November 18th, 2013
Currency
USDINR
EURINR
GBPINR
JPYINR
Expiry
NOV
NOV
NOV
NOV
Call
Open
63.3500
85.3525
101.6500
63.5975
Currency Futures (NSE)
High
Low
63.6125
63.0900
85.4900
84.9700
101.8225
101.1600
63.6300
63.3100
Option Monitor
Premium
3.3625
2.5400
1.5700
0.7625
0.2650
Previous
0.57
8.25
11.80
12.51
Strike Price
60.00
61.00
62.00
63.00
64.00
Close
63.5150
85.2550
101.6125
63.5375
% chg
-0.23%
-0.16%
0.04%
-0.65%
Put
OI
158445
9005
3641
1637
Pivot
63.41
85.24
101.53
63.49
S1
Support - Resistance for the day
S2
R1
63.20
62.88
63.72
84.99
84.72
85.51
101.24
100.87
101.90
63.36
63.17
63.68
OPEN INTEREST Distribution
R2
63.93
85.76
102.19
63.81
IV
18.46
21.07
15.63
12.48
11.27
OI
2558
11974
38911
48378
35661
Volume
1
325
2753
28793
44485
Current
0.58
8.25
12.26
10.61
Premium
0.0075
0.0150
0.0450
0.2575
0.7500
11
PCR
30 Day Volatility
Call Implied Vol
Put Implied Vol
Days to
expiry
17572
21824
48733
104574
25201
FII Activity
Action
Rs. (Crs)
BUY
2563
SELL
2186
NET
377
Market Snapshot
Volume
1572
5912
25576
62691
10679
OI
IV
13.00
10.59
8.52
8.34
6.09
$ (Mil)
426
364
63
64.00
63.00
62.00
61.00
60.00
0
50000
100000
150000
Put
Call
USDINR:
The INR continues to appreciate against the USD appreciating for the second session closing around 62.89 spot. Fundamental development on Wednesday kept the market buoyant the next day making the session volatile. Yellen on
Wednesday said the U.S. central bank has "more work to do" to help an economy and labour conditions that are still under-performing, while Rajan sought to temper concerns about India's own economy and about the threat posed by the return
of dollar demand by oil companies into markets. USDINR (Nov Contract) traded with negative bias in past two trading sessions. The 14-period RSI is signifying some weakness in prices. Support for the day is at 62.80. Immediate resistance is at
63.60 and sustained breach above could test 64.00. For the day, the pair looks to be in the range of 62.80 – 63.60
EURINR:
The EUR/USD also traded flat closing at 1.34. The eurozone CPI met expectations but did not help support the euro today. Price action for the major global currency pairs started when Yellen categorically pinned and came out strongly
in support of a continuation of QE in the States, observing that it represented, “the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.” The U.S. dollar continued to make gains against the euro on Friday in European trading
amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick with its easy-money policies, while European stocks wavered in a tight range. For the Indian pair, immediate resistance is at 85.52, till holds below will trade with negative bias. Support
is at 84.95 and sustained breach below could test 84.75.
GPBINR:The
GBP/USD remains flat trading around 1.60 mark after the Bank of England Inflation report and a stronger US dollar after markets digested a statement and testimony by the soon to be Fed leader, Janet Yellen. The GBP ignored a
weaker-than-forecast Retail Sales report yesterday and continued to appreciate against most of the majors in reaction to Wednesday’s hawkish Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. The domestic pair has support at 101.00, and till it holds
above will trade sideways to up. Immediate resistance is at 101.85 and sustained breach above could test 102.12
JPYINR:
The USD/JPY broke over the 100 price number after testimony from the Fed’s Janet Yellen late yesterday. Many of lawmakers’ questions focused on what the Fed has done to shore up the banking sector and central bank’s progress in
crafting new regulations required under sweeping reforms passed by Congress three years ago. In the Japanese data, comments from Finance Minister Taro Aso about possible currency market intervention pushed down the yen. After GDP data
printed on a weak note earlier in the day. We expect the JPYINR pair to trade with a negative bias till holds below 63.35. Support is at 62.55.

Economic Data
Yesterday
GDP (QoQ)
Initial Jobless Claims
Trade Balance
Today
Trade Balance
TIC NetLongTerm Transactions
NAHB Housing Market Index
Currency
EUR
USD
USD
Currency
EUR
USD
USD
Actual
-0.4%
339K
-41.78Bn
Expected
14.2B
21.3B
55
Prior
0.3%
336K
-38.80Bn
Prior
12.3B
-8.9B
55
Impact
HIGH
HGH
HIGH
Impact
MILD
MILD
MILD
Technical Chart
Debt Market
Forward
LIBOR 1-Mth
LIBOR 3-Mth
MIBOR 1-Mth
MIBOR 3-Mth
US 5Yr Yield
US 10Yr Yield
IND 10Yr Yield
Call Money rate
Last
0.17
0.24
9.03
9.23
99.52
100.33
88.33
8.80
1 Day ago
% Chg
0.17
0.00%
0.24
0.15%
9.02
-0.11%
9.20
-0.33%
99.55
0.04%
100.42
0.09%
88.92
0.66%
8.75
-0.57%
Currency
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
CHF
AUD
NZD
CNY
Currency Crosses
Close
1.3492
1.6118
100.2100
1.0436
0.9149
0.9382
0.8340
6.0915
MTD %
-0.28%
-0.56%
1.76%
1.06%
1.07%
0.53%
0.54%
-0.46%
YTD %
2.26%
-0.82%
15.56%
5.20%
-0.04%
-9.70%
0.74%
-2.22%
Forward
1-Mth Frd
3-Mth Frd
6-Mth Frd
1-Yr Frd
1-Mth NDF
3-Mth NDF
6-Mth NDF
1-Yr NDF
Last
Forward Markets
60.5875
61.5525
62.8400
65.2225
60.8350
61.9850
63.4930
66.0250
1 Day ago
% Chg
60.5875
61.5525
62.8400
65.2225
60.8600
61.9850
63.4900
66.0600
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.04%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.05%
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