October 30th, 2013
Currency
USDINR
EURINR
GBPINR
JPYINR
Expiry
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
Call
Open
61.9350
85.4400
99.8975
63.6125
Currency Futures (NSE)
High
Low
62.1350
61.6025
85.9750
84.9100
100.0700
99.2850
63.7350
63.1750
Option Monitor
Premium
1.4700
0.4800
0.0025
0.0025
0.0025
Previous
0.53
8.25
27.25
28.89
Strike Price
60.00
61.00
62.00
63.00
64.00
Close
61.7900
85.0000
99.3375
63.2175
% chg
-0.12%
-0.51%
-0.88%
-0.26%
Put
OI
158445
9005
3641
1637
Pivot
61.84
85.30
99.56
63.38
S1
Support - Resistance for the day
S2
R1
61.55
61.31
62.08
84.62
84.23
85.68
99.06
98.78
99.84
63.02
62.82
63.58
OPEN INTEREST Distribution
R2
62.38
86.36
100.35
63.94
IV
23.09
10.50
10.64
21.60
30.73
OI
2650
26312
40711
32908
20237
Volume
464
6463
20052
4691
594
Current
0.58
8.25
27.25
28.89
Premium
0.0025
0.0025
0.5275
1.5275
2.5175
28
PCR
30 Day Volatility
Call Implied Vol
Put Implied Vol
Days to
expiry
36336
40439
19793
32541
5308
FII Activity
Action
Rs. (Crs)
BUY
2322
SELL
1665
NET
658
Market Snapshot
Volume
1697
15798
9159
620
1397
OI
IV
21.18
12.30
13.45
29.77
53.77
$ (Mil)
386
277
109
64.00
63.00
62.00
61.00
60.00
0
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Put
Call
USDINR:INR
continues to trade range bound even as the major event of RBI monetary policy unfolded. The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates for the second time in as many months on Tuesday, warning that inflation is likely to remain
elevated despite sluggish growth, and rolled back an emergency measure put in place in July to support the rupee. Facing some of the fiercest price pressures in Asia, the RBI lifted its policy repo rate by 25bps to 7.75%. While some RBI
watchers say he may not yet be finished tightening, markets took comfort that Rajan's tone wasn't more hawkish and bond yields saw their biggest drop in three weeks. USDINR slashed down sharply after the RBI policy but failed to close below
our recommended support of 61.70. Price sustaining below the same will signify triangle break down and could test 61.49 – 61.20 – 60.90. But if prices continue to hold above 61.70 - 61.60 then will trade sideways to up. Immediate resistance is
at 62.10 and sustained breach above could test 62.35 – 62.50. For intraday, Buy should be the strategy till holds above 61.70-61.60, sustain break below will turn bias negative
EURINR:
The dollar rose against Euro on Tuesday despite uninspiring economic indicators hitting the wire earlier, as investors viewed the safety in USD ahead of the Fed on interest rates and monetary policy. The Conference Board said its
index of consumer confidence dropped to 71.2 in October from an upwardly revised reading of 80.2 in September. U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in September. PPI contracted 0.1% in September, defying gains for a 0.2% gain. The data cemented
expectations that the Fed will maintain its monthly bond-buying program for the near future, possibly into first quarter of next year, to safeguard U.S. economic recovery. Rallies towards 85.15 – 85.25 can be sold with protective stop loss above
85.40 targeting 84.75. But all short positions should be exited if it trades and sustains above 85.40
GBPINR:
The pound softened against the dollar on Tuesday as the greenback enjoyed safe-haven demand from investors awaiting the Fed’s Wednesday announcement on U.S. interest rates and monetary policy. The pound found little support
after the Bank of England said mortgage approvals rose to 66,735 in September from an upwardly revised 63,396 in August. The BoE said net mortgage lending ticked down to GBP1 billion pounds in September, from an upwardly revised
GBP1.1 billion in August. Pound is likely to find support at 1.5894, the low from Oct. 16, and resistance at 1.6247. Also today, the FOMC Meeting and release of the ADP report on nonfarm payrolls and official data on consumer price inflation will
keep markets busy. Any upside towards 99.40 – 99.60 can be used as good selling opportunity targeting 98.80 – 98.55. Protective stop loss should be 99.92. Strong resistance is at 100.12 and prices sustain above will turn bias positive
JPYINR:
The dollar traded higher against the Japanese yen following the release of Japanese industrial production data. Early this morning, Japan’s industrial production released showed a rise of 1.5% last month after falling 0.9% in August.
Economists expected a September increase of 1.8%. Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 4% last month from 4.1% in August. Household spending rose 3.7% in September after falling 1.6% in August. Should the Fed even hint at tapering, the
dollar could rally, forcing the yen lower in the process. Some Japanese bankers and policymakers have expressed concern U.S. monetary policy will stay loose for too long, forcing the yen higher and derailing the Japanese economic recovery.
Looks to trade in a range of 62.60 – 63.42. Break of this range will confirm further view