Metals Weekly
22 April 2013
Metals Weekly
Valuations: Indian companies
Price
EV/EBITDA P/BV
(INR) FY14E FY15E FY14E
Steel
Tata Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Sesa Goa
Non-ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
HZL
Nalco
Hindalco
305
62
724
339
124
151
88
112
34
94
6.1
6.1
7.2
7.9
3.2
10.6
3.0
2.9
4.0
5.9
6.2
5.9
6.4
6.3
2.7
5.2
2.5
2.2
3.0
5.4
1.2
0.6
0.9
1.4
1.5
0.9
0.6
1.3
0.7
0.8
TMT- Mumbai (INR/ton)
HRC- Mumbai (INR/ton)
HRC (USD/ton) fob CIS
Metal Prices
CMP
22-Apr
34,800
35,009
565
%
0
-4
0
-3
2
-3
-2
-1
0
2
2
-1
1
2
0
-7
-7
-2
-3
-2
0
Week
15-Apr
34,900
36,565
565
20,150
24,500
143
260
376
5,199
1,841
99
1,127
1,843
99
612
7,509
402
Quarter
% 1-Apr
0 34,900
-4 36,565
0
565
-1 19,800
3 24,200
1
138
-4
265
-3
385
-1
-1
-1
-5
-1
-1
8
-8
-8
5,228
1,881
102
1,171
1,870
102
571
7,582
408
%
-3
-2
5
YTD CY13
1-Jan
35,900
35,676
538
21,150
24,200
141
330
378
5,210
2,040
112
1,221
2,034
111
321
7,915
441
30,631
57,172
2,340
0.98
Sponge iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
19,600
Pig iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
25,000
Iron ore spot (USD/ton) cfr China
139
Coke (USD/ton) fob
255
Shred. scrap (USD/ton) Rotterdam
373
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
5,186
1,871
101
1,111
1,857
100
614
6,975
375
-7
3
-2
-23
-1
0
-8
-10
-9
-9
-10
92
-12
-15
-15
-23
-14
4
Note: Detailed table on pg 23
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global companies
Price
Mining
BHP
AUD 33.4
FMG
AUD 4.0
Rio Tinto AUD 56.9
Vale
USD 17.5
Teck Res. USD 27.8
Xstrata
GBp 1043
Steel
A. Mittal
EUR 9.3
Posco k KRW 320.5
US Steel USD 17.5
Nucor
USD 44.3
JFE
JPY 2030
Gerdau
BRL 14.5
Bao Steel CNY 4.9
Non-ferrous
Alcoa
USD 8.2
Norsk Hyd. NOK 25.7
Rusal
HKD 4.3
Detailed on pg 23
EV/EBITDA
CY13 CY14
6.9
7.2
5.6
5.3
6.3
7.0
6.0
5.1
5.3
8.6
11.4
7.3
5.9
5.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3
6.2
5.0
4.7
4.2
6.2
7.3
6.0
5.6
P/BV
CY13
2.4
2.3
1.8
1.1
0.9
1.0
0.4
0.7
0.7
1.8
0.8
1.1
0.8
Gold (INR/10gms)
25,959
Sliver (INR/1kg)
43,943
Lead Spot LME (USD/ton)
2,008
FC 6-8% C basis 60% Cr (USD/lb Cr) 1.02
INR/USD
BDI
26,450 -12 29,526
45,117 -16 52,621
2,046 -4 2,094
1.02 -1
1.03
54.1 -1
54.6 -1
54.5
-1
54.7
888
1
876 -2
910
27
699
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, Steel Mint, MOSL
Iron ore and coking coal decline 3% and 1% WoW: Copper slides
continues, down 7% WoW
Steel prices continue to remain weak and declined 1.5% , 0.5% and
2%WoW respectively in Europe, Turkey and China. Prices were flat WoW
in North America and CIS region. China Steel Corp, Taiwan's largest steel
maker, has decided to cut domestic wholesale prices of its products for
June, citing a supply glut as a reason.
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
BSE Metals Index
Indian steel prices were also weak as TMT, Mumbai prices decreased
Sensex
0.3% WoW while HRC (Import parity) declined 4.3% WoW. Sponge iron
104
prices decreased 2.7% WoW while Pellet prices improved 3% WoW.
102
Iron ore prices(63.5% Fe CFR China) decreased 3% WoW to USD139/t.
100
Coking coal prices (Premium Low vol, Fob Australia) declined by
98
USD2WoW to USD149/t. FMG, Australia's based iron ore exporter, said
96
low inventory levels will keep the price of iron ore at USD139-140/t in
the short-term which may decline to USD120-130/t in the longer term.
Base metals price were mixed with Aluminum and Zinc recovering by
Source: Bloomberg
2% and 1% WoW respectively while Copper and Lead declined by 7%
Note: Indexed to 100 on 15 April 2013
and 2% WoW respectively.
Stock performance table on pg 24
Glencore has agreed to supply China with 900,000dmt of copper
Investors are advised to refer through
concentrates per year as a part of the Chinese ministry of commerce's
disclosures made at the end of the
Research Report.
approval of Glencore's takeover of Xstrata.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5412
22 April 2013
1
Pavas Pethia
(Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5413
7.0
6.0
0.7
7.5
5.6
0.7
15.2 13.5
0.7
Source: Bloomberg