March 2012
the oil & gas monthly
SUMMARY - February 2012
Special Section:
3QFY12 result review, BPCL update
Supply issues outweigh growth concerns; Light-Heavy spreads lower:
Brent averaged at USD119/bbl in Feb-12 and USD113.6/bbl in FY12 till
date. The continuous price surge in Brent crude was led by
geopolitical tensions in Iran which outweighed concerns of global
economic slowdown. Arab L-H differential declined to 22 month low
of USD2.5/bbl as Libyan sweet crude production ramps up.
GRMs declined 13% MoM to USD7.9/bbl in Feb-12:
Benchmark
Reuters Singapore GRM averaged USD7.9/bbl in Feb-12 led by lower
middle distillates and fuel oil spreads. LPG spread improved to USD-
26.1/bbl in Feb-12 from recent low of USD-41/bbl in Nov-11 as ~10%
of Asian crackers have shifted their feedstock from Naphtha to LPG.
Petchem margins down:
Domestic PE and PP margins were both
down MoM by 5.2%, while PVC margin was down to decade low at
INR3.7/kg. China's 2012E GDP growth rate cut to 7.5% from earlier 8%
will impact Petchem demand which is already under pressure due to
slowdown in Europe. Recent, cotton export ban by India (accounts
for 12% of export and 20% of consumption) reduced domestic prices,
however international prices increased, which will benefit overall
polyester chain.
Valuation and view:
High crude oil prices does not augur well for
OMCs, but E&P potential of BPCL makes it attractive. Government of
India has fixed upstream share of under-recoveries at 37.9% for
9MFY12 but we model 40% for full year and nil for OMC's. Maintain
Neutral
on RIL due to subdued outlook on its core business. Resilient
crude oil price regime augurs well for Cairn India but key things to
watch out in near future would be reserve upgrade, dividend policy.
G
ASO
L
INE
T
ANK
Special Report .................................... 2
Oil Market Trends .............................. 5
GRM and Product Spreads ................ 7
Petchem Margin Trend ...................... 9
Key India Statistics .......................... 12
News Updates .................................. 14
Stock Price Performances ................ 16
Global Peer Valuations .................. 17
Data sources:
Bloomberg, Reuters, Ministry of
Petroleum, PPAC, various companies
K
EY
T
RENDS
FO slumps, while LPG surges (USD/bbl)
Fuel Oi l
15
0
-15
-30
-45
Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12
LPG
Reuters Singapore GRM (USD/BBL)
12
8
4
0
Valuations: Coverage Universe
M Cap
P/E (x)
USD b FY11 FY12E FY13E
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY11 FY12E FY13E
7.3
3.3
4.2
6.7
8.2
7.9
6.2
5.9
6.3
5.8
7.6
7.6
P/B (x)
FY11 FY12E FY13E
1.5
2.1
1.7
1.2
1.6
0.8
1.8
0.7
2.4
2.2
4.5
5.1
1.3
1.8
1.5
1.1
1.4
0.8
1.7
0.7
1.9
1.8
3.5
4.2
1.2
1.6
1.3
1.0
1.3
0.7
1.5
0.6
1.7
1.5
2.9
3.6
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Integrated/Upstream
Reliance Inds*
49.5 11.1 11.0 10.9
7.3
7.1
ONGC
47.4 11.4
9.2 9.3
4.3
3.6
Cairn India
13.5 10.7
7.4 6.6
7.8
5.9
OMCs
IOC
13.2
8.5
9.3 8.4
10.3
7.1
BPCL
4.7 14.6 15.5 13.6
11.6
9.0
HPCL
2.0
6.6 10.4 8.5
11.6 11.4
Independent Refiners
MRPL
2.3 10.0 19.9 10.3
6.1 13.0
CPCL
0.5
5.0
16 5.4
6.1 28.0
Gas Companies
GAIL**
8.8 12.7 10.3 9.4
7.4
6.4
GSPL
0.9
8.6
8.5 9.2
6.1
5.4
Petronet LNG
2.4 17.4 11.0 11.4
11.7
8.4
IGL
1.0 19.3 17.1 14.3
11.2
8.9
*No. of shares adj. for treasury shares; **P/E adj. for investments
1-M Relative Stock Performance
GSPL
PLNG
IGL
Ca i rn
IOC
BPCL
HPCL
GAIL
OIL
ONGC
RIL
(13)
(0)
0
4
2
16
6
(3)
5
5
(4)
(10)
0
10
20
(20)
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Deepak Dult
(Deepak.Dult@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445