29 April 2014
4QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Automobiles
TVS Motor Company
BSE SENSEX
22,466
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,715
TVSL IN
475.1
43.8/0.7
101/28
-4/79/121
CMP: INR92
TP: INR126
Buy
Superior margin performance, outlook remains strong
TVS Motor’s (TVSL) 4QFY14 results were above estimate, with EBITDA margin at 6.4%
(v/s est. of 5.3%), resulting in Adj. PAT growth of 41% YoY to INR822m. Margins
(adjusted for one-time excise duty cut impact) stood at 6.9% (v/s 5.4% in 4QFY13).
Earnings call highlights:
a) TVSL to outperform industry growth of 8-10% for FY15, led
by new launches, b)
Jupiter
continues strong performance; hikes scooter capacity from
25,000 to 45,000/m, c) plans to launch all-new
Star City plus
(110cc motorcycle) and
Scooty Zest
(110cc variant) during 1QFY15, d)
Victor
(110cc motorcycle) to be re-
launched during 2HFY15, e) BMW tie-up on track, with first product launch during
2HCY15, f) FY14 investments: INR500m in Indonesia and INR750m in TVS Credit
Services (finance arm), g) capex guidance of INR2.5b for FY15 (flat YoY), h) Expects
losses in Indonesia to continue with cash break-even at 6,000 units/m (EBITDA loss of
USD9m in FY14), i) declares second interim dividend of INR0.75/share, amounting to
total dividend of INR1.4/share (v/s INR1.2/share in FY13).
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2014 2015E 2016E
79,619 95,675 109,657
4,781
2,612
5.5
44.4
29.8
19.8
20.1
16.8
3.1
6,585
4,006
8.4
53.3
36.1
25.6
27.1
10.9
2.6
7,931
4,971
10.5
24.1
43.9
26.1
28.9
8.8
Upgrade FY15E/16E EPS by 7.3%/5%; maintain Buy
2.1
We upgrade FY15E/16E EPS by 7.3%/5% on superior margin performance, partially
offset by higher depreciation charges on increased capex guidance.
TVSL is well positioned to benefit from the scooterization wave with its complete
scooter portfolio. Over the next 12-18 months, it plans to launch multiple products
across segments to reinforce and fill gaps in the portfolio.
Expect EPS CAGR of 38% with return ratios (RoE) improving from 19.8% in FY14 to
26.4% in FY16E. We expect TVSL to be net cash by FY16E driven by strong FCF.
Stock trades at 10.9x/8.8x FY15E/16E EPS of INR8.4/10.5 respectively. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR126 (12x FY16E EPS).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Chirag Jain
(Chirag.Jain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5418
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

TVS Motor Company
Robust scooter and 3W growth drives 23% growth in net sales
Net sales grew by 23.3% YoY (+4.8% QoQ) to INR21.6b (est INR21.7b) driven by
volume growth of 10% YoY (+8% QoQ) to 560,801 units.
Volume growth as driven by strong growth in scooters and 3Ws with 38% and
55% growth respectively.
Recently launched Jupiter scooter has received encouraging response and has
been the key driver of scooter volume growth.
Exports revenue for 4Q stood at INR4.5b, contributing 20% of revenues.
Net sales growth driven by strong growth in 2W segment
Net sales (INR b)
10.1
Growth (%)
16.1
5.9
1.3
6.8
14.4
(14.0)
(4.8)
23.3
Volume growth flat due to decline in mopeds
Volumes ('000 units)
Growth (%)
4.2
(3.2)
(2.1)
(19.6)
(4.1)
(4.8)
0.2
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Operating leverage drives expansion in EBITDA margins
TVSL product mix continues to improve in favour of scooters led by encouraging
response of Jupiter. Share of Mopeds have also risen sequentially driven by
recovery in southern region and robust growth in non-south markets.
Despite factoring loss on excise duty of ~70bp, EBITDA margin increased by 40bp
QoQ (+110bp YoY) to 6.4% (v/s est of 5.3%).
