15 March 2013
Annual Report Update | Sector: Cement
Ambuja Cements
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
19,428
5,873
CMP: INR188
TP: INR190
Neutral
Recovery expected in CY13; constantly improving efficiencies
Key takeaways from CY12 Annual Report
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
ACEM IN
1,542.2
289.0/5.3
221/136
0/-10/4
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
2012E 2013E 2014E
96.7
24.7
15.4
10.0
23.1
56.9
18.3
27.6
49.8
18.7
3.3
9.9
164
105.3
24.6
15.6
10.1
24.0
62.4
17.0
25.8
45.9
18.5
3.0
9.7
154
120.0
28.5
19.1
12.4
23.5
69.5
18.8
27.7
42.4
15.2
2.7
7.9
141
Management expects demand to recover in CY13 with 7.5-8% growth, albeit negated
by cost inflations.
Rising energy cost and depleting availability, increasing entry barrier/execution
challenge, CCI penalty, de-allocation of coal blocks are being considered as immediate
overhangs.
Ambuja Cement (ACEM) posted a sub-par volume growth in CY12 led by weak sales
volume in west, south and export, while north and east volume remains steady.
Cost inflations in R/M, energy and freight continues to remain overhangs, albeit
improvement in operating efficiencies in most aspects and various cost savings initiatives
offset the impact partially.
Guided for INR11b of capex in CY13, aiming commencement of construction in 4.5MT
greenfield plant at Rajasthan.
VALUATION & VIEW: For CY13/14, we are downgrading (1) realization growth estimate
to INR8/12.5 per bag (v/s INR10/12.5 earlier), and (2) volume growth to 5.3%/8%
(v/s 8%/8% earlier). This results in 7-8% downgrade in CY13/14 EPS estimates. Maintain
Neutral.
Sub-par volume growth
West-South de-growth, weak infra spend
inhibit CY12 demand
ACEM posted a modest 2.5% YoY growth in CY12 volume (including clinker)
to 21.98MT, which is significantly below the estimated industry growth of
~6.5% YoY.
Volume growth was dragged down by weakness in West and South India
(down 2.6% YoY) driven by (1) shortage construction materials, (2) fewer
new projects, and (3) drought-like situation in many parts of Maharashtra.
In contrast, North and East volumes grew a steady 8.5%/6.9%. Adverse
international market led to decline in cement export to 0.12MT from 0.37MT
in CY11.
Demand was largely driven by rural housing and roads; infrastructure and
construction-led consumption remain subdued due to (1) lack of government
initiatives, (2) extended monsoon, and (3) shortage in construction inputs,
both materials (sand, bricks, water) and labor.
Shareholding pattern %
As on
Dec-12 Sep-12 Dec-11
Promoter
50.6
50.7
50.3
Dom. Inst
9.5
10.6
13.6
Foreign
32.4
31.3
28.4
Others
7.5
7.4
7.7
Stock performance (1 year)
Management commentary
Demand optimism despite cost-side
challenges
Growth to recover in CY13:
The ACEM management believes medium-term
growth outlook for cement demand is intact. The near-term demand upcycle
in expected to start in CY13 driven by (1) positive contribution from hitherto
muted infrastructure and construction demand on the back of upcoming
state and national elections, and (2) potential upturn in investment cycle on
the back of likely monetary easing, policy reform etc. It expects 6%+ GDP
growth to translate into 7.5-8% YoY growth in cement demand.
1
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +9122 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

