26 February 2013
Update | Sector: Cement
Ambuja Cements
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
19,332
5,855
CMP: INR200
TP: INR202
Downgrading to Neutral
Premium profitability to dilute, valuations rich; Downgrading
to Neutral
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
ACEM IN
1,542.2
221/136
4/-3/17
Potential capacity constraints and royalty uncertainty risk to CY15 EPS
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 308.1/5.7
Valuation summary (INR b)
Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
2012 2013E 2014E
96.7 108.9 124.0
24.7 26.4 30.5
15.4 17.4 20.6
10.0 11.3 13.4
23.1 37.9 33.7
56.9 63.5 71.6
18.3 18.7 19.8
27.6 27.7 29.2
49.8 41.3 39.2
20.0
3.5
10.7
178
17.7
3.1
9.7
172
14.9
2.8
7.9
157
Lack of timely capacity addition could constrain Ambuja Cements' (ACEM) growth in
CY14-15, if demand growth is higher than estimated 8% CAGR for ACEM.
Increase in royalty will hurt CY13E/14E EPS by 3-4%; further upward revision post
CY14E not ruled out.
ACEM's superior profitability is diluting as peers catch up and ACEM specific cost-push
translate into slower EPS growth.
At an EV of 7.9x CY14E EBITDA and USD162/ton, current valuations factor ACEM's cost
leadership and superior profitability. Downgrade to Neutral on likely operational under-
performance. Our preferred pick is UltraTech/Grasim and Shree Cement.
Lack of meaningful capacity addition could restrict ACEM's growth
ACEM's existing clinker capacity of ~16.5mt is only sufficient for annual cement
production of ~24mt, which is 9% growth over CY12. Its new capacity of 4.5m tons
is expected only in CY15 (orders yet to be placed, awaiting approval from the
board). While it would de-bottleneck capacities to meet growth, any higher than
estimated 8% CAGR in CY12-14, would restrict ACEM's growth in CY14-15.
Royalty increase to hurt CY13E/14E EPS, risk of further increase from
CY15E
Though introduction of royalty fees of 1% (v/s proposal of 2%) to Holcim (in lieu
of fixed fees paid) will impact ACEM's CY13E/14E EPS moderately by 3-4%, it
introduces uncertainty to ACEM's cost structure as rate of royalty will be revised
post CY14. Recent increase in royalty for PT Holcim Indonesia (from existing 1.5%
to 5% from CY13) raises the discomfort over future royalty for ACEM.
Shareholding pattern %
As on
Dec-12 Sep-12 Dec-11
Promoter
50.6
50.7
50.3
Dom. Inst
9.5
10.6
13.6
Foreign
32.4
31.3
28.4
Others
7.5
7.4
7.7
Profitability edge to dilute, reflecting slow EPS growth
We expect a steady dilution in ACEM's premium in profitability over peers hereon
due to (1) limited scope for an uptick in operating leverage and (2) impact of
increased royalty to Holcim. Further, potential risk to profitability exists in the
form of a) gradual reduction in subsidies over next 4-5 years, b) further increase
in royalty from CY15 and c) capacity constraint in CY14/15. ACEM would have
lower EPS CAGR of 15.6% (CY12-14E), against 17-20% for its large peers.
Stock performance (1 year)
Valuations factor premium profitability; Downgrading to Neutral
ACEM is trading at 14%/12% premium to ACC/UltraTech (on CY14 earning
valuation). We believe that at an EV of 7.9x CY14E EBITDA and USD157/ton,
valuations factor ACEM's superior profitability. We downgrade the stock from a
Buy to
Neutral
and value it at 7.9x CY14E EV/EBITDA (v/s 9x earlier) to factor the
risk of further increase in royalty, potentially slower-than-industry growth in
CY15 and gradual reduction in subsidies. Our target price is INR202.
1
Investors are advised to refer
through disclosures made at the end
of the Research Report.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); + 91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +9122 3982 5436