August 2011
the oil & gas monthly
S
UMMARY
-
July
2011
Special Section:
1QFY12 result updates of 1) Petronet LNG; 2) RIL; 3)
Cairn India; 4) GAIL India and 5) ONGC.
Brent July-11 avg. 116, but US inventory data shows weakness:
Brent crude price traded above USD110/bbl throughout July-11, despite
IEA stock releases. Local oversupply conditions kept the June average
Brent-WTI differential high at ~USD18/bbl. US inventory data showing
weakness particularly due to increasing inventory levels in auto fuels
indicating lower demand.
GRMs marginally up MoM to USD7.8/bbl:
Though GRM in July-11 at
USD7.8/bbl was down v/s USD8.5/bbl in 1QFY12, it is up on MoM basis.
Sustained middle distillate spreads and higher spreads for heavy ends is
keeping the GRM resilient. Going, forward global economic scenario will
weigh high for the sustainability of the GRMs.
Decline in margins of polymers and polyesters:
Polymer margins
declined meaningfully while polyester margins were soft on MoM basis.
Lower demand due to de-stocking is impacting polymers while polyester
weakness can be attributed to weak cotton prices.
Valuation and view:
Resilient GRM, higher Arab Light-Heavy differential
augur well for complex refiners like RIL. Weaker inventory data from US
to put downward pressure on oil prices; positive for oil PSU's as under
recoveries decline however negative for pure oil plays like Cairn India.
We expect oil PSU's to be in positive territory in near term as oil price
declines while at the current stock price, risk-reward favorable in RIL.
G
ASO
L
INE
T
ANK
Special Report .............................. 2
Oil Market Trends ......................... 7
GRM and Product Spreads ............ 9
Petchem Margin Trend ............... 11
Key India Statistics ..................... 14
News Updates ............................ 16
Stock Price Performances ........... 18
Global Peer Valuations ................. 19
Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Ministry
of Petroleum, PPAC, various companies
K
EY
T
RENDS
Jul-11: Polymer margins dip (INR/kg)
PE
50
40
30
20
10
0
PP
PVC
Reuters Singapore GRM (USD/BBL)
12
8
4
0
Jul-08
Valuations: Coverage Universe
M Cap
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
US$b FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E
Integrated/Upstream
Reliance Inds* 55.4 11.2 10.2
9.5
7.6
6.9
6.2
ONGC
54.1 11.7
9.8
7.8
4.5
3.7
3.0
Cairn India
11.7
8.3
6.5
7.4
6.2
4.6
4.2
OMC's
IOC
18.2 10.5
9.5
8.8
8.2
6.6
6.3
BPCL
5.5 15.3 12.5 11.8
10.7
8.5
8.0
HPCL
3.0
8.7
9.6
9.6
12.4
8.5
6.4
Independent Refiners
MRPL
2.7 10.2 11.3 10.5
6.2
7.4
6.5
CPCL
0.7
5.9
6.0
4.2
6.4
6.1
4.7
Gas Com panies
GAIL**
12.3 14.4 12.7 12.0
8.5
7.9
7.9
GSPL
1.3 11.1 12.6 12.2
7.9
7.8
7.5
Petronet LNG
2.8 18.4 13.1 13.5
12.3
9.4
8.6
IGL
1.3 22.0 18.7 16.1
12.6
9.5
8.1
*No. of shares adj. for treasury shares; **P/E adj. for investments
P/B (x)
FY11 FY12E FY13E
1.7
2.1
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.8
0.8
2.7
2.9
4.8
5.8
1.5
1.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.0
1.6
0.7
2.4
2.4
3.8
4.8
1.2
1.6
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.9
1.4
0.7
2.1
2.1
3.2
4.1
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
1-M Relative Stock Performance
Guj Gas
IGL
Cairn
IOC
BPCL
HPCL
GAIL
OIL
ONGC
RIL
(10)
(4)
0
10
(1)
(2)
7
(5)
5
4
9
11
19
20
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432

S
PECIAL
R
EPORT
Petronet LNG
1QFY12 Results Update
1QFY12 results much better than expected:
Petronet LNG reported EBITDA of INR4.4b
(up 77% YoY and 25% QoQ) for 1QFY12, significantly higher than our estimate of INR3.8b
primarily due to higher re-gasification volumes, marketing margins and operating efficiency.
Capacity utilization reaches 110%; volume up 6% QoQ and 40% YoY:
As against
our estimate of 126tbtu, the company reported total re-gasified volume of 133tbtu
(2.65mmt) for 1QFY12 v/s 126tbtu (2.5mmt) in 4QFY11 and 95tbtu (1.9mmt) in 1QFY11.
On annualized basis, it achieved total volume of ~10.5mmtpa. 1QFY12 volume of 133tbtu
included 90tbtu (1.8mmt) of long-term, 18tbtu (0.4mmt) of pure re-gas and 25tbtu
(0.5mmt) of spot volumes.
Strong marketing margins on short-term cargo:
According to our calculations, Petronet
has earned marketing margins of ~INR31/mmbtu on its spot cargo over and above its base
re-gasification charges of INR33.34/mmbtu. Strong gas demand and lack of adequate
supplies in India will help Petronet LNG to maintain its marketing margin trend.
Key assumptions:
For Dahej, we are increasing our FY12/FY13 volume estimates from
10.5/10.75mmtpa to 10.6/11mmtpa. For Kochi, we factor commissioning in 2HFY13 and
model volume at 0.25mmtpa in FY13 and 1mmtpa in FY14. We assume 5% annual escalation
in re-gasification charges till FY13 (similar to prior years) and no increase from FY14. We are
increasing our marketing margin assumption from INR5/mmbtu to INR17/mmbtu (~40%
lower than the last two quarters' average).
Increasing estimates and target price to INR180; Buy:
We are increasing our FY12/
FY13 EPS by ~23% to INR13.1/12.7, led by higher volume and marketing margin assumptions.
We are increasing our target price to INR180 (from INR150) - the average of two valuation
methodologies (1) P/E (13.5x FY13E EPS, INR171/share), and (2) DCF (INR189/share).
We like the stock due to long-term earnings visibility and continued capex on core business.
Maintain
Buy.
Also refer our detailed report
dated 20 July 2011
August 2011
2

