3 April 2012
C
orner
O
ffice
Interaction with the CEO
the
Realigning business strategy: Focus on qualitative growth
Oriental Bank of Commerce
NPA management, recoveries to be key focus area
De-bulking of balance sheet, with change in branch banking strategy to improve
operating parameters
To improve CASA ratio by capitalizing on strong foothold in CASA-rich northern states
- targets CASA ratio of 25% by CY12 as against 22% as at the end of CY11
Credit monitoring and NPA recovery to be key focus area
To increase granularity in loan portfolio by increasing focus on SME and retail portfolio
We met the new CMD of Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC), Mr SL Bansal to gain
Mr SL Bansal
insights into the bank’s strategies and its roadmap under the new leadership.
Chairman and Managing Director
Mr SL Bansal
has assumed
Our key takeaways:
De-bulking the balance sheet - A key requirement for improving operating
parameters:
In the last few years, strong loan growth and focus on bulk business
led to a decline in OBC’s CASA ratio and impacted margins. As a strategy, Mr
Bansal intends to de-bulk the balance sheet. Accordingly, only select branches
would focus on the wholesale business while the others would focus on the
retail, SME and mid-corporate segments. In the process of realignment of its
balance sheet, the bank is willing to grow moderately.
charge as CMD of OBC in March
2012 and has tenure till
September 2014. Mr Bansal
started his career as a
Probationary Officer in Union
Bank of India, where he gained
vast experience in different
roles. In 2010, he became
Executive Director of United
Bank of India.
Improving CASA ratio - To leverage strong foothold in CASA-rich northern region:
OBC’s CASA ratio has been lower among state-owned banks at ~22% as against
the industry average of ~30%. As at December 2011, the bank had ~1,750 branches, with very strong presence in
the CASA-rich northern region. The management is planning various initiatives to improve CASA ratio and to
leverage upon its strong foothold in the CASA-rich belt. Shedding of bulk deposits would also help to improve
CASA ratio. The management targets CASA ratio of 25% by the end of CY12 as compared to 22% in December 2011.
NPA management and recoveries - A key focus area:
Recoveries from NPAs and strengthening of credit appraisal
at all levels to improve asset quality would be OBC’s key focus areas. Moreover, with the help of technology,
credit monitoring processes should advance considerably. The management is also considering providing
preemptive restructuring of assets where the borrower has been temporarily impacted by economic slowdown.
Valuation and view - Maintain Buy:
We expect near-term margins to be under pressure due to (1) tight liquidity
conditions, (2) lower CASA ratio, and (3) higher proportion of deposits at preferential rates. However, we believe
the new management’s focus to improve the balance sheet, even at the cost of growth, is a step in the right
direction. Though core operating parameters are under pressure, a strong management at the helm of affairs
and low valuations are comforting. We expect OBC to report RoA of 0.7% and RoE of ~12% over FY12/13. The stock
trades at 0.7x FY12E and 0.6x FY13E BV. Maintain
Buy.
Stock Info
CMP (INR) - 2 Apr. 2012
256
Bloomberg
OBC IN
Equity Shares (m)
291.8
52-Week Range (INR) 406/190
1,6,12 Rel.Perf.(%) -11/-20/-24
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
75/2
Financial and valuation summary
Year
Net Income
End
(INR m)
3/11A
51,376
3/12E
55,131
3/13E
63,292
3/14E
72,935
PAT
(INR m)
15,029
12,006
13,992
15,474
EPS
(INR)
51.5
41.1
48.0
53.0
EPS
Gr. (%)
13.7
-20.1
16.6
10.6
P/E
(X)
5.0
6.2
5.3
4.8
BV
(INR)
350
381
418
459
P/BV
(X)
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
P/ABV
(X)
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
RoAA
(%)
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
RoAE
(%)
17.1
11.3
12.0
12.1
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5415
Sohail Halai
(Sohail.Halai@MotilalOswal.com) /
Umang Shah
(Umang.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)