TVSL compensated INR110m to its dealers for loss incurred on excise duty
reduction. The same has been routed through net sales.
RM cost increased by 60bp YoY & QoQ to 71.6%, while employee cost reduced
by 30bp QoQ (+40bp YoY) to 5.7%.
Other expenditure declined by 70bp QoQ (-200bp YoY), led by increase in
volumes.
PBT (before EO) grew by 60% YoY (+8.3% QoQ) to INR1b (est INR834m) driven
by healthy improvement in EBITDA margins.
EBITDA registers strong growth of 48% YoY
EBITDA (INR m)
EBITDA margin (%)
6.4
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.4
5.6
5.9
6.0
Volume mix shifting in favour of scooters led by Jupiter (%)
Motorcycles
1.7
39.3
21.7
37.2
2.5
37.8
24.5
35.2
Scooters
2.6
37.5
21.6
38.3
2.8
41.2
19.2
36.8
Mopeds
3.5
36.7
20.7
39.1
4.3
32.8
23.0
39.9
Three-wheelers
3.9
33.4
23.9
38.8
3.9
37.0
24.1
35.0
Source: Company, MOSL
29 April 2014
Source: Company, MOSL
2

TVS Motor Company
Interest cost rises on low base due to adverse Fx
Interest exp (INR m)
2.0
3.3
(15.1)
155
152
118
Growth (%)
50.0
83
65
53
56
(57.8)
(58.2)
(54.9)
52 (65.7)
Robust PAT growth on strong operating performance
PAT
Growth (%)
31.2
(13.1)
(7.2)
1.6
1.5
29.6
41.4
(40.9)
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Management commentary on results
Industry growth outlook of 8-10%:
TVSL expects FY15 2W industry growth of 8-
10%. Growth would be largely back-ended in nature.
Expects market share to improve led by new launches:
TVSL with the benefit of
new launches and continued growth in scooters, plans to outperform industry.
Management expects to improve its domestic 2W share from 12% currently to
14-14.5%.
Scooters perform strongly:
Jupiter scooter continues to perform strongly. TVSL
has increased the capacity of Wego and Jupiter from 25k units/m to 45k
units/m.
Two new launches in 1QFY15:
Plans to launch all-new Star City plus (110cc
motorcycle) and Scooty Zest (110cc variant) in 1QFY15,
Victor re-launch during 2HFY15:
TVSL plans to re-launch its popular Victor
(110cc motorcycle) during 2HFY15
BMW tie-up on track:
TVSL along with BMW would launch their first joint
product during 2HCY15
Indonesia business sold 19k units in FY14:
As per the management, TVSL
recently launched Skubek product in Indonesia called as Dazz has received
encouraging response. TVSL has sold 19k units in Indonesian operations (flat
YoY) during FY14, of which 10k units were exports.
Investment INR1.25b in key subsidiaries during FY14:
During 4QFY14, TVSL
invested INR240m in Indonesia with total investment at INR500m for FY14.
Investments in TVS Credit Services (finance arm) during FY14 stood at INR750m.
Capex guidance
increased to INR2.5b v/s 2b earlier for FY15 (flat YoY).
Momentum in exports to remain healthy in FY15:
growth supported by all
major markets. While TVSL has entered majority of the big markets in exports,
growth in FY15 and beyond would be driven by market expansion and market
share gains.
Standalone interest bearing debt
stood at INR 1.38b, while non-interest bearing
debt was at INR4b, amounting to a total gross debt of INR5.4b. Cash stood at
INR800m.
TVSL declared a second interim dividend of INR0.75/share, taking the total
dividend for the year to INR1.40/share (v/s 1.2 in FY13).
3
29 April 2014

TVS Motor Company
Upgrade FY15E/16E EPS by 7.3%/5% on superior margin performance
We upgrade our margin estimate for FY15/16 from 6.4%/6.8% to 6.9%/7.2%
driven by superior margin performance delivered during 4QFY14.
