27 July 2013
2QCY13 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Bata India
BSE SENSEX
19,748
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
5,886
BATA IN
64.3
52.1/0.9
990/687
1/10/-21
CMP: INR878
TP: INR1,036
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E DEC
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Adj.EPS
(INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2012 2013E 2014E
21.1
3.2
2.0
31.5
17.8
132
30.3
26.2
27.9
6.7
24.8
3.9
2.6
39.8
26.3
162
11.5
27.1
22.1
5.4
29.1
4.7
3.1
49.0
23.0
198
10.7
27.3
18.0
4.4
Revenues in-line; SSS up 10% YoY:
Net sales grew 13.6% YoY to INR5.72b (v/s our
estimate of INR5.82b), primarily driven by volume growth of 2% YoY, higher
realizations and better product mix. Same store sales (SSS) grew 10% YoY in value
terms and 2-3% YoY in volume terms, which is exciting. Bata opened 37 stores
and closed/remodeled 15-20 stores in 1HCY13. To increase brand recall and
educate consumers on its newer offerings, Bata has hired DDB Mudra for
advertisement and marketing initiatives. It has planned a prime time television,
radio and print campaign in 2HCY13, which should improve brand visibility. It
plans to open 90-100 new stores in CY13, which should help drive growth.
EBITDA margin surprises positively, driving PAT:
EBITDA margin expanded 30bp
YoY to 16.8% (v/s our estimate of 16%), driven by 50bp YoY gross margin
expansion and 30bp YoY reduction in employee cost. Rent increased by 20bp YoY
to 10.9% of sales, significantly lower than our estimate of 12%. The management
was able to keep rent under control by focusing on opening more stores on
revenue sharing basis and by negotiating with existing store owners. Adjusted
PAT grew 17.6% YoY to INR619m (v/s our estimate of INR599m).
Plant modernization and premiumization to drive up margins:
Bata’s gross
margin expanded 50bp in 1HCY13, primarily on account of reduction in raw
material cost and focus on premiumization. The company plans to spend
~INR500m on plant modernization, which should help improve productivity and
throughput, in turn aiding margin expansion.
Valuation and view:
Given Bata’s strong franchise, improved merchandise, strong
balance sheet, and improving growth visibility, we believe that its premium
valuations are justified. We revise our margin assumptions upwards, resulting in
~2% upgrade in our earnings estimates for CY13 and CY14. Maintain
Buy,
with a
target price of INR1,036 (26x CY13E EPS of 39.8).
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report