S
PECIAL
R
EPORT
Reliance Industries
1QFY12 Results Update
Reliance Industries reported 1QFY12 EBITDA was largely in-line at INR99b (v/s est. of
INR103b), up 6% YoY and 1% QoQ. Despite a drop in KG-D6 production and petchem
margins, operating profit remained strong due to higher GRM (1QFY11 GRM of USD10.3/
bbl; a 12 quarter high level).
GRM stood at USD10.3/bbl (in-line), petchem EBIT at INR22b (v/s est. of INR24b) and
E&P EBIT at INR14.8b (v/s est. of INR15b). KG-D6 gas production averaged 48.6mmscmd
(v/s est. of 49 and 4QFY11 avg. at 51mmscmd).
For RIL, to achieve our projected FY12 EPS of INR75.3/sh, performance of refining business
(44% of FY12 EBIT) has become more critical, as we do not expect any meaningful
positive surprise in the petchem 34% of FY12 EBIT) and E&P businesses (22% of FY12
EBIT). We model an average GRM of 9.8/bbl for 9M FY12 v/s USD10.3/bbl in 1QFY12.
Cash deployment challenge remains:
By end-FY12, RIL will have a total of gross cash
and equiv. of ~USD22b ex-treasury shares (1) cash balance of USD10b, (2) impending
payment of USD5.2b from BP in FY12 and (3) FY12 estimated fcf of USD7b and (4)
Also refer our detailed report
dated 25 July 2011
treasury shares worth USD6.8b. Without deployment (organic/inorganic), the cash will
keep impacting the return ratios (low cost of debt will prevent RIL from repaying its
USD15b debt). In terms of its capex plans, apart from USD3b polyester expansion
management is yet to decide on the 'zero date' for other projects viz. off-gases cracker
and petcoke gasification plant.
Key things to watch would be (1) volume ramp-up clarity for KG-D6, (2) clarity on 7-year
income tax holiday for KG-D6 gas (we model tax holiday); (3) margin trend in refining and
petchem, (4) deployment of surplus cash and (2) update on its BWA and retail foray.
Maintain Neutral with SOTP based target price of INR1,025:
We are reducing our
FY12/FY13 EPS by ~1.6% to factor in the 1) lower petchem margin assumptions, and 2)
lower KG-D6 gas production at 48.4/48mmscmd in FY12/FY13 v/s 49mmscmd earlier. Though
stock clearly lacks any triggers in the near term, risk-reward is turning favorable at the
current price, in our view. We maintain our SOTP based target price at INR1,025. Maintain
Neutral.
August 2011
3

S
PECIAL
R
EPORT
Cairn India
1QFY12 Results Update
Cairn India reported 1QFY12 EBITDA at INR31.7b (v/s est of INR34.9b). EBITDA was
lower than estimates primarily due to commencement of profit petroleum sharing with
government during the quarter. Cairn shared INR1.9b of profit petroleum with the
government (v/s our assumption of nil). Reported PAT stood at INR27.3b (v/s est of
INR26.2b) as tax rate stood at 3.2% v/s our est of 14.7%. Company indicated that if
royalty were to be cost recoverable, then the cumulative impact on revenues and the PAT
would have been INR12.9b till March 2011.
Rajasthan ramp-up stuck for government approvals:
Government approval will be
required to ramp-up Mangala production (from 125 to 150kbpd) as well for start of Bhagyam
production. We expect approval to come after Cairn agrees on Royalty and cess issues
(likely by September 2011).
Crude price realization from Rajasthan block at USD104.5/bbl was largely in-line, implying a
10.9% discount to the Brent price.
Royalty recoverability inevitable:
Cairn India will conduct a postal ballot of shareholders
to decide on the acceptance / rejection of govt. pre-conditions on royalty recoverability.
We believe that eventually the royalty recoverability will be accepted by the company as
Cairn Energy and Vedanta together hold 80.7% of the stake and are likely to vote in
favour of recoverability.
Cutting estimates and target price:
We model Cairn to pay the cess as per government
demand at INR2,625/MT. We are cutting our FY12/FY13 EPS by ~24% to factor in the
royalty recoverability and government profit sharing from FY12 itself. We model Brent oil
price at USD107/95/90/85/bbl in FY12/FY13/FY14/long-term in our estimates. For every
USD10/bbl change in oil price our target price increases by INR28/sh. We are revising our
SOTP based target price to INR305/bbl. Maintain
Neutral.
Also refer our detailed report
dated 26 July 2011
August 2011
4

S
PECIAL
R
EPORT
GAIL (India)
1QFY12 Results Update
GAIL India's EBITDA for 1QFY12 was in line with our estimate at INR15.6b, up 8% YoY and
22% QoQ. The following segments contributed positively to EBITDA: (1) transmission - INR7.6b
v/s our estimate of INR7b, (2) gas trading - INR3b v/s our estimate of INR2.8b, and (3) LPG
and liquid HC - INR2.5b v/s our estimate of INR1.7b. However, the following had a neutralization
effect: (1) petchem - INR2.9b v/s our estimate of INR3.7b, and (2) E&P - write-off of INR47m.
Reported PAT was INR9.8b (v/s our estimate of INR9.6b), up 11% YoY and 26% QoQ. Key
highlights are:
Subsidy burden was INR6.8b v/s our estimate of INR6.9b.
Gas transmission volume was ~117mmscmd, up 1% YoY and down 3% QoQ (v/s our
estimate of 120mmscmd).
Petchem sales of 88kt were below our estimate of 120kt.
GAIL capitalized INR16.7b capex in 1QFY12 and the management indicated that it will be
capitalizing ~INR60b in FY12 in the transmission business.
Despite the headwinds on incremental gas availability, GAIL is continuing with its pipeline
expansion, the benefits of which we believe will come only in the long term. In the near term,
capitalization of its pipelines will result in pressure on return ratios due to non-commensurate
increase in transmission volume. On the petchem side, though it is doubling its capacity, earnings
contribution is unlikely before FY14.
Valuation and view:
Of the two options: (1) wait for gas and then build network, or (2) build
network, which will enable gas sourcing, GAIL is adopting the second. We like the management's
strategy, as it secures long-term business prospects. However, we have concerns on the earnings
growth over the next two years. We maintain Neutral and await more clarity on the gas
volume build-up, as the transmission business accounts for >60% of GAIL's earnings. Our SOTP-
based target price stands at INR455 (marginal increase from INR450 due to increase in the
value of listed investments).
Also refer our detailed report
dated 28 July 2011
August 2011
5