Consequently, we upgrade our FY15E/16E EPS by 7.3%/5% partially offset by
higher depreciation charges on increased capex guidance.
Valuation and view
TVSL is well positioned to benefit from the scooterization wave with its
complete scooter portfolio. Over the next 12-18 months, TVSL plans to launch
multiple products across segments to reinforce and fill gaps in portfolio.
Expect earnings CAGR of 38% with return ratios (RoE) improving from 19.8% in
FY14E to 26.4% in FY16E. We expect TVS to be net-cash by FY16E driven by
strong FCF.
TVSL trades at 10.9x/8.8x FY15E/16E EPS of INR8.4/10.5 respectively. Maintain
Buy
with target price of INR126 (12x FY16E EPS)
Revised Forecast (Standalone)
(INR M)
Volumes (units)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
Rev
2,387,851
95,675
6,585
4,006
8.4
FY15E
Old
2,385,018
95,670
6,075
3,734
7.9
Chg (%)
0.1
0.0
8.4
7.3
7.3
Rev
2,656,134
109,657
7,931
4,971
10.5
FY16E
Old
Chg (%)
2,653,538
0.1
109,723
-0.1
7,428
6.8
4,735
5.0
10.0
5.0
Source: Company, MOSL
29 April 2014
4

TVS Motor Company
TVS Motor| Story in Charts: Robust 38% EPS CAGR over FY14-16E
Expect volume CAGR of 13.2% over FY14-16E
Volumes (units)
Growth (%)
15.2
8.2
13.6
2.4
11.2
12.7
20.2
14.6
Strong 17.4% CAGR in revenues led by volume growth
Net sales (INR m)
Growth (%)
-7.5
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY12
-1.1
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Higher volumes and better mix to drive margins
EBITDA (INR m)
6.6
5.8
6.0
EBITDA margin (%)
6.9
7.2
Higher PAT growth with better margins, lower interest cost
PAT (INR m)
44.4
26.3
Growth (%)
53.3
24.1
1,810
2,491
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY12
FY13
(27.3) 2,614
FY14
4,006
FY15E
4,971
FY16E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
FCF to remain strong despite high capex plans
CFO (INR m)
Capex (INR m)
6,529
4,440
2,672 3,3032,536
-767
-1,768
FY12
FY13
-2,579
FY14
-2,400
FY15E
3,950 4,199
1,799
FCF (INR m)
9,306
6,856
High FCF to transform into net cash company by FY16E
Net debt (INR m)
571
480
3,933
4,325
8,181
-2,450
FY16E
FY12
FY13
FY14
6,170
190
254
FY15E
180
-100
FY16E
Interest cost (INR m)
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
29 April 2014
5

TVS Motor Company
TVS Motor Company
Company description
TVS Motor Company is 4 largest two-wheeler company
in India. TVS Motor Company is the flagship company of
the 100 year old six billion USD TVS Group, which has
some 40 companies and holdings in the automotive
sector. TVS Motor Company offers the widest range of
product in the Indian two and three wheeler industry.
TVS Motor Company has international presence in more
than 50 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
th
Recent developments
Management expects a 8-10% industry growth in
FY15, largely back-ended.
Source: Company, MOSL
Plans to launch all-new Star City plus (110cc
motorcycle) and Scooty Zest (110cc variant) in
1QFY15,
TVSL declared a second interim dividend of
INR0.75/share, taking the total dividend for the year
to INR1.40/share (v/s 1.2 in FY13).
Key investment arguments
Valuation and view
TVSL is well positioned to benefit from the
scooterization wave with its complete scooter
portfolio. Over the next 12-18 months, TVSL plans
to launch multiple products across segments to
reinforce and fill gaps in portfolio.
Expect earnings CAGR of 38% with return ratios
(RoE) improving from 19.8% in FY14E to 26.4% in
FY16E. We expect TVS to be net-cash by FY16E
driven by strong FCF.
TVSL trades at 10.9x/8.8x FY15E/16E EPS of
INR8.4/10.4 respectively.
