Thursday, September 05, 2013
Market Overview
Oilseeds complex corrected once again as Rupee
strengthened. Soybean traded sideways while Soy
oil fell. Mustard seed, CPO and Castor Seed also
declined.
Concerns regarding health of the standing crop in
soybean, coupled with a weakening Rupee have
kept the market bullish for last few weeks. Rupee
seems to be consolidating in 66.00-68.50 range for
now. Hence some consolidation in oilseeds and
edible oils also seems in order. Sometime going
ahead, possibly in October we may expect a deep
correction in soybean prices as new crop harvesting
gets underway.
Rally in guarseed continued, though a selloff was
seen intraday. The market hit 4% upper circuit limit
briefly, but selling was seen post that resulting into
a deep correction to 6330. This however was short
lived, and the market gained more than 3% for the
day to close at 6550. We feel this rally is sentiment
driven as the market has fallen into a positive
feedback loop. The fundamentals are not supportive
as large stocks are being held by the farmers.
September chana declined sharply and may
continue to do so today
Cotton complex declined again as October cotton
lost 2.4%, closing at 22320. Kapas gave up the
previous day’s gains as April closed at 1038, losing
Rs.7. Cotton cake lost Rs.13 as September closed at
1773. The markets will remain choppy going ahead
until new arrivals start in October- November. Short
term range for October is 22200-23300.
September Jeera declined 2.5% to close at 13780.
Strong support is seen around 13680. In case Rupee
does not strengthen too much going ahead, jeera
may rise again from current levels.
September coriander declined 1.5% to close at
5860. Availability of coriander remains sound for
now, but the market is just about sufficiently
supplied for the crop year ending February. Some
tightness may be seen in later months, and the
market is seen adjusting to the supply fundamentals
gradually.
Chilli hit 4% lower circuit limit as September closed
at 5442. Turmeric declined 1.3% to close at 5098
basis September contract
Commodity
Chana
Chilli
Turmeric
Jeera
Soyabean
Soyoil
R M Seed
CPO
Sugar
Wheat
Mentha Oil
Castor Seed
Potato
Exchange
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
MCX
Expiry
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Oct
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Sept
Price
3094
5442
5084
13715
3558.5
701.95
3562
555.1
3002
1563
947
3685
800.7
%
Change
-2.18%
-3.99%
-1.59%
-2.92%
-0.15%
-1.65%
-2.33%
-1.53%
-0.17%
0.26%
-4.30%
-3.46%
0.24%
Chart of the Day – Chana
As shown on daily chart, NCDEX chana is trading
with negative bias in last two trading sessions but
failed to break below 3130 which act as strong
support. Sustained break below 3130 will confirm
weakness and can take prices towards 3050 – 3000.
Till prices holds above the same can give pullback
towards 3215. Sell on sustained break below 3130
should be the strategy
1
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.