S
PECIAL
R
EPORT
ONGC
1QFY12 Results Update
ONGC reported EBITDA of INR93b for 1QFY12 (v/s our estimate of INR101b), up 15% YoY
and 28% QoQ. PAT was INR41b (v/s our estimate of INR50b), up 12% YoY and 59% QoQ.
PAT was significantly below our estimate due to (1) higher DD&A at INR41b v/s our estimate
of INR35b due to dry well write-off at Andaman deep-water blocks, (2) higher statutory levies
at INR37b v/s our estimate of INR34b, (3) lower sales at INR162b (v/s our estimate of INR165b)
due to lower than estimated sales volume, partially compensated by higher other income at
INR9.3b (v/s our estimate of INR7.7b), led by higher cash balance.
Subsidy payout of INR120b; net realization at USD48.1/bbl:
Gross realization was
USD121/bbl in 1QFY12, while the subsidy payout was USD73/bbl, resulting in net realization
of USD48.1/bbl (v/s our estimate of USD47.9/bbl), up 1% YoY and 26% QoQ.
DD&A higher due to higher depletion and dry wells:
ONGC's DD&A expenses in
1QFY12 were INR41.2b (v/s our estimate of INR35.5b), up 32% YoY and down 14%
QoQ. The increase in DD&A expenses was led by write-off on account of dry wells at
Andaman, where ONGC drilled five deep-water wells.
Cairn likely to accept ONGC's demand of royalty recoverability:
On the royalty issue
with Cairn India, we now expect Cairn to accept ONGC's demand of royalty recoverability.
Valuation and view:
Despite the government subjecting ONGC to a harsh subsidy sharing
policy, its PAT recorded 4% CAGR in the last five years. We are positive on ONGC due to likely
rationalization of subsidy sharing and potential reserve accretion from its large E&P acreage.
ONGC trades at a ~50% discount to its global peers on EV/BOE (1P basis). We model Brent oil
price of USD107 / 95 / 90 / 85/bbl in FY12 / FY13 / FY14 / long term, and upstream sharing at
38.7% in FY12 and 33% from FY13. We are cutting our FY12 / FY13 earnings estimates by
~2.8% to model higher DD&A expenses. Our current SOTP-based target price for ONGC is
INR346. Maintain
Buy.
Also refer our detailed report
dated 28 July 2011
August 2011
6

O
IL
M
ARKET
T
RENDS
Brent averaged USD116/bbl in July-11
Despite MoM decline Arab Light-Heavy differential strong at USD4.2/bbl
NYMEX WTI forward curve (USD/BBL)
Expectation of continued oversupply at WTI is keeping the
forward curve in backwardation.
OPEC and IEA likely to avoid confrontation and negotiate on
supply and pricing issues.
Brent oil price trend (USD/BBL)
July-11 average at USD116/bbl (+2% MoM and +56% YoY).
Brent traded above USD110/bbl throughout the month.
160
120
80
40
0
Jul-03
160
120
80
40
0
Jul-01
WTI Spot
M ar-08
M ar-04
M ar-10
M ar-06
Jul-11
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-05
Jul-09
Jul-13
Jul-17
Crude price differentials (USD/BBL)
Arab L-H differentials declined 21% MoM to US$4.2/bbl; while
WTI-Maya remained negative for the second month at USD-
5.2/bbl.
2QFY12 Arab L-H at USD4.2/bbl (-16% QoQ, +50% YoY).
A rab L-H
WT I - M aya (R H S)
Brent and dollar index correlation
Crude prices remained strong in July-11 in-line with dollar index.
1 2. 5
1 0. 0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
J u l-0 3
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Brent
Reverse Dollar Index (RHS)
160
120
80
40
0
Jul-03
0
30
60
90
120
Jul-11
J u l-0 5
J u l-0 7
J u l-0 9
-1 0
J u l-1 1
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
YoY oil production and demand change
Global crude demand:
June-11 average at 89.2mmbbl/d v/s
3-yr average of 86.5.
OPEC crude supply (USD/BBL)
EIA data suggests OPEC spare capacity at 3.4mmbbl/d, lowest in
recent years.
OPEC supply at 29.7mmbbl/d in June-11 is up 2% MoM; 1QFY12
avg OPEC supply was at 29.2mmbbl/d.
O il P ro d u c t D e m a n d (m m b b l/ d )
Y o Y C h a n g e (%) - R H S
Spare Capacity (RHS)
OP EC SUP P LY
94
89
84
79
74
J u n -0 3
8%
4%
0%
-4 %
-8 %
J u n -1 1
32
30
28
26
24
Jun-03
8
7
5
4
2
Jun-11
J u n -0 5
J u n -0 7
J u n -0 9
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
August 2011
7

US weekly petroleum data
Crude and product inventories rose meaningfully on
WoW basis underlying the bearish sentiment in the
markets.
US crude oil inventory (mmbbl)
Range (2005-09)
Average (2005-09)
Range (2005-09)
201
0
390
355
320
285
250
1
Crude inventory rose 1mmbbl while gasoline and
distillate inventories rose by 2.1mmbbl
Refinery utilization at 89.1% was higher WoW but much
higher vis-à-vis long term average (4.7%/6.0%/4.0%
above the 1-yr/3-yr/5-yr average.
US crude imports continued their decline and were
down by ~1% WoW and 3.8% below 5-yr average.
18
Week
35
52
US distillate inventory (mmbbl)
US gasoline inventory (mmbbl)
US total product supplied (mmbbl/d)
US refinery utilization (%)
US Weekly Data Summary (mmbbl)
Week ended
22-Jul-11 29-Jul-11
Inventory Data
Crude Oil
Gasoline
Distillates
Products Supplied
Total Products
Gasoline
Distillates
Refinery
Utilization (%)
Imports
Crude Imports
Gasoline
August 2011
Weekly variation
WoW WoW (%)
1.0
1.7
0.4
1.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
-0.7
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.3
6.6
2.4
15.6
1.1
-7.2
27.6
Yearly variation
30-Jul-10 YoY (%)
358.0
223.0
169.7
19.3
9.5
3.5
91.2
9.6
1.2
-0.8
-3.5
-10.3
1.6
-2.8
15.4
-2.1
-5.1
-31.5
Variation (%) from
1-Yr Avg 3-Yr Avg 5-Yr Avg
-0.3
-1.6
-3.8
2.3
1.6
6.0
4.7
2.7
-5.9
2.9
0.4
0.0
2.6
1.6
6.5
6.0
-0.3
-9.3
5.6
1.6
7.0
-0.9
0.5
1.1
4.0
-3.8
-15.3
354.0
213.5
151.8
18.4
9.0
3.5
88.3
9.8
0.7
355.0
215.2
152.3
19.6
9.2
4.0
89.3
9.1
0.8
8

