MOSt
Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter
October 2018
Key Highlights
In This Issue
•
Market Outlook for the month
•
Investment Ideas
• Technical & Derivatives Outlook
• Commodities Market Outlook
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• PMS
Nifty witnesses biggest monthly correction in 31 months
Monsoon season ends with 9% deficit
Sectors in Focus: Consumer, IT, Pharma
Dear Investor,
Equity markets witnessed one of its worst months in the
last couple of years. The Nifty 50 index declined 6.4% after
rising by 3% in August and 6% in July. Nifty Midcap Index
Global Market
Index
Sensex
Nifty
FTSE
Dow
Nasdaq
Hang Sang
28-Sep-18
36,227
10,930
7,510
26,458
8,046
27,788
MoM (%)YoY(%)
-6.3
14.0
-6.4
1.0
1.9
-0.8
-0.4
11.7
1.9
18.1
23.9
0.8
lost a massive 14% in September, resuming its
underperformance after briefly outperforming large-caps
in August.
Indian market witnessed sharp correction in September amidst the deteriorating
macros i.e. rising crude prices, depreciating INR, tightening liquidity and ILFS debt
default. FIIs continued to remain net sellers in domestic equity, selling to the tune
of Rs9,622 crore in September while DIIs inflow was robust at Rs12,504 crore.
In September, barring BSE IT (up 1.9% MoM) all other sectoral indices closed in red
with BSE Realty (down 21%), BSE Auto (down 13%) and BSE Telecom (down 13%)
being the major losers.
Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Mth
Pre. Mth
Monsoon season ends with 9% deficit having received 804mm of rainfall between
1st June and 30th Sept, 2018. Further, as per the government, Kharif foodgrain output
is estimated to be 0.6% higher YoY in 2018-19 season.
Despite the meltdown in September, India has stood out in CY18 with significant
outperformance v/s other emerging markets despite the list of concerns. However,
it has happened so far without any tangible and meaningful earnings rebound, even
as expectations for earnings revival stay lofty. This has indeed expanded valuation
premium v/s both historical averages and EM peers. Elevated bond earnings yield
spread is not helping either.
Nifty trades at 20x FY19E EPS, off from the recent highs but still rich. Our preference
still remains with large-caps, given the premium of mid-caps to large-caps amid an
environment of challenging macros, potential slowdown in domestic equity flows
and a forthcoming busy political calendar. Given this, we continue to advocate a
strategy centered around earnings visibility with incremental higher allocation to
defensives like Consumer, IT and Pharma. We continue liking the overall Consumption
theme even as near-term valuations in most of these names still remain expensive.
Siddhartha Khemka
Vice President- Head - Retail Research
IIP
CPI
10 Year Yield
USD/ INR
Crude ($)
Gold (10 gms)
6.6%
3.69%
8.02%
72.49
82.72
30296
7.0%
4.17%
7.95%
71
77.42
30226
Thought for the month
Investing is a strange business. It’s the only
one we know of, where the more
expensive the product
get, the more
customers want
to buy
them.
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