12 August 2013
1QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
Sun Pharma
BSE SENSEX
18,789
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
S&P CNX
5,566
SUNP IN
2,068.0
581/321
-3/39/43
CMP: INR507
TP: INR600
Upgrade to Buy
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 1,050/17.8
Financials & Valuation (INR B)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Rep.EPS
(INR) EPS
Core
(
)
Gr.(%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2013 2014E 2015E
112.4
49.1
32.8
14.5
14.5
41
72
24.1
31.5
32.0
7.0
153.4
66.7
42.6
12.3
12.3
30
93
24.8
24.1
24.6
5.4
177.3
73.6
48.8
26.3
26.3
14
115
22.6
34.1
21.5
4.4
Sun Pharma (SUNP) reported 31% revenue growth to INR34.8b (v/s est.
INR34.3b), a 26% EBITDA growth to INR15.3b (v/s est. INR14.9b) and 35% PBT
growth to INR15.1b (v/s est. INR14.3b). The company reported a net loss of
INR12.1b (v/s est. INR8.71b), impacted by INR25.2b provision for Protonix
settlement payment.
Revenue growth was aided by (1) 44% YoY growth in India formulations on a low
base (like-to-like growth of 11%) and (2) 32% YoY growth in US despite YoY
decline in Taro sales. RoW formulations grew 23% YoY.
We estimate one-off contribution (from Doxorubicin and Comtan) at INR2b to
sales, INR1.1b to EBITDA and INR690m to PAT for the quarter. Adjusted for these,
we estimate core revenue at INR32.85b (v/s est. INR32.37b), core EBITDA at
INR14.2b (v/s est. INR13.8b) and core PAT at INR11.72b (v/s est. INR9.6b). Core
EBITDA margin was down 180bp YoY to 43.3% (marginally above est. 42.7%),
mainly impacted by weaker-than-expected operational performance at Taro.
Adjusted PAT is much higher than estimate due to lower-than-expected tax rate
on operational income (10% v/s est. 19%).
Post 1QFY14 results, we raise FY14E/15E estimates by 10%/14% to reflect (1) higher
sales growth due to stronger-than-expected ramp-up in DUSA Pharma and URL and
(2) lower tax rate in FY14E/15E at 15%/18% v/s 19%/20% earlier. We estimate core
EPS to witness a CAGR of 22% over FY13-15E. The stock trades at 24.6x FY14E and
21.5x FY15E core EPS. We value SUNP’s core business at INR588/share (25x FY15E)
and Para IV pipeline, including generic Doxil and Prandin, at INR12/share, thus giving
us a target price of INR600/share, an upside of 19% from the current levels. Strong
earnings growth coupled with superior execution track record make SUNP an
attractive investment opportunity at the current levels; upgrade to
Buy.
Alok Dalal
(Alok.Dalal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Hardick Bora
(Hardick.Bora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.