Metals Weekly
3 June 2013
Metals Weekly
Valuations: Indian companies
Price
EV/EBITDA P/BV
(INR) FY14E FY15E FY14E
Steel
Tata Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Sesa Goa
Non-ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
HZL
Nalco
Hindalco
Rain Comm.
294
56
690
286
117
161
93
115
34
103
39
5.7
7.8
6.9
7.6
3.7
31.4
3.3
3.4
5.2
6.8
5.5
6.1
8.1
6.1
6.3
3.5
6.0
2.9
2.7
4.6
6.3
4.5
1.1
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.0
0.6
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.5
TMT- Mumbai (INR/ton)
HRC- Mumbai (INR/ton)
HRC (USD/ton) fob CIS
Metal Prices
CMP
3-Jun
34,100
32,445
518
%
1
-2
-4
Week
Quarter
27-May
% 1-Apr
33,700 -2 34,900
33,246 -11 36,565
540 -8
565
19,300 -5 19,800
25,200
4 24,200
125 -18
138
240 -11
265
345 -12
385
5,213
1,814
101
1,096
1,823
101
620
7,240
408
-1
0
4
-7
1
5
7
-5
1
5,228
1,881
102
1,171
1,870
102
571
7,582
408
%
-5
-9
-4
YTD CY13
1-Jan
35,900
35,676
538
21,150
24,200
141
330
378
5,210
2,040
112
1,221
2,034
111
321
7,915
441
30,631
57,172
2,340
0.98
Sponge iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
18,800 -3
Pig iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
25,200
0
Iron ore spot (USD/ton) cfr China
113 -10
Coke (USD/ton) fob
235 -2
Shred. scrap (USD/ton) Rotterdam
337 -2
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
5,202
1,875
106
1,087
1,882
106
608
7,241
410
0
3
5
-1
3
5
-2
0
1
2
0
7
0
-11
4
-20
-29
-11
0
-8
-5
-11
-7
-5
90
-9
-7
-12
-24
-6
3
Note: Detailed table on pg 23
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global companies
Price
Mining
BHP
AUD 34.9
FMG
AUD 3.4
Rio Tinto AUD 55.2
Vale
USD 14.4
Teck Res. USD 26.7
Steel
A. Mittal
EUR 9.9
Posco
k KRW 322
US Steel USD 17.7
Nucor
USD 44.5
JFE
JPY 2145
Gerdau
BRL 13.1
Bao Steel CNY 4.8
Non-ferrous
Alcoa
USD 8.5
Norsk Hyd. NOK 26.7
Rusal
HKD 3.71
Detailed on pg 23
BSE Metals Index
Sensex
102
100
98
96
EV/EBITDA
CY13 CY14
7.0
6.2
5.6
4.8
5.9
6.3
5.5
7.0
9.8
7.1
7.8
7.3
6.2
4.5
5.1
4.8
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.7
6.6
6.6
6.4
6.3
P/BV
CY13
2.4
1.8
1.7
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.8
0.7
1.1
0.8
Gold (INR/10gms)
26,850
Sliver (INR/1kg)
43,550
Lead Spot LME (USD/ton)
2,193
FC 6-8% C basis 60% Cr (USD/lb Cr) 1.01
INR/USD
BDI
26,444 -9 29,526
43,638 -17 52,621
2,056
5 2,094
1.01 -2
1.03
56.4
2
55.6
4
54.5
3
54.7
809 -2
826 -11
910
16
699
Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, Steel Mint, MOSL
7.3
6.3
0.7
8.3
6.4
0.8
16.3 14.5
0.6
Source: Bloomberg
Iron ore down 10% WoW; Base metals improve 0-7% WoW
Steel prices continue to remain weak and declined by 4%, 2% and 0.5%
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Indexed to 100 on 27 May 2013
Stock performance table on pg 24
Investors are advised to refer through
disclosures made at the end of the
Research Report.
WoW in CIS, China and Turkey respectively. Prices were flat in Europe.
However North America was an exception as HRC prices bounced back
from three year low levels, increasing 3.6% WoW.
Indian long steel prices TMT (Mumbai) increased 1% WoW, while flat
product prices HRC (Import parity, Mumbai) declined 2% WoW. Sponge
iron prices has decreased 3% WoW, while Scrap prices improved 1.4%
WoW. Pellet prices declined INR400/t WoW to INR7,000/t.
Iron ore prices (63.5% Fe CFR China) decreased 10%WoW to USD113/t.
Coking coal prices (Premium Low vol, Fob Australia) declined USD3 WoW
to USD137/t.
Base metals price improved with aluminium, Lead and Zinc prices
increasing by 3% , 7% and 3% WoW respectively while Copper was flat
WoW.
Sterlite Tuticorin smelter is expected to resume operations after NGT
gave conditional approval.
NMDC has rolled over May prices for lumps and fines to June.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5412
3 June 2013
Pavas Pethia
(Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5413
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