9 January 2012
Annual Report Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Siemens
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
15,815
4,743
CMP: INR678
Expansion plans on track
TP: INR743
Neutral
Reiterates growing importance of India for Siemens AG
Siemens AG has identified Siemens India as a key partner in its global
footprint. Chairman, Mr Deepak Parekh says, "…the Indian market will
play a greater role in Siemens worldwide."
Healthy mix of long-cycle and short-cycle business, particularly in the
Industry segment, has helped Siemens to sustain growth.
Expansion plans are on track. The company has maintained healthy return
ratios despite ongoing capacity expansion.
The stock trades at 23x FY12E and 18x FY13E EPS. Maintain Neutral.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Y/E Sept.
SIEM IN
337.0
951/627
1/-10/5
228.5
4.4
2011 2012E 2013E
133.5
15.7
10.0
29.7
18.5
131.3
22.8
5.2
13.2
1.6
24.3
25.5
163.5
19.6
12.5
37.0
24.3
154.2
18.3
4.4
10.4
1.2
25.9
26.9
Sales (INR b) 120.7
EBITDA (INR b) 12.9
PAT (INR b)
8.5
EPS (INR)
25.1
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
P/E (x)
2.2
113.2
27.0
Chairman reiterates growing presence in parent's global footprint:
Siemens
has adopted an investment-led growth strategy in India. Its parent, Siemens AG has
identified it as a key partner in its global footprint. In the annual report, Siemens India's
Chairman, Mr Deepak Parekh says, "It is significant to note that the company's parent
Siemens AG increased its stake from 55% to 75% earlier in the year through an
investment of approximately 1 billion Euros. This is a clear message that Siemens Ltd
and the Indian market will play a greater role in Siemens worldwide."
New business verticals and base products to drive growth:
The company is
building on its SMART (simple-to-use, maintenance-friendly, affordable, reliable and
timely-to-market) base-level product initiative. Increased local footprint, higher
localization of products and increased outsourcing of base-level products from India
remains its key strategy. It is setting up six new hubs in India, with a planned expenditure
of INR12b-14b over the next 3-4 years. Four of these are for value-price products.
Diversified business mix helps sustain growth:
Healthy mix of long-cycle and
short-cycle business, particularly in the Industry segment, has helped Siemens to
sustain growth. Its Product Business group, comprising of Building Technologies (BT),
Drive Technologies (DT) and Industry Automation (IA) posted healthy growth, mitigating
the sluggish growth in Industry Solutions. The Industry Solutions business saw sluggish
demand, with customers postponing turnkey projects and new orders.
Working capital deteriorates due to fall in creditors:
Cash flow from operations
before capex declined sharply due to increase in working capital. Sundry creditors
declined from 114 days in FY10 to 90 days in FY11, which we believe has resulted
from deterioration in vendor credit due to tightening liquidity conditions. The company
has maintained return ratios at healthy levels despite ongoing capacity expansion.
Valuation and view:
With project award activity still not showing signs of meaningful
pick-up, we see Siemens posting moderate order intake growth in FY12. Siemens is
also a key partner in Siemens AG's global network, creating significant export
opportunity. We believe that the company will continue to be Siemens AG's growth
vehicle in the Middle East and North African markets due to cost advantage. The stock
trades at 23x FY12E and 18x FY13E EPS. Our target price is INR743 (on 25x FY12E
EPS). Maintain
Neutral.
P/BV (x)
6.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.8
EV/ Sales (x)
1.8
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
* Standalone
23.2
24.5
Shareholding pattern % (Sep-11)
Others,
13.1
Foreign,
3.6
Domestic
Inst, 8.3
Promoters
75.0
Stock performance (1 year)
Siemens
Sensex - Rebased
980
880
780
680
580
Dhirendra Tiwari
(Dhirendra.Tiwari@motilaloswal.com ) +91 22 3029 5127
Deepak Kumar Narnolia
(Deepaknaranolia@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3029 5126