Ambuja Cements
Cost structure to remain unfavorable:
Rising input costs particularly R/M, freights
and energy will continue to remain the key challenges for industry cost structure,
albeit ACEM's continuous attempt to improve operational efficiencies and mitigate
cost escalations through higher blending alternate fuel etc would offset the
negative impact partially.
Entry barrier is expected to be adverse
eventually with factors like tougher land
acquisition, environment clearances, inadequate supply of R/M and energy
hampering the expansion plan of the manufacturers both in cost and timeline.
Management concerns
Operational and regulatory hurdles continue to
disturb visibility
Energy costs and availability:
On energy, ACEM expects coal price escalations,
stressed supply and faltering quality to remain near-term overhangs. As its part,
ACEM makes constant efforts to improve fuel efficiency - alternative fuel, waste
heat recovery (WHR) system, minimizing heat loss etc.
CCI penalty:
The INR11.64b penalty levied by CCI on ACEM along with several
other cement players is currently pending as an appeal before COMPAT. However,
the penalty amount remains a contingent liability on ACEM's CY12 balance sheet.
De-allocation of coal block:
Citing delay in achieving various operational
milestones, in Nov-12, the Ministry of Coal de-allocated ACEM's coal block in
Maharashtra (where it has 27.27% stake along with IST Steel & Power). While the
appeal against the same is pending before Delhi High Court, the litigation
overshadows the medium-term cost saving opportunity.
Focus on efficiencies
Cost escalations partly offset by proactive measures
ACEM's per ton cost of production rose 6.7% YoY, largely driven by 4% YoY higher
RM + Energy costs and 15.5% YoY higher freight cost.
Management has hinted at major escalations in various cost elements like (a) fly
ash/gypsum (14%/25%), (b) coal used in kiln/CPP (12.5%/8.6%), (c) grid power
(6%), and (d packaging cost (due to hike in PP granule price).
Cost apart, other challenges include (1) non-availability of linkage coal, (2) delay
in Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA) conversion, (3) deteriorating coal quality, etc.
However, ACEM mitigates the impact of cost inflation by constant effort to improve
operational efficiencies. Incremental initiatives in CY12 include: (1) Optimizing
transport cost through new railway siding (Bhatinda grinding), (2) Dedicated road
corridor (seamless flow from Ambujanagar plant), (3) Shorter seas channel (to
BTC Surat), (4) Maximizing alternative fuels and RM, (5) Higher blended cement
(1.48x v/s 1.43x in CY11), etc.
Financial issues highlighted in Annual Report
Land re-classification augmented depreciation:
ACEM's CY12 depreciation charge
was 21% higher YoY despite no meaningful capacity expansion. This sharp increase
is attributable to reclassification of cost of freehold land into mining land and non
mining land. The mining land embeds cost of mineral reserve - which has been
depreciated in proportion of actual quantity of minerals extracted to the estimated
quantity of extractable mineral reserves. This has resulted in INR279m additional
depreciation expense in CY12.
2
15 March 2013

Ambuja Cements
Incentive receivable
under central and state government's incentive scheme stood
at INR2.7b (v/s INR2.49b in CY11). However, the company has classified INR318.4m
under doubtful category (already provided for) v/s nil in CY11.
Operating cash flow
(OCF) improved to INR18.6b in CY12 (up +22% YoY), in line
with uptick in operating margin, up 270bp. Balance sheet continues to remain
strong with net cash of INR38.7b (INR25/share). We believe its steady OCF and
cash surplus offer huge support to its capex plan (guided at INR11b for CY13).
Subsidies received from government
CY12 payment to Holcim for services stands at 0.67% of net
sales (INR m)
Valuation & view
Cutting estimates; valuations fairly reflect fundamentals;
Neutral
Our recent channel checks across regions suggest unusually weak demand in a
seasonally strong period. On the back of weaker outlook on volume recovery and
price sustenance, for CY13/14, we are downgrading (1) realization growth estimates
to INR8/12.5 per bag (v/s INR10/12.5 earlier), and (2) volume growth to 5.3%/8%
(v/s 8%/8% earlier). This results in 7-8% downgrade in CY13/14 EPS estimates.
Moreover, lack of timely capacity addition and limitation in clinker capacity could
constrain ACEM's growth in CY14-15, if demand growth surprises positively.
While increase in royalty will hurt CY13/14 EPS only by 3-4%, it introduces
uncertainty to ACEM's cost structure as rate of royalty will be revised post CY14.
Recent increase in royalty for PT Holcim Indonesia (from existing 1.5% to 5% from
CY13) raises the discomfort over future royalty for ACEM.
We expect ACEM to have lower EPS CAGR of 11.1% (CY12-14E) v/s 17-20% for its
peers like Ultratech, Grasim, and Shree Cement.
At EV of 7.9x CY14E EBITDA and USD141/ton, current valuations factor in ACEM's
cost leadership and superior profitability. Maintain
Neutral
rating on the stock.
Our preferred cement picks are UltraTech/Grasim and Shree Cement.
15 March 2013
3