GRM
S &
P
RODUCT
Heavies help GRM maintain marginal MoM uptick
S
PREADS
The product spreads showed mixed trends MoM
Reuters Singapore GRM was marginally up in July-11 at USD7.8/bbl v/s USD7.6 in June-
11 and v/s USD8.5/bbl in 1QFY12 and USD4.2/bbl in 2QFY11.
Despite weaker middle distillate margins, overall GRM were up due to increased spreads
in heavies.
Gasoline cracks were strong at USD13.5/bbl and FO crack increased to USD5.8/bbl.
We model Singapore GRM at US$7.5/bbl and RIL's GRM at US$9.9/bbl for FY12.
Reuters Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)
12
9
6
3
0
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Reuters Singapore GRM performance (USD/bbl)
Jul-10 Jun-11 Jul-11
(USD/bbl)
Singapore GRM
4.6
7.6
7.8
MoM
(%)
2.2
YoY 2QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
(%)
70.7
4.2
8.6
7.8
QoQ YoY FY10 FY11 YoY
(%) (%)
-8.9 -45.6
3.5
(%)
1 Yr Avg 3 Yr Avg 5 Yr Avg
5.2 47.8
6.7
4.9
5.7
Oil, Product Prices and Cracks (USD/bbl)
(USD/bbl)
Jul-10
Jun-11
Jul-11
M-o-M
(%)
0.7
2.0
1.9
0.9
-2.1
4.4
1.6
1.4
3.1
6.9
Y-o-Y
(%)
27.7
55.9
51.1
51.2
46.9
53.3
51.6
51.3
53.0
68.7
-59.8
73.5
54.2
52.5
-12.2
nm
2QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 Q-o-Q
(%)
76.0
76.3
74.0
74.9
53.0
80.6
86.2
86.6
72.4
71.0
-21.0
6.6
12.2
12.6
-1.6
-3.0
102.7
117.1
110.6
113.0
76.7
122.8
130.3
131.2
108.6
108.5
-33.9
12.2
19.7
20.6
-2.0
-2.1
97.3
116.2
109.8
110.8
71.6
123.2
128.1
128.8
105.9
115.6
-38.1
13.5
18.4
19.1
-3.8
5.8
-5.2
-0.8
-0.8
-1.9
-6.6
0.3
-1.7
-1.8
-2.4
6.5
-12.4
10.4
-6.7
-7.4
-86.9
nm
Y-o-Y
(%)
28.0
52.3
48.4
48.0
35.1
52.9
48.7
48.8
46.4
62.8
-81.8
102.8
50.8
51.0
-139.9
-151.0
FY11
FY12 Y-o-Y
(%)
100.0
116.7
110.2
111.9
74.2
123.0
129.2
130.0
107.3
112.0
20.2
34.8
31.1
31.7
16.5
33.2
32.3
31.8
27.3
42.1
Oil Prices
WTI
76.2
96.6
Brent
74.5
114.0
Dubai
72.6
107.7
Indian Basket
73.3
109.9
Product Prices
LPG
48.8
73.2
Gasoline
80.4
118.0
Diesel
84.5
126.1
Jet/Kero
85.1
127.0
Naphtha
69.2
102.8
Fuel Oil
68.5
108.1
Product Cracks (v/s Dubai)
LPG
-23.9
-34.5
Gasoline
7.8
10.3
Diesel
11.9
18.4
Jet/Kero
12.5
19.4
Naphtha
-3.4
-4.9
Fuel Oil
-4.1
0.4
97.3
116.2
109.8
110.8
71.6
123.2
128.1
128.8
105.9
115.6
83.2
86.6
84.1
85.0
63.7
92.4
97.7
98.7
84.3
78.9
-20.4
8.3
13.6
14.6
0.2
-5.2
-38.1
-10.5
13.5
30.3
18.4
-0.1
19.1
-1.5
-3.8
22.2
5.8 1,262.6
-36.0 -76.6
12.8 54.4
19.0 39.7
19.8 35.8
-2.9 FALSE
1.9
nm
August 2011
9

Petroleum product-wise spreads
Gasoline spreads (USD/bbl)
July-11 average at USD13.5/bbl v/s USD10.3/bbl in June-11 and
USD7.8/bbl in July-10;
2QFY12 at USD13.5/bbl v/s USD12.2/bbl in 1QFY12 and USD6.6/
bbl in 2QFY11.
Diesel spreads (USD/bbl)
July-11 average at USD18.4/bbl, flat MoM and v/s USD11.9/bbl
in July-10;
2QFY12 at USD18.4/bbl v/s USD19.7/bbl in 1QFY12 and USD12.2/
bbl in 2QFY11.
28
20
12
4
-4
Jul-03
40
30
20
10
0
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
LPG spreads (USD/bbl)
July-11 average at USD-38.1/bbl v/s USD-34.5/bbl in June-11
and USD-23.9/bbl in July-10;
2QFY12 at USD-38.1/bbl v/s USD-33.9/bbl in 1QFY12 and USD-
21/bbl in 2QFY11.
Naphtha spreads (USD/bbl)
July-11 average at USD-3.8/bbl v/s USD-4.9/bbl in June-11 and
USD-3.4/bbl in July-10;
2QFY12 at USD-3.8/bbl v/s USD-2.0/bbl in 1QFY12 and USD-
1.6/bbl in 2QFY11.
8
-8
-24
-40
-56
Jul-03
15
5
-5
-15
-25
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jet/Kero spreads (USD/bbl)
July-11 average at USD19.1/bbl v/s USD19.4/bbl in June-11 and
USD12.5/bbl in July-10;
2QFY12 at USD19.1/bbl v/s USD20.6/bbl in 1QFY12 and USD12.6/
bbl in 2QFY11.
Fuel oil spreads (USD/bbl)
July-11 average at USD5.8/bbl v/s USD0.4/bbl in June-11 and
USD-4.1/bbl in July-10;
2QFY12 at USD5.8/bbl v/s USD-2.1/bbl in 1QFY12 and USD-3.0/
bbl in 2QFY11.
40
30
20
10
0
Jul-03
4
-2
-8
-14
-20
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
August 2011
10

