13 January 2012
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Alstom Projects India
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
16,155
4,866
CMP: INR371
Alstom-SEC boiler JV not to impact BHEL
Not Rated
ABBAP's growth to hinge around hydropower and transportation sectors in India
Bloomberg
ABBAP IN
Equity Shares (m)
67.0
52-Week Range (INR) 692/280
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
6/-22/-28
M.Cap. (INR b)
24.9
M.Cap. (USD b)
0.5
Y/E March
2009
Sales (INR b) 22.9
EBITDA (INR b) 2.0
Net Profit (INR b)1.3
EPS (INR)
20.1
EPS Growth (%)89.8
BV/Share (INR)60.9
P/E (x)
18.4
P/BV (x)
6.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8
EV/ Sales (x)
0.9
RoE (%)
35.5
RoCE (%)
33.0
2010
20.4
2.5
1.7
25.0
24.0
74.1
14.9
5.0
7.6
0.9
37.0
34.2
2011
18.0
2.5
1.7
25.2
1.0
87.7
14.7
4.2
7.1
1.0
31.2
28.7
Alstom SA acquired the transmission business of Areva T&D recently and has entered
into an agreement to form a boiler JV with Shanghai Electric Company. BHEL will not be
impacted by the JV.
ABBAP will transfer the boiler business to the JV. Its growth will hinge around the
hydropower, gas-based power and transportation sectors in India.
While the opportunity is large, near-term demand is subdued. Recovery in the
hydropower and gas-based power segments will be critical for the stock's
outperformance.
Global slowdown necessitating consolidation; Alstom SA to form JV with SEC for
boiler business:
The Alstom Group is undergoing significant transformation
globally. Alstom SA acquired the transmission business of Areva T&D recently
and has entered into an agreement with Shanghai Electric Company (SEC) to
create a 50:50 JV, which will own all boiler manufacturing assets of the two
companies worldwide. The company sees China and India as two key markets
over the next few years. The company is very optimistic on its JVs in India - with
Bharat Forge for supercritical turbine generator and with NTPC for boiler servicing.
Collaboration with BHEL to remain unaffected by JV with SEC:
BHEL has a long-
term technology agreement with Alstom. The formation of Alstom-SEC JV has
raised concerns on the future of this collaboration, given that SEC is an active
player in India. The Alstom management reiterated that these concerns are
unfounded. BHEL has exclusive rights on Alstom supercritical technology in India
and will continue to enjoy that status.
Indian BTG manufacturing industry lost out to Chinese manufacturers due to
unpreparedness:
The Indian power equipment manufacturers were not prepared
when demand surge occurred in 2005-08, leaving the field open to the Chinese
manufacturers. The scenario has changed over time and India has built sufficient
capacity to meet domestic demand. In India, however, projects are awarded on
the basis of initial cost and not on life-cycle cost, which is detrimental to the
growth of sector and puts companies like BHEL and Alstom at a disadvantage.
ABBAP's 1HFY12 margins fail to impress due to disappointing performance of
boiler business:
During 1HFY12, ABBAP's revenue increased 31% YoY. However
PAT declined 49% YoY, mainly due to disappointing performance of the boiler
business. The order book currently stands at INR58b, implying BTB of 3.2x FY11
revenue. We believe that while the opportunity in hydro and transportation
sectors is large, near-term demand is subdued and it will not be able to
compensate for loss of boiler business in the next few years. Recovery in the
hydropower and gas segments will be critical for stock outperformance. ABBAP
trades at 25% premium to BHEL on FY11 P/E and lacks near-term catalysts.
Shareholding pattern % (Sep-11)
Others,
14.9
Foreign,
3.7
Dom.
Inst,
12.9
Promoters
68.5
Stock performance (1 year)
Als tom Projects
Sens ex - Reba s ed
800
600
400
200
0
Dhirendra Tiwari
(Dhirendra.Tiwari@motilaloswal.com ) +91 22 3029 5127
Deepak Kumar Narnolia
(Deepaknaranolia@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3029 5126