Ambuja Cements
Key operational highlights
North, East volumes up, other regions lag
Demand growth modest due to drag in west and south region
North grew +8.5%YoY, East +6.5%YoY, while W+S de-grew by
-2.6%YoY (including clinker sales)
Volume mix (m tons)
Sub-par capacity addition dragging down market share
Sub-par capacity addition (only grinding unit addition and
and de-bottlenecking) to lower capacity market share
over CY13/14
Capacity and market share trend
Cost escalations partially offset by proactive measures
ACEM has demonstrated relentless effort to mitigate spiraling costs with incremental initiatives
in CY12 such as
Optimizing transport cost through new railway siding (Bhatinda grinding),
Dedicated road corridor (seamless flow from Ambujanagar plant),
Extensive use of recently discovered shorter sea channel (to BTC Surat)
Maximizing alternative fuels and RM
Higher blended cement (1.48x v/s 1.43x in CY11)
Launching of program called MaCX (marketing and commercial excellence) as a part of
Holcim leadership journey to improve brand dominance and commercial edge in
marketing.
One example of the benefit of ACEM's proactiveness and team commitment is seamless
production achieved at Chandrapur (Maharashtra) plant for 156 days, breaking the previous
record of 65 days by a wide margin.
Power costs under pressure …
In CY12 ACEM continued to see sharp rise in power costs for both inhouse production and
open market purchase. The grid power cost is up 6-7% YoY, while at CPP cost of production is up
9-15% YoY
Trend in power costs
15 March 2013
4

Ambuja Cements
… as also coal costs …
Cost of fuel grew 12.5% YoY in CY12. Costs of coal used in
kiln and CPP by 12.5% and 8.6% respectively (INR/m Kcal)
… necessitating measures like higher blending …
ACEM's blending ratio improves sequentially to 1.48x v/s
1.43x in CY10/11 led by continued focus on cost management
through higher PPC production. It has not purchased any
clinker in CY12
Trend in blended ratio
Cost of fuel (INR/m Kcal)
… and improvement in other operating efficiency metrics
Sustained focus on improving operational efficiencies to combat cost inflation have paid off. Proactive steps include cost-
effective fuel mix, higher alternative fuels (ATF), technological improvement, rising usage of petcoke etc. Overall (energy + RM)
cost/ton for ACEM is up by 4% YoY in CY12. It indicates for 7% CAGR on RM+Fuel cost for ACEM over CY09-12, v/s actual cost
inflation of 12-15%. ATF usage in kiln is up to 1.4% in CY12 from 0.59% in CY11. It plans to invest INR2b in coming years to
optimize 5 integrated plants in favor of ATF usage and higher utilization.
Electricity (KHW/ton of cement)
Coal and other fuel usage (K cal/kg of clinker)
15 March 2013
5

Ambuja Cements
Aggressive INR11b capex plan guidance for CY13
ACEM has guided for INR11b of capex in CY13 (v/s INR6b in CY12) largely towards (a) 2 brownfield and 1 greenfield expansion
and (b) various initiatives to improve logistics and energy efficiencies. Planned capacity expansion would take nameplate
capacity to 28.35MT (CY13), 29.15MT (CY14) and 33.65MT (CY15). However, limited clinker capacity of 16.4MT (18.6MT by
CY15) would remain a constraint despite improvement in blending.
ACEM's capex plan at a glance
Project
Pre-grinder
Brownfield expansion
Greenfield expansion
Capacity
Location
0.6 Bhatapara (Chhattisgarh)
0.8
Sankrail
4.5
Nagaur, Rajasthan
Cost
400
-
-
Status
Completed
CY14
CY15
Objective
Grinding capacity up to 27.95MT
In progress
2.2MT of clinker capacity; Environmental
clearance in place, mining land
acquisition in advance stage,
construction to start at full swing in CY13
Commisioning of roller press
Waste heat recovery to augment fuel
efficiency and optimize power cost
Extend customer reach
Improve matercial handling effciency
To expnad footprint in Southern market
Mechanized packing and grinding will
lend competetive edge in Gujarat market
To optimize and enhance effciencies
Brownfield expansion
WHR
WHR
Railsway siding
Automatic wagon loading
Bulk Cement terminal
Blending facility
13 new projects
0.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Rabriyawas, Rajasthan
Rajasthan
Maharashtra
Rajashthan
Farraka, WB
Mangalore
Sanad, Gujarat
Various locations
700
750
900
NA
320
NA
2670
2720
CY13
Sep-13
CY14
NA
1HCY13
3QCY15
1HCY14
Higher realization drives CY12 PAT
Despite cost push, ACEM's profitability improved in CY12 led by higher realizations. However, CY13 is expected to witness
deterioration in profitability due to weaker demand and pricing outlook.
EBITDA/ton and EBITDA margin trend
PAT and PAT growth trend
RoCE/RoE trend: Uptick in CY12
Trend in payout: Steady rise
15 March 2013
6