Petchem margin trend
Polymer margins down, polyester margins under pressure led by weak cotton prices
Polymers
International polymer prices except PE declined; PP marginally down while PVC down
7% on MoM basis. Naphtha price was up 3.8% MoM. Domestic prices were also on
decline with PE down 4%, PP down 9% and PVC down 10%. Domestic price premium
over international price declined to single digits at 6-9% from 12-24% year ago.
Margins were down across the product categories by 13-39%.
Polyesters
In July-11, domestic prices of polyesters were flat for PSF and were up 4% for POY.
Intermediates showed a mixed trend, with PTA down 2% and MEG up 10% MoM.
Integrated polyester spreads too displayed a similar trend as polyester prices - down
2% MoM in PSF and up 4.5% in POY. Falling cotton price has put pressure on polyester
prices as well as margins.
Jul-11
44.4
936
44
MoM
YoY
(%)
(%)
(1.0) (5.2)
3.8
53.6
2.8
45.7
1.8
(0.2)
(7.3)
23.6
29.2
25.1
2QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
46.5
638
31
1,203
1,230
950
566
592
312
70.1
72.4
52.0
38.9
41.3
20.8
19.3
20.6
12.1
44.7
954
45
1,450
1,629
1,198
496
674
244
76.6
87.9
60.7
31.8
43.0
15.8
12.5
14.9
7.8
44.4
936
44
1,407
1,525
1,108
471
589
172
72.3
77.2
55.0
28.6
33.5
11.3
10.0
8.4
6.3
QoQ
YoY
(%) (%)
(0.7) (4.5)
(1.9)
46.7
(2.6)
40.2
(3.0)
(6.4)
(7.5)
16.9
24.0
16.6
FY11
45.6
743
36
1,354
1,375
1,006
612
632
264
73.0
75.8
53.0
37.5
40.3
17.5
13.1
15.7
10.3
FY12
44.6
950
45
1,439
1,603
1,176
490
653
226
75.5
85.2
59.3
31.0
40.7
14.7
11.9
13.3
7.4
YoY
(%)
(2.0)
27.9
25.5
6.3
16.6
16.8
(19.9)
3.3
(14.3)
3.5
12.4
11.7
(17.3)
0.9
(16.1)
(9.5)
(15.4)
(27.8)
Polymer Prices and Spreads
Jul-10 Jun-11
Exch. Rate (Rs/US$)
Naphtha (US$/MT)
Naphtha (Rs/kg)
46.8
609
30
44.8
902
43
International Prices (US$/MT)
PE
1,138
1,382
1,407
PP
1,180
1,528
1,525
PVC
886
1,195
1,108
Sim ple Spreads over Naphtha (US$/MT)
PE
528
480
471
PP
571
626
589
PVC
277
293
172
Dom estic Prices (Rs/kg)
PE
68.8
75.3
PP
72.1
85.2
PVC
49.0
61.0
Sim ple Spreads over Naphtha (Rs/kg)
PE
38.8
32.8
PP
42.1
42.7
PVC
19.0
18.5
Prem /(Disc) to International Prices (%)
PE
22.8
15.5
PP
24.1
18.3
PVC
12.3
8.3
72.3
77.2
55.0
28.6
33.5
11.3
10.0
8.4
6.3
(2.0) (10.9)
(5.8)
3.2
(41.3) (37.8)
(4.0)
(9.4)
(9.8)
5.1
7.1
12.2
(5.1) (16.7)
(12.6) (0.4)
(29.4) (44.8)
(5.7)
(12.1)
(9.3)
3.1
6.6
5.8
(12.8) (26.3)
(21.5) (20.4)
(38.8) (40.5)
(35.4) (55.9)
(54.0) (65.0)
(23.7) (48.7)
(10.0) (26.6)
(22.1) (18.8)
(28.5) (45.7)
(19.4) (47.9)
(43.5) (59.1)
(18.3) (47.5)
Key polymer price trends (INR/kg)
100
80
60
40
20
Jul-03
PE
PP
PVC
Premium/discount to international prices (INR/kg)
60
40
20
0
-20
Jul-03
PE
PP
PVC
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
August 2011
11

Polymer product-wise margins
PE spread over naphtha (INR/kg)
2006-1
0
Avg 2006-1
0
FY1
1
FY1
2
PE spread overn naphtha (USD/mt)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Jul-03
Naphtha
Ethylene
Polyethylene
52
44
36
28
20
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
PP spread over naphtha (INR/kg)
2006-1
0
Avg 2006-1
0
FY1
1
FY1
2
PP spread over naphtha (USD/mt)
2,400
1,800
1,200
600
0
Jul-03
Naphtha
Propylene
Polypropylene
52
44
36
28
20
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
PVC spread over naphtha (INR/kg)
2006-10
Avg 2006-10
FY11
FY12
PVC spread over naphtha (USD/mt)
1,800
1,350
900
450
0
Jul-03
Naphtha Price
Ethylene
PVC
30
24
18
12
6
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
August 2011
12

