MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
October 2018
Key Highlights
In This Issue
Market Outlook for the month
Investment Ideas
• Technical & Derivatives Outlook
• Commodities Market Outlook
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• PMS
Nifty witnesses biggest monthly correction in 31 months
Monsoon season ends with 9% deficit
Sectors in Focus: Consumer, IT, Pharma
Dear Investor,
Equity markets witnessed one of its worst months in the
last couple of years. The Nifty 50 index declined 6.4% after
rising by 3% in August and 6% in July. Nifty Midcap Index
Global Market
Index
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
28-Sep-18
36,227
10,930
7,510
26,458
8,046
27,788
MoM (%)YoY(%)
-6.3
14.0
-6.4
1.0
1.9
-0.8
-0.4
11.7
1.9
18.1
23.9
0.8
lost a massive 14% in September, resuming its
underperformance after briefly outperforming large-caps
in August.
Indian market witnessed sharp correction in September amidst the deteriorating
macros i.e. rising crude prices, depreciating INR, tightening liquidity and ILFS debt
default. FIIs continued to remain net sellers in domestic equity, selling to the tune
of Rs9,622 crore in September while DIIs inflow was robust at Rs12,504 crore.
In September, barring BSE IT (up 1.9% MoM) all other sectoral indices closed in red
with BSE Realty (down 21%), BSE Auto (down 13%) and BSE Telecom (down 13%)
being the major losers.
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Mth
Pre. Mth
Monsoon season ends with 9% deficit having received 804mm of rainfall between
1st June and 30th Sept, 2018. Further, as per the government, Kharif foodgrain output
is estimated to be 0.6% higher YoY in 2018-19 season.
Despite the meltdown in September, India has stood out in CY18 with significant
outperformance v/s other emerging markets despite the list of concerns. However,
it has happened so far without any tangible and meaningful earnings rebound, even
as expectations for earnings revival stay lofty. This has indeed expanded valuation
premium v/s both historical averages and EM peers. Elevated bond earnings yield
spread is not helping either.
Nifty trades at 20x FY19E EPS, off from the recent highs but still rich. Our preference
still remains with large-caps, given the premium of mid-caps to large-caps amid an
environment of challenging macros, potential slowdown in domestic equity flows
and a forthcoming busy political calendar. Given this, we continue to advocate a
strategy centered around earnings visibility with incremental higher allocation to
defensives like Consumer, IT and Pharma. We continue liking the overall Consumption
theme even as near-term valuations in most of these names still remain expensive.
Siddhartha Khemka
Vice President- Head - Retail Research
IIP
CPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
6.6%
3.69%
8.02%
72.49
82.72
30296
7.0%
4.17%
7.95%
71
77.42
30226
Thought for the month
Investing is a strange business. It’s the only
one we know of, where the more
expensive the product
get, the more
customers want
to buy
them.
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Equity Investment Ideas
Must Act
October 2018
Investment Ideas
Growth in Jewelry segment picked up in 2QFY19, bucking the previous quarter's muted
trend, led by (a) market share expansion owing to exciting new collection launches and
Titan Company
CMP*:
Target:
INR 805
INR 1,070
(b) extended diamond studded activation.
Watches segment, too, performed strongly in the quarter, aided by new product addi-
tions and brand-building activities.
Revenue growth opportunity of 20% is immense and far superior to peers. Also, the
margin trajectory appears to be on an uptrend, as revenue is being driven by SSSG. We
expect 28% EPS CAGR over FY18-20E
BUY
Britannia is the market leader in the biscuits category which contributes over 85% of
consolidated revenue.
Rapidly expanding distribution, continuing investment in R&D, rapid pace of new launches
and significant expansion of its own manufacturing indicate immense growth prospects.
Opportunity beyond biscuits is also substantially high. Over the years, it has forayed into
other bakery items and dairy products.
Continuing premiumization, significant incremental cost savings and a favourable com-
modity cost outlook mean further EBITDA margin expansion prospects are bright as well.
We expect revenue/PAT CAGR of 15%/22% over FY18-20E
Britannia
CMP*:
Target:
INR 5,823
INR 6,870
BUY
Board has accepted the request of Ms Chanda Kochhar for early retirement with imme-
ICICI Bank
CMP*:
Target:
INR 305
INR 380
diate effect and appointed Mr Sandeep Bakhshi as MD & CEO for a period of five years
until 3rd October 2023.
We believe this removes a major overhang on the stock and will likely help improve
market perception of transparency and governance at ICICI Bank.
The upcoming results announcement will provide much-needed clarity on the bank's
BUY
performance and the revised business strategy under the new leadership.
We expect the bank to deliver 1.1% RoA/11% RoE by FY20, which should expand
further thereafter.
