22 February 2013
Update | Sector: Technology
Tech Mahindra
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
19,325
5,852
CMP: INR1,036
eMerging stronger
TP: INR1,260
Buy
Benefits of integration go beyond de-risked profile
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
TECHM IN
127.8
132/2.4
9/12/52
52-Week Range (INR) 1,069/579
Valuation summary (INR b)
Y/E March
2013E 2014E 2015E
Sales
68.6 76.5 81.2
EBITDA
14.5 15.2 15.0
Adj. PAT
12.6 13.9 15.8
Adj. EPS (INR) 95.5 105.0 120.0
EPS Gr. (%)
35.7
9.9 14.3
BV/Sh.(INR) 421.3 532.8 648.8
RoE (%)
23.4 22.7 21.0
RoCE (%)
22.5 20.5 19.8
Payout (%)
5.2
5.7
6.7
Valuation
P/E (x)
10.8
9.9
8.6
P/BV (x)
2.5
1.9
1.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6
8.2
7.6
Div. Yield (%) 0.5
0.6
0.8
Merger of TECHM with Mahindra Satyam (SCS) will derive synergies from [1] scale -
qualifying the company for large sized deals, [2] cross sell of services and [3] opportunity
to cut cost redundancies.
Client mining potential remains a growth driver at Mahindra Satyam. Growth prospects
are enhanced by increasing invitations in USD50m+ TCV deals.
Expect TECHM to grow steadily despite challenges in Telecom on: [1] ramp ups in a
couple of large deals, [2] continued growth in their 2nd largest account, which is ~23%
of revenues and [3] traction in non BT-execution.
Expect FY13-15 USD revenue CAGR of 12.2% and EPS CAGR of 12%. Buy with a target
price of INR1,260 which discounts FY15E EPS by 10.5x.
Integration benefits go beyond de-risking revenue profile
TECHM's merger synergies with SCS go beyond de-risking revenue profile, and
will potentially drive better revenue growth through: [1] cross sell of services,
[2] higher scale (USD2.7b combined revenue in FY13) facilitating qualifications in
much larger bids, and [3] Removal of cost redundancies, thereby enhancing the
earnings potential further.
SCS: growth potential from client mining after steadying the ship
Having addressed its concerns around client retention, employee retention; legal
battles and profitability, the management bandwidth can now focus fully on
growth. With revenue per client at USD4.4m (annualized) ample growth potential
exists from mining alone. Across the top-tier, the metric ranges between
USD6.5m-USD11.2m. Greater number of invitations in USD50m+ TCV deals bode
positively for its growth prospects.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Dec-12 Sep-12 Dec-11
Promoter
47.5
56.7
70.9
Dom. Inst 20.1
18.7
15.2
Foreign
22.6
15.5
5.3
Others
9.9
9.2
8.6
Expect double-digit growth despite onus on ~82% of the business
Assuming revenues from HGS acquisition (USD169m per annum) and BT (assumed
at USD370m per annum in FY14) to remain flat over FY13-15, this implies the onus
of revenue growth on remaining ~82% of the business. Outside BT, TECHM grew
revenues at 19-23% over FY09-12. Expect TECHM to grow steadily despite
challenges in Telecom on: [1] ramp ups in a couple of large deals, [2] continued
growth in their 2nd largest account, which is ~23% of revenues and [3] traction in
non BT-execution, with the company chasing 5-6 large deals in advanced stages.
Stock performance (1 year)
Benefits from integration could drive the next leg of re-rating; Buy
TECHM trades at 9.9x FY14E EPS and 8.6x FY15E EPS. We believe that better revenue
growth opportunities following integration of SCS along with revenue de-risking
will drive further re-rating in valuations. We value TECHM at a 25% discount to
target multiple for HCLT, due to: [1] relatively smaller scale, [2] skew of revenues
towards Telecom vertical, and [3] Increasing proportion of BPO revenues. Our
target price is INR1,260, which discounts its FY15E EPS by 10.5x.
1
Investors are advised to refer
through disclosures made at the end
of the Research Report.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3982 5424