Polyester price and margin trends
Polyester Prices and Spreads (INR/kg)
Jul-10
Jun-11
Jul-11
MoM
(%)
(2.2)
10.3
4.0
0.0
4.5
(1.6)
YoY
(%)
34.3
64.3
32.6
40.3
25.6
37.2
2QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
QoQ
(%)
(12.8)
6.7
(3.7)
(8.3)
(4.6)
(11.5)
YoY
(%)
32.2
61.1
31.4
38.9
26.4
38.0
FY11
FY12
YoY
(%)
24.9
25.4
17.7
25.8
13.5
26.0
Polyester Interm ediates Prices
PTA
43.5
59.7
MEG
37.0
55.1
Polyester Prices
POY
69.1
88.1
PSF
68.3
95.8
Integrated Polyester Spreads
POY
45.5
54.6
PSF
44.6
62.2
58.4
60.8
91.6
95.8
57.1
61.2
44.2
37.7
69.7
68.9
45.2
44.3
67.0
57.0
95.1
104.4
59.8
69.1
58.4
60.8
91.6
95.8
57.1
61.2
51.9
46.2
80.1
81.3
52.1
53.3
64.9
57.9
94.3
102.3
59.2
67.2
PTA and MEG price trend (INR/kg)
POY and PSF price trend (INR/kg)
PTA spread over naphtha (INR/kg)
MEG spread over naphtha (INR/kg)
POY spread over naphtha (INR/kg)
PSF spread over naphtha (INR/kg)
August 2011
13

K
EY
I
NDIA
S
TATISTICS
Refinery throughput trend
FY13 under recoveries likely to come down sharply
Monthly Comparison
KBPD
Total
PSU's
HPCL
BPCL
IOC
MRPL
CPCL
Private
RIL
ESSAR
714
300
652
292
644
298
(1.1)
2.2
(9.8)
(0.4)
726
298
222
463
1,076
267
235
315
411
1,147
283
204
345
429
1,156
279
184
9.6
4.2
0.8
(1.4)
(9.6)
55.8
(7.4)
7.5
4.3
(21.6)
269
451
1,076
244
190
Jun-10 May-11 Jun-11
3,317
3,361
3,400
MoM
(%)
1.1
YoY
(%)
2.5
Quarterly Comparison
1QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12
3,271
3,443
352
418
1,165
273
231
649
299
3,383
321
423
1,159
269
207
652
293
QoQ
(%)
(1.7)
(8.7)
1.1
(0.5)
(1.7)
(10.2)
0.4
(2.0)
YoY
(%)
3.4
19.6
(6.3)
7.7
10.2
9.0
(10.2)
(1.5)
Annual Comparison
FY11
3,290
300
431
1,070
256
218
671
298
FY12
3,383
321
423
1,159
269
207
652
293
YoY
(%)
2.8
7.1
(1.9)
8.3
5.1
(4.7)
(2.8)
(1.6)
*RIL SEZ refinery volumes not included
Source: MoPNG, MOSL
Refinery production (kbpd)
Private
Total
3,731
2,829
3,016 3,141
3,930 4,057
1,304 1,371
1,714
2,212
2,062 2,131
2,540
2,374 2,486
FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E
*RIL SEZ refinery volumes included from FY10
We model upstream sharing at 38.7% in FY11 and 33% in FY12
FY08
Fx Rate (INR/USD)
Brent (USD/bbl)
Gross Under recoveries ( INR b)
Auto Fuels
Domestic Fuels
Total
Sharing (INR b)
Oil Bonds/Cash
Upstream
OMC's sharing
Total
Sharing (%)
Oil Bonds
Upstream
OMC's sharing
Total
40.3
82.3
426
347
773
353
257
163
773
46
33
21
100
FY09
46.0
84.8
575
458
1,033
713
329
(9)
1,033
69
32
(1)
100
FY10
47.5
69.6
144
316
461
260
145
56
461
56
31
12
100
FY11
45.6
86.3
375
405
780
410
303
67
780
53
39
9
100
FY12E
44.5
105.0
524
529
1,053
578
407
67
1,053
55
39
6
100
FY13E
44.0
95.0
155
452
607
342
202
63
607
56
33
10
100
August 2011
14

Domestic fuel consumption statistics
Monthly Com parison
Jun-10 May-11 Jun-11 MoM
(%)
2,916
352
1,299
184
104
250
213
3,057
371
1,421
185
115
276
147
2,958
354
1,337
176
115
250
172
(3.2)
(4.5)
(5.9)
(5.0)
(0.3)
(9.3)
17.5
Quarterly Com parison
1QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 QoQ
(%)
2,928
337
1,309
189
104
265
201
2,978
336
1,284
194
117
244
197
3,033
355
1,375
185
116
273
174
1.8
5.8
7.1
(4.6)
(0.4)
11.9
(11.8)
Annual Com parison
FY11
FY12
YoY
(%)
2,848
331
1,233
191
109
257
200
3,033
355
1,375
185
116
273
174
6.5
7.3
11.5
(3.1)
6.9
6.3
(13.1)
kbpd
Total
Key Products
Petrol
Diesel
Kerosene
ATF
Naphtha
Fuel Oil
YoY
(%)
1.4
0.5
2.9
(4.8)
10.4
(0.2)
(19.1)
YoY
(%)
3.6
5.2
5.0
(2.4)
11.4
3.1
(13.8)
Overall petroleum consumption (in kbpd terms) in June-
11 was down on MoM basis but uo 1.4% on YoY basis.
Total consumption (KBPD)
To tal
Yo Y (%)
3,250
3,000
2,750
2,500
2,250
20%
13%
5%
-3%
-10%
Petrol consumption declined 4.5% MoM while diesel
consumption was down 5.9% MoM: On a YoY basis,
Petrol consumption was marginally up by 0.5% and up
2.9% YoY.
1QFY12 auto fuel consumption trend was strong on
QoQ and YoY basis. However kero consumption was
down, largely due to lowering of quota for PDS.
Naphtha consumption in India was sharply down by
9.3% on MoM basis.
Petrol consumption (KBPD)
400
360
320
280
240
200
P etro l
Yo Y (%)
Diesel consumption (KBPD)
38%
26%
14%
2%
-10%
Diesel
Yo Y (%)
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
25%
18%
10%
3%
-5%
August 2011
15