Tech Mahindra has strong capabilities in Communications (nearly half of current revenue)
and works with most of the major global service providers.
The trajectory for Communications looks positive going forward given the deal flow and
wins. TECHM is confident of sequential acceleration starting 2Q, leading to growth in
FY19 over the previous year.
Green shoots are being witnessed in the areas of network modernization and 5G, which
will pose broad-based opportunities for the company.
It is also likely to result in margin expansion, as it has in previous quarters, as early invest-
ments fructify.
Tech Mahindra
CMP*:
Target:
INR 745
INR 880
BUY
Data as on 28th Sep 2018
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Technical & Derivatives Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
October 2018
Technical & Derivatives Outlook
Technical Outlook
Nifty index failed to surpass previous months high and corrected sharply towards
10850 levels. It had a volatile move as traded in a wider range of 11751 to 10850
zones with negative bias. It formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern on monthly scale
followed by Lower highs - Lower highs formation on weekly scale. It has been
facing strong resistance at upper band of the rising channel and supports are gradu-
ally shifting lower. In the last week of the Month it tested the lows of 10850 levels
which is 50% retracement of the entire up swing from 9952 to 11760 zones. It
formed a Bearish Candle on a monthly, weekly and daily scale which suggests that
bears are putting pressure in the market. Now it needs to surpass immediate resis-
tance of 11080 and 11171 levels to witness a bounce towards 11333 and 11400
zones else a failure move above 11080 and a decisive hold below 10850 (50%
retracement) may take it towards 10650 (61.80% retracement) and even towards
10500 zones. In the month of September, market volatility spiked due to depreciat-
ing INR, Crude prices and concern over the Global Trade War. Buying interest was
only seen in selective Pharma, Metal and IT stocks while selling pressure was seen in
most of the PSU, NBFC, Auto, FMCG, Mid and Small caps counters.
Strategy-
Strategy
Nifty has gone into bear grip and selling pressure is seen at every resis-
tance zones. Now it needs to surpass immediate crucial resistance of 11080 and
11171 levels to witness a bounce towards 11333 and 11400 zones else a failure
move above 11080 and a decisive hold below 10850 may take it towards 10650
and even towards 10500 zones.
Nifty Monthly
Banknifty Weekly
Derivative Strategy
Nifty - BEAR PUT SPREAD - Oct Series
View : Hedge / Negative to range bound move
Buy 1 lot of 10900 Put @ 169 ; Sell 1 lot of 10600 Call @ 83
Net Premium paid : 86 points,Max Risk : 86 Points
Max Reward : 214 Points; Margin Required : Rs. 95000/- Approx
Rationale:
It has been making lower top - lower bottom and bounce is not happening as it is finding tough to surpass any immediate hurdle zones
Spurt in VIX, shift of resistances to lower zones, lower Put Call Ratio suggests weakness could intact or bounce could be sold
Previous swing high of 11171 zones could continue to act as an immediate hurdle
Maximum Call OI is at 11500 while meaningful Call writing at 11200 suggests as supply zones
Thus, continue to be with Bear Put Spread to protect the downside or to play the negative bias of the market
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Commodities & Currency Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
October 2018
Commodities & Currency Outlook
Crude Oil
Oil prices are trending higher based on not only supply and demand fundamentals, but also on geopolitical uncertainty. The oil market has
been caught between tales of two markets. The first is U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil exports come into effect in November which is bullish
for prices. The other is on-going trade dispute between U.S. and China could escalate and drag down the global economy and bearish for
crude. Still markets seemed to give more importance to the bullish news.
US-China Trade War:
The larger effect on oil market would come from negative impact on the global economy. However, the more tariffs continue to spiral, the
more likely it is that there will be negative impact on economy and oil demand of world's two largest oil consumers. The trade war could hit
oil and gas markets in several ways. First, the back-and-forth escalation of tariffs could drag down economic growth. The first round of tariffs,
which hit $50 billion in Chinese goods, targeted a relatively narrow set of products. But the latest $200 billion in tariffs will raise the cost for
a wide array of consumer goods in U.S., which could slow economy. Second, oil and gas are likely to be specifically affected by the trade war,
which wasn't the case in previous rounds of tariffs. However, the more tariffs continue to spiral, more likely it is that there will be a negative
impact on economy and oil demand of world's two largest oil consumers. First, the back-and-forth escalation of tariffs could drag down
economic growth. The latest $200 billion in tariffs will raise cost for a wide array of consumer goods in U.S., which could slow economy.
Second, oil and gas are likely to be specifically affected by trade war, which wasn't case in previous rounds of tariffs.