Ambuja Cements
Financials and Valuation
Income Statement
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income - Rec.
PBT before EO Exp.
EO Expense/(Income)
PBT after EO Exp.
Current Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
PAT Adj for EO Items
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Net Profit
No of Shares (Mn - FV: INRX)
Adj EPS
2010
73,902
4.4
55,666
75.3
18,236
-2.3
24.7
3,872
14,364
487
2,476
16,353
-265
16,619
3,532
450
24.0
12,636
12,434
4.7
16.8
12,434
1529.85
8.1
2011
85,043
15.1
65,656
77.2
19,387
6.3
22.8
4,452
14,935
526
2,978
17,387
358
17,029
3,613
1,127
27.8
12,289
12,547
0.9
14.8
12,547
1534.35
8.2
2012
96,749
13.8
72,074
74.5
24,675
27.3
25.5
5,373
19,302
757
4,042
22,588
3,570
19,018
6,048
0
31.8
12,971
15,435
23.0
16.0
15,435
1542.2
10.0
2013E
105,334
8.9
80,723
76.6
24,611
-0.3
23.4
5,379
19,232
672
4,600
23,161
0
23,161
6,796
728
32.5
15,636
15,636
1.3
14.8
15,636
1542.2
10.1
(INR Million)
2014E
120,010
13.9
91,533
76.3
28,477
15.7
23.7
5,566
22,911
625
5,350
27,636
0
27,636
7,738
829
31.0
19,069
19,069
22.0
15.9
19,069
1542.2
12.4
Balance Sheet
Y/E December
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Deferred Liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
15 March 2013
2010
3,060
70,241
73,301
5,309
650
79,260
87,788
31,511
56,278
9,307
6,260
31,353
9,019
1,282
16,482
4,571
23,942
12,976
10,966
7,412
79,260
2011
3,069
77,626
80,694
6,436
466
87,597
97,023
35,158
61,865
4,868
8,643
40,043
9,250
2,409
20,691
7,694
27,822
15,909
11,913
12,221
87,597
2012
3,084
84,966
88,051
5,483
395
93,929
101,836
43,213
58,624
5,201
16,558
43,864
9,839
2,134
22,537
9,353
30,318
15,904
14,414
13,545
93,929
2013E
3,084
93,305
96,389
6,211
500
103,100
105,038
48,591
56,446
10,000
18,707
47,617
11,544
2,886
23,087
10,101
29,671
14,375
15,295
17,946
103,100
(INR Million)
2014E
3,084
104,295
107,380
7,040
500
114,920
109,038
54,157
54,880
16,000
23,515
54,251
13,152
3,288
26,304
11,508
33,726
16,300
17,426
20,525
114,920
7

Ambuja Cements
Financials and Valuation
Ratios
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton (Cap) - USD
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
2010
8.1
10.7
47.8
2.6
36.7
2011
8.2
11.1
52.4
3.2
46.7
2012
10.0
13.5
56.9
3.5
49.8
2013E
10.1
13.6
62.4
4.0
45.9
2014E
12.4
16.0
69.5
5.0
42.4
18.7
13.9
3.3
2.5
9.9
164
1.9
18.5
13.8
3.0
2.3
9.7
154
2.1
15.2
11.7
2.7
1.9
7.9
141
2.7
18.1
24.1
16.3
23.2
18.3
27.6
17.0
25.8
18.8
27.7
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
0.9
Debtor (Days)
6
Working Capital Turnover (Days) 37
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
1.0
10
52
1.0
8
51
1.0
10
62
1.0
10
62
1.3
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.6
0.0
1.6
0.0
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E December
Op. Profit/(Loss) before Tax
Interest/Dividends Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
EO Income
CF from Op. incl EO Exp
(inc)/dec in FA
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
15 March 2013
2010
18,236
2,476
-3,983
2,617
19,347
265
19,612
-7,870
965
-6,905
618
-534
-487
-4,632
-5,035
7,673
8,809
16,482
2011
20,260
1,555
-4,722
-203
16,890
0
16,890
-6,233
196
-6,037
462
738
-251
-5,697
-4,748
6,105
16,482
22,586
2012
25,393
2,340
-6,399
-417
20,917
0
20,917
-6,870
601
-6,269
831
-636
-275
-4,964
-5,044
9,604
20,691
30,295
2013E
24,611
4,600
-7,525
-3,851
17,835
0
17,835
-8,000
-2,149
-10,149
-117
833
-672
-7,181
-7,137
550
22,537
23,087
(INR Million)
2014E
28,477
5,350
-8,567
638
25,898
0
25,898
-10,000
-4,808
-14,808
0
829
-625
-8,078
-7,874
3,217
23,087
26,304
8

Ambuja Cements
N O T E S
15 March 2013
9

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2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock
3. Broking relationship with company covered
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered
Ambuja Cements
No
No
No
No
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