10 May 2012
4QFY12 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
16,480
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
4,975
GNP IN
269.8
351/263
14/12/31
91.7
1.7
CMP: INR340
TP: INR420
Buy
Note - Company has commenced IFRS accounting wef FY11. Estimates exclude one-off upsides
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP) posted 30% YoY growth in core topline to INR10.3b (v/s our estimate of INR9.13b).
Core EBITDA was INR1.63b (v/s our estimate of INR1.57b). Core EBITDA margin was 15.8%, lower than our estimate
of 17.1% due to adverse product mix. Adjusted PAT was INR1.33b (v/s our estimate of INR1.36b), partly boosted by
lower than estimated tax outgo.
Core revenue growth was led by 37% YoY growth in the US generics business and 39% YoY growth in the
branded generics business on the back of (1) 38% YoY growth in domestic formulations business, and (2) 41%
YoY growth in semi-regulated markets. Core EBITDA was in line with our estimate at INR1.63b. Core EBITDA
margin was 15.8%, lower than our estimate of 17.1% due to adverse product mix.
Adjusted PAT was in line with our estimate at INR1.33b, partly boosted by lower than estimated tax rate of
4.6% (our estimate: 19.7%). Reported PAT was INR1.52b.
Valuation and view:
Despite the strong 36% topline growth in FY12, net working capital has come down to ~128
days compared to ~200 days for FY11. Improved working capital and moderate capex will give the management
flexibility to target debt reduction. We expect GNP to gradually reduce its net debt over FY13-14, resulting in
debt-equity improving from 1x to 0.4-05x by FY14. Return ratios are likely to gradually improve over the next two
years. Over FY12-14, we expect RoCE to increase from 12.1% to 19.5%, and RoE from 13.5% to 19.8%. Post the
4QFY12 results, our FY13 and FY14 EPS estimates remain largely unchanged at INR19.8 and INR25.6. The stock
trades at 17.2x FY13E and 13.3x FY14E EPS. We upgrade the stock to
Buy,
with a target price of INR420 (16x FY14E EPS
+ INR12 DCF value for Crofelemer and Para-IV upsides).
Nimish Desai
(NimishDesai@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5406
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423