Supply and Demand Picture:
The supply picture right now is currently looking worrisome, with Venezuela and Iran supporting to drive prices higher. U.S. shale can partially
make up difference, but the explosive growth from shale drillers is starting to slowdown, in part because of pipeline bottlenecks. This means
that there isn't the same upward pressure on WTI as there is on Brent, largely because infrastructure bottlenecks in the shale patch keep supplies
somewhat stuck within U.S.. Six-month Brent calendar spreads are trading in a backwardation of around $2 per barrel, which is comparable
to the corresponding point in Sep 2007. But hedge funds have amassed large bullish position in Brent crude, amounting to almost 470 million
barrels, betting prices will head even higher. Saudi Arabia has officially reported that it could cover for Iran's losses, even if most of Iran's
production goes offline. With output already up to about 10.4 mb/d, that leaves significantly smaller pile of spare capacity than is commonly
thought.
Natural gas prices surged to highest and could spike this winter if there is a severe cold snap. Gas stockpiles are expected to end at 3,330 to
3,370 billion cubic feet, lowest level for an October month-end since 2005, making market vulnerable to potential winter supply disruptions.
However, any fall in natural gas's demand estimates might drag the premium in the future.
At a minimum, it appears that bearish sentiment from within oil and gas industry has evaporated. The escalating U.S.-China trade war, and
weakening currencies in major Asian oil importers are all expected to cap rising oil prices as global economic and oil demand growth could
suffer if Brent crude breaks above the $85-$90 band. For next month, we expect crude to trade between WTI $80-$85 as markets remained
supported by bearish sentiments.
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MOSt Multi Cap
For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip
HDFC Bank
Bajaj Auto
L&T
Hindustan Unilever
HDFC Standard LiFe
Future Consumer
KEI
L&T Fin Holdings
Subros
Cash
Total
Data as on 28th Sep 2018
MOSt Multi Cap , MOSt Smart
Build a Portfolio
October 2018
Long Term Investors
One year and above
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10%
10%
10%
10%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
35%
100%
In
: Subros
We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach with the
following characteristics:
Corpus requirement of INR 10 Lakhs
40-50% in Large-cap and 50-60% in Mid-cap
15 companies to invest at maximum, 10 minimum
Large-cap stocks are suitable for SIP investments as well
Adheres to our QGLP philosophy
CMP
2006
2687
1267
1608
392
39
358
130
305
Out : Shriram Trans., Repco Home
Nifty Option Maximiser - Monthly Short Strangle Strategy
Features:
Benefit from time decay and range bound move
Execution:
Nifty 300-400 points, "Out of the Money" call and Put writing/selling at the beginning of new series
Advantage:
Benefit from Time Decay as the day passes premium declines, High probability to get the premium benefits
Disadvantage:
Unlimited risk if Nifty moves sharply on either side.
Margin Requirement:
Particular
Nifty lot size
Margin Required (Span + Exposure)
to execute 1 pair of short strangle strategy
Risk:
Unlimited risk, need to follow strict stop loss
Reward:
40 to 60 points based on the premium at the beginning of series as per the Time value and Volatility
Particular
Amount Required for strategy
Premium received on average
Nifty lot size
Gain
ROI
: Amount
: Rs. 95,000
: 40 to 60 points
: 75
: 50*75 =Rs. 3,750 (Taking the premium of 50 points)
: (3,750/95,000) = 3.9%
: Values
: 75
: Rs. 95,000
5
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MOSt PMS
October 2018
MOSt PMS
Performance since inception
Large Cap PMS:- VALUE STRATEGY- An amount of 1 cr. Invested in March 2003 is worth INR 24.37 cr (compounded return of 22.83%)
Multi Cap PMS:- NTDOP STRATEGY- Amount of 1 cr. Invested in December 2007 is worth INR 5.64 cr (compounded return of 17.33%)
Multi Cap PMS:- ASK IEP STRATEGY- Amount of 1 cr. Invested in January 2010 is worth INR 4.63 cr (compounded return of 19.30%)
Mid & Small Cap PMS:- MOAMC IOP- Amount of 1 cr. Invested in Feb 2010 is worth INR 2.75 cr (compounded return of 12.45%)
Latest Performance of all OUR PMS (Portfolio Management Services) strategies. (As on 30th September, 2018)
Performance as on 30th September, 2018
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New Fund- ASK India 2025 Equity Fund AIF
October 2018
New Fund- ASK India 2025 Equity Fund AIF
(New product offering)
Other Costs: Above charges are excluding all applicable taxes and statutory levies, which is be applicable. Operating Expenses at actuals
subject to threshold of 0.25% p.a.
*First performance fees will be charged at the end of 3 years from Final closing and then annually thereafter.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
Analyst ownership of 1% or more securities
No
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Bond, NCDs and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private
Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products
* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
The existing registration no(s) of MOSL would be used until receipt of new MOFSL registration numbers.