Weekly Fundamental Report - Pulses & Spices

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

Market Overview

Turmeric futures traded on positive note as speculators short

covered their position amid lower arrival and strong demand

from the spot market.

Black Pepper futures gained sharply on speculative buying

after being volatile during the trading session. Strong

domestic demand against the tight supply in the domestic

market mainly influenced the prices here.

Jeera futures rose on the back of rising demand from the

overseas countries. As the export demand of the spice

commodity from India is firm and expected to be strong amid

uncertainty about Syrian crop's arrival in the international

markets zoom the prices towards the upside.

Chana futures rose in futures trading as speculators enlarged

their positions on rising spot market demand. Rising spot

market demand amid decline in arrivals mainly pushed up

chana futures prices

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

Market Watch

AGRO

CHANA

CHILLY

GUAR GUM

GUAR SEED

JEERA

PEPPER

SOYA BEAN

SOYA OIL

TURMERIC

WHEAT

CONTRACT

19-Aug-11

OPEN

2936

8360

12930

4107

15400

28400

2344

658.2

7234

1216

HIGH

3066

8734

14754

4678

16910

29959

2445

670.6

7420

1216

LOW

2900

8252

12811

4107

15124

27921

2306

652.95

6986

1199

3060

8734

14754

4678

16743

29640

2436.5

669.8

7390

1206

CHG

124

374

1824

571

1343

1240

92.5

11.6

156

% CHG

4.05

4.28

12.36

12.21

8.02

4.18

3.80

1.73

2.11

-0.83

230230

13845

11145

167440

19134

10613

89100

163340

8050

36760

CHG

202260

9040

9200

145790

13941

7192

69820

127130

1335

22780

%CHG

87.85

65.29

82.55

87.07

85.67

67.77

78.36

77.83

16.58

61.97

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

PEPPER

Black pepper prices gained by Rs 488 per quintal in the national capital due to strong demand from retailers and amid

inadequate stocks.

Fundamental Outlook

India registered a six per cent growth in black pepper exports in the first quarter of the current financial year; The

country shipped 4,460 tons, as against 4,200 tons in the same period of the last financial year. Vietnam, the largest

producer and exporter of the spice, shipped 35,000 tons during April-June.

With Vietnam exporting 68,000 tons (black and white together) in the first six months of this calendar year, traders

in other producing countries and importers in the West, as well as in the Asia-Pacific, have been debating over the

available stock for the second half of the year.

Since West Asian and European buyers have been staying away from the Vietnamese market, prices have

remained flat and are hovering around $5,500 a tons for the 500 gm/litre variety.

The most surprising factor is that in spite of the lacklustre demand, prices have been firm in the domestic market,

as farmers are selling in a staggered manner. Brazil, silent for over a month, is back in action and is aggressively

selling till the end of this year at a price tag of $6,200 tons for the B-Asta grade.

JEERA

Jeera prices moved up by Rs 362 to Rs 16,743 per quintal in futures trade on fresh buying by traders on pick-up in

demand in the spot market. Some exports enquiries in domestic markets also influenced jeera futures prices.

Fundamental Outlook

Reports of adverse weather conditions in other major producers like Turkey and Syria have created apprehensions

of lower output there and a possibility of delayed arrivals, originally scheduled from end-June onwards. Syrian

production expected at 40000 tons and that in Turkey lower at 12-15000 tons.

Indian production expected at 28-30 lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tons. Better Indian quality and

availability of stocks could shift the Gulf demand ahead of Ramzan towards India in the coming weeks.

Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the estimated exports of Spices for the period April-March 2010-

11 have risen by 5% from 502,750 MT in 2009-10 to 525,750 MT in 2010-11. Jeera exports fell by 35% from 49,750

MT to 32,500 MT during the same period.

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

TURMERIC

Turmeric futures prices gained by Rs 244 at Rs 7390 in futures trading after speculators short covered their position

amid a strong trend at the spot market.

Fundamental Outlook

The total carryover stocks of turmeric in the current year are likely to be projected at 13-15 lakh bags (1 bag = 60

kgs) against 4-5 lakh bags that were reported last year. This was mainly due to strong production in the previous

year.

The total production of turmeric in the current year is estimated at 65-68 lakh bags against 47 lakh bags of the last

year.

Sowing has started in the growing areas in Andhra Pradesh and the progress is reportedly satisfactory. Good

Monsoon progress is also reportedly keeping the sowing activities proper.

The area sown would however depend on the market rates and if the falling trend continues, traders expect the

sowing area may fall as farmers may shift to other lucrative crops like cotton, soybean etc. Good stocks and

increased selling pressure along with weak demand in the mandis have kept trend weak for the commodity over the

last few weeks. The sowing period is from June-August and harvesting begins in January.

CHANA

Chana futures rose due to rising spot demand and on weak arrivals from the spot market. At National Commodity

Exchange and Derivatives Chana prices traded on positive note by Rs 32 at Rs 3060 per quintal

Fundamental Outlook

Traders expect that with rising Festive demand, moderate firmness will remain in short term with intermittent

profit booking at the higher levels.

The latest Govt estimates put Pulses production at 18.09 million tons in 2010-11 vs 14.66 million tons the previous

year thus raising production estimates by 23%.

With Monsoon picking up in Pulses growing states of MP, AP and Maharashtra, the overall production can be

expected to remain high. The short term trend is likely to remain very volatile with trading activities set to rise in

coming weeks in the mandis.

The short term trend is likely to remain very volatile with trading activities set to rise in coming weeks in the

mandis.

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

SOYA BEAN

Soyabean futures closed higher. Improved export demand and outside market support pushed prices higher. News that

China has purchased U.S. soyabean and may be looking for more helped rally the market.

Fundamental Outlook

In the domestic market, sowing has almost come to an end and export enquiries for the meal is emerging across

spot markets which is supporting the price rise.

Area sown under soybean increased to 73.379 lakh hectares versus 64.587 lakh hectares while the rains in the next

month is going to be very crucial for the crop growth.

Decline in soybean crop by around 7% in china has resulted in export enquiries in U.S. Weather conditions are

recovering at few places while concerns are still prevailing in U.S which supported the prices to gain. Sale of

around 80% of the production from Brazil and Argentina is also supportive for prices.

Soybean exports comprised about 68 percent of all US agricultural exports to China from October to May.

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

TECHNICAL VIEW

Pepper NCDEX August 2011

NCDEX pepper traded on positive note in the last week. We expect the prices to trade range bound for the coming

week. Support of 26500/26000 will be important for the prices, any break below this level will initate the downtrend.On

the upside, if prices take off the level of 31000/31300, it will confirm the bullish trend ahead.

The above views are based on Technical analysis and could differ from our fundamental views

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

Chana Ncdex August 2011

Prices continuously remained above the trend line and we expect the prices to continue its uptrend. Support of

2880/2800 will be crucial level in the coming week. Any dip towards the downside can be used to create long position for

the level of 3100/3150.

The above views are based on Technical analysis and could differ from our fundamental views

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

Turmeric Ncdex August 2011

Turmeric prices are likely to trade lower this week. They will take resistance at 8200/8110. While below these levels,

prices will see the lower levels of 7000/6950.

The above views are based on Technical analysis and could differ from our fundamental views

WEEKLY FUNDAMENTAL REPORT - PULSES & SPICES

July 25

–July 29

, 2011

Guar seed Ncdex August 2011

The Prices Continued to trade in an upward trend. We expect the prices to continue this trend. As long as prices

sustain above 4100, they will be bullish. Prices might come down to test support at this level in this week.

The above views are based on Technical analysis and could differ from our fundamental views

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