N
EWS
U
PDATES
Industry news
July 2011
Petronet LNG planning to set up a 5mmtpa LNG terminal along the East Coast
Petronet LNG is planning to set up a 5 million tonnes per annum liquefied natural gas
terminal along the East Coast, a top company official said. The Petronet board has approved
a proposal to carry out the detailed feasibility report for the terminal, which, at current
rates is expected to cost at least $1 billion, Mr A.K. Balyan, Managing Director and CEO,
said. The terminal is expected to be ready in five years. The pre-feasibility and internal
assessment had thrown up five to six locations, including Gangavaram and Kakinada in
Andhra Pradesh, but a final call will be taken based on the detailed report, he said. Mr
Balyan also said work on the Kochi terminal was on track and it was likely to be commissioned
by the fourth quarter of 2012.
"Looking at the huge demand for natural gas, including LNG, the board has decided to raise
the Dahej terminal capacity by an additional five million tonnes per annum beyond its present
nameplate capacity of 10 mtpa," Mr Balyan added. This is expected to be done by 2015. The
expansion will be partly funded by off takers such as the GAIL and Gujarat State Petroleum
Corp, and they have sought dedicated capacity at the terminal for importing their own
volumes of LNG.
Mr Balyan also said there was ample supply of gas, and that Petronet was talking to Qatar
and Australia for further long-term supplies. Currently, Petronet imports 7.5 mtpa of LNG
from Qatar on a long-term contract. Besides the long-term imports, Petronet also imported
nine cargoes from the spot market and six service cargoes (leasing out its terminal for
import by companies). During this fiscal, the company plans to import 10 cargoes from the
spot market, he said. He said that Petronet was seeking 2-4 million tonnes of additional LNG
on a long-term contract from Qatar.
Government approves RIL-BP deal
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the proposal to grant consent to the
transfer of 30% of Participating Interest of Reliance India Limited to BP Exploration (Alpha)
Limited in 21 blocks, by excluding blocks AS-ONN-2000/1 and NEC-DWN-2002/1, subject to
submission of all guarantees and documents by the assignee viz., BP Exploration (Alpha)
Limited in terms of provisions of the respective PSCs.
Further, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (MoP&NG) may subsequently take a suitable
administrative decision in respect of the issues pending in respect of two blocks AS-ONN-
2000/1 and NEC-DWN-2002/1. Based on such decisions, MoP&NG may in future grant or
refuse consent to transfer of 30% Participating Interest in these two blocks.
It is expected that proposed transfer of 30% PI of RIL to BP Exploration (Alpha) Limited in
respect of 21 blocks would bring vast technical expertise into the blocks.
Background to the case:
Government of India has entered into PSCs with RIL in 26 Oil and Gas blocks. RIL vide their
letters dated 24.02.2011 and 25.02.2011 informed that they have entered into an agreement
whereby RIL has agreed to farm out 30% participating Interest in the (4+19) 23 designated
blocks to BP Exploration (Alpha) Limited and accordingly have sought the approval of the
August 2011
16

Government of India as required under Article 28.1 of the PSCs. Out of these 23 blocks, the
Participating Interest of RIL is 100% in 17 blocks, whereas in the remaining 6 blocks, RIL
holds interest along with other companies. The decision will be communicated to RIL and BP
Exploration (Alpha) Limited immediately on receipt of CCEA approval.
Conditional clearance for the Cairn Energy and Vedanta deal
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs considered the recommendation of the GOM
constituted to examine the transaction and approved the proposal to grant consent to the
sale of majority shareholding by Cairn Energy Plc in Cairn India Limited (CIL) to Vedanta
Resources Plc in respect of (i) Seven (7) PSCs under NELP; (ii) Three (3) PSCs under pre-
NELP subject to the conditions that (i) CIL and its subsidiaries to obtain No Objection
Certificates from its partner, (ii) Vedanta Resources Plc providing the performance and financial
guarantees as required, and (iii) Vedanta Resources Plc to obtain such other necessary
approvals as required from regulatory bodies such as SEBI, etc., and in respect of Pre-NELP
block in Rajasthan, (iv) cost recovery of royalty by ONGC to be agreed to by CIL and its
subsidiaries and Vedanta Resources Plc as per the provisions of the PSC, and (v) CIL and its
subsidiary to withdraw the Cess arbitration case. Further, the grant of consent for all the
NELP and pre-NELP blocks is also subject to the condition that necessary security clearance
is accorded by Ministry of Home Affairs to Vedanta Resources Plc to acquire the shareholding.
The proposed sale of shareholding will result in Vedanta Resources Plc taking the controlling
stake in Cairn India Limited.
Background to the case:
Cairn Energy PLC through its subsidiaries has entered into Production Sharing Contracts
(PSCs) with the Government of India for carrying out exploration and production of oil &
natural gas under pre-NELP and NELP rounds for several blocks. The pre-NELP blocks are
RJ-ON-90/1, CB-OS/2 and Ravva (PKGM-1); the NELP blocks are PR-OSN-2004/1, MB-DWN-
2009/1, KG-OSN-2009/3, KG-ONN-2003/1, KG-DWN-98/2, GS-OSN-2003/1 and KK-DWN-2004/
1. Cairn Energy PLC vide letter dated 16.8.2010 inter alia informed the Ministry of Petroleum
& Natural Gas about the proposed disposal of their 51% shareholding in Cairn India Limited
(CIL) to Vedanta Resources PLC, which would involve Cairn UK Holding Limited, a wholly
owned subsidiary of Cairn, selling to THL Aluminium Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary
undertaking of Vedanta, a maximum of 51% of the fully-diluted share capital of Cairn India
at completion and Vedanta to make an open offer to Cairn India shareholders, at not less
than INR 355, for upto 20% of the issued shares in Cairn India, in accordance with the
requirements of the SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations,
1997 (the "Open Offer") (Cairn will not participate in the Open Offer).
With the proposed sale of shares, the CIL will undergo a substantial change in the ownership
as the shares now will be held by Vedanta Resources PLC. This will have an impact on the
rights and obligations of the Parties under the Contract and thereby on Participating Interest
(PI) and thus, the contractor is required to obtain the consent of the Government as provided
under article 28.1 of the PSCs under the pre-NELP blocks and under article 28.2 of the NELP
PSCs.
MoPNG:
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas;
OMC:
Oil Marketing Company;
GRM:
Gross Refining Margin;
GoI:
Government of India;
IOC:
Indian Oil Corporation;
HPCL:
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation;
BPCL:
Bharat Petroleum Corporation;
ONGC:
Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation;
GAIL:
GAIL (India);
EGoM:
Empowered Group of Ministers;
PSU:
Public Sector Unit;
PDS:
Public Distribution System
August 2011
17

S
TOCK
P
RICE
P
ERFORMANCE
Broader markets outperform O&G Index
Gas stocks outperform in July-11
O&G Index
Sensex
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Absolute stock performance (%)
1 MONTH ABSOLUTE
Guj Gas
IGL
Cairn
IOC
BPCL
HPCL
GAIL
OIL
ONGC
RIL
(4)
(6)
0
8
16
24
(4)
4
(7)
2
1
6
8
16
6 MONTH ABSOLUTE
Guj Gas
IGL
Cairn
IOC
BPCL
HPCL
GAIL
OIL
ONGC
RIL
(5)
(9)
0
20
40
1
(6)
(6)
4
5
(1)
20
32
1 YEAR ABSOLUTE
Guj Gas
IGL
Cairn
IOC
BPCL
HPCL
GA IL
OIL
ONGC
RIL
(14)
(18)
0
20
40
60
(11)
2
(8)
(11)
3
(5)
41
37
(16) (8)
(20)
(40) (20)
Relative stock performance (%)
1 M O NT H R ELA T IV E
Guj Ga s
IG L
C a irn
IO C
BP C L
HPC L
G A IL
O IL
O NGC
R IL
(1 )
(4 )
0
10
20
(2 )
7
(5 )
5
4
9
11
19
6 MONTH RELATIVE
Guj Gas
IGL
Cairn
IOC
BPCL
HPCL
GAIL
OIL
ONGC
RIL
(20)
(8)
0
20
40
(4)
(5)
(5)
5
6
3
(0)
21
33
1 YEAR RELATIVE
Guj Gas
IGL
Cairn
IOC
BPCL
HPCL
GAIL
OIL
ONGC
RIL
(100)
(50)
(15)
(19)
0
50
(9)
(12)
2
(12)
1
(6)
40
36
(1 0 )
August 2011
18

G
LOBAL
P
EER
V
ALUATIONS
Integrated Oil Companies
RIL at premium and ONGC at discount compared to
global peers
M. Cap
(US$b)
55.4
PE (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
12.3
11.6
9.9
9.7
7.0
6.7
13.3
8.4
7.7
9.9
7.3
6.3
8.7
7.6
7.0
10.0
7.8
7.1
PE (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
11.0
10.6
8.2
10.1
6.4
5.7
22.5
14.6
10.4
12.8
10.9
9.2
13.3
11.0
9.6
17.5
12.7
9.9
PE (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
13.6
11.4
10.9
6.7
6.5
5.6
8.2
9.2
9.0
10.0
9.3
7.8
11.3
13.7
11.3
21.8
16.3
7.3
6.8
10.0
6.7
13.0
5.0
12.3
20.2
12.3
11.3
17.0
11.8
9.8
PE (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
14.9
12.8
11.6
10.6
11.7
11.6
17.1
15.2
13.7
17.1
13.3
12.5
21.1
17.2
15.0
19.6
14.8
13.6
20.9
16.8
14.8
PE (x)
CY11/FY CY12/FY
12
13
10.5
8.9
9.6
8.9
15.7
12.6
10.8
9.7
11.1
9.7
P/BV (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.4
1.2
1.1
P/BV (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.8
1.6
1.4
2.2
1.8
1.6
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.9
1.7
1.5
P/BV (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
1.4
1.3
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.6
1.1
1.1
2.9
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.7
1.6
P/BV (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
2.4
2.1
1.9
3.0
2.7
2.3
8.7
7.4
6.1
3.7
3.2
2.7
2.4
2.1
2.0
3.9
3.3
2.9
2.7
2.3
2.2
P/BV (x)
CY11/FY CY12/FY
12
13
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.0
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
EV/EBIDTA (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
8.3
7.4
6.4
4.5
3.5
3.3
4.9
3.9
3.5
4.8
3.6
3.3
6.0
5.1
4.6
5.6
4.6
4.2
EV/EBIDTA (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
4.3
3.9
3.6
7.8
4.8
4.0
5.9
4.9
4.1
5.4
4.3
3.8
6.5
5.4
4.7
6.0
4.9
4.2
EV/EBIDTA (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
9.8
8.6
7.1
6.9
6.3
5.3
8.3
8.0
7.5
7.0
5.8
4.6
12.8
11.5
8.5
7.3
3.7
3.5
5.6
4.7
4.1
7.2
3.9
6.5
12.7
8.8
8.2
9.8
6.7
6.5
EV/EBIDTA (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
8.1
8.3
8.6
7.6
7.0
6.0
4.5
3.7
3.1
10.1
9.0
6.6
10.2
8.8
8.1
10.4
8.5
7.9
10.2
8.7
8.0
EV/EBIDTA (x)
CY10/FY CY11/FY CY12/FY
11
12
13
7.8
6.7
6.2
6.4
5.8
5.4
10.5
6.2
5.8
15.8
11.3
10.3
10.8
8.1
7.5
Reliance Industries
Big 5 average
North America average
Europe average
Asia & Others average
Global Average
Upstream Companies
M. Cap
(US$b)
54.0
11.6
ONGC
Cairn India
North America average
Europe average
Asia & Others average
Global Average
Refining and Marketing Companies
M. Cap
(US$b)
5.5
0.7
3.0
18.1
2.6
BPCL
CPCL
HPCL
IOC
MRPL
North America average
Europe average
Japan average
Asia & Others average
Global Average
Gas Utilities
M. Cap
(US$b)
11.5
1.3
1.3
2.8
GAIL
GSPL
IGL
Petronet LNG
North America average
Asia & Others average
Global Average
Petrochemical Companies
M. Cap
(US$b)
North America average
Europe average
Japan average
Asia & Others average
Global Average
CY10/FY
11
14.9
11.6
47.2
14.5
18.2
CY10/FY
11
2.0
2.3
1.3
2.4
2.1
*All averages are weighted averages
August 2011
19

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