Maintain
Buy
with target price of INR126 (12x
FY16E EPS)
Sector view
Key investments risks
Increasing competitiveness in two-wheeler industry
could restrict pricing power.
Economic and political risk in key export markets
Long term demand drivers in place, driven by
increasing penetration in rural markets and
replacement demand from urban markets
2W export provides huge opportunity, with ~2x
India opportunity in the markets similar to India.
Industry dynamics favorable, with focus on
profitability rather than market share.
Comparative valuations
TVSL
P/E (x)
EPS Gr (%)
RoE (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
10.9
8.8
53.3
24.1
25.6
26.1
7.3
5.5
HMCL
15.3
12.4
33.8
23.9
44.2
44.2
10.3
8.5
Bajaj
14.9
12.8
14.4
16.9
36.3
35.6
9.4
7.6
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL
Forecast
FY15
FY16
8.4
10.5
Consensus
Forecast
6.4
7.8
Variation
(%)
30.4
34.8
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
92
Target
Price (INR)
126
Upside
(%)
37.0
Reco
Buy
Shareholding pattern (%)
Mar-14
Promoter
Domestic Inst
Foreign
Others
57.4
16.9
5.8
20.0
Dec-13
57.4
17.7
3.7
21.2
Mar-13
57.4
18.2
2.2
22.2
Stock performance (1-year)
29 April 2014
6

TVS Motor Company
Financials and valuation
Income statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Extraordinary items
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
2013
70,650
-1.1
4,090
5.8
1,304
2,786
480
246
916
1,636
476
29.1
1,160
1,810
-27.3
2014
79,619
12.7
4,781
6.0
1,317
3,465
254
302
2
3,510
899
25.6
2,612
2,614
44.4
(INR Million)
2015E
2016E
95,675 109,657
20.2
14.6
6,585
7,931
6.9
7.2
1,391
1,495
5,193
6,436
190
180
339
373
0
0
5,342
6,628
1,335
1,657
25.0
25.0
4,006
4,971
4,006
4,971
53.3
24.1
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price / Book Value
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Leverage Ratios (%)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
2013
3.8
6.6
25.8
1.2
56.5
24.2
14.1
3.6
0.7
12.2
1.3
15.1
15.7
3.6
14.2
26.3
61.1
0.5
2014
5.5
8.3
29.8
1.4
29.8
16.8
11.2
3.1
0.6
10.0
1.5
19.8
20.1
3.9
14.1
25.1
48.7
0.3
2015E
8.4
11.4
36.1
1.8
25.0
10.9
8.1
2.6
0.5
7.3
2.0
25.6
27.1
4.1
12.3
21.5
52.1
0.3
2016E
10.5
13.6
43.9
2.3
25.2
8.8
6.8
2.1
0.4
5.5
2.4
26.1
28.9
4.2
10.5
18.0
55.4
0.2
Balance sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
2013
475
11,772
12,247
6,345
931
19,523
22,479
12,365
10,115
361
8,688
12,029
5,097
3,005
175
3,752
11,670
11,136
534
359
19,523
2014
475
13,678
14,153
4,759
1,247
20,159
25,058
13,681
11,377
361
8,959
14,950
5,482
3,341
826
5,302
15,489
9,989
5,500
-539
20,159
(INR Million)
2015E
2016E
475
475
16,683 20,404
17,159 20,879
4,759
4,259
1,247
1,247
23,165 26,385
27,558 30,058
15,072 16,567
12,486 13,491
261
211
9,959 10,959
14,686 19,013
5,643
5,395
3,491
3,400
434
4,359
5,118
5,859
14,227 17,289
12,727 15,431
1,500
1,858
458
1,724
23,165 26,385
E: MOSL Estimates
Cash flow statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Others
Interest
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg Cap
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invt
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
2013
1,628
1,076
0
327
527
800
4,181
-767
-295
77
-985
0
-276
-517
-715
-1,509
1,688
-2,077
-389
2014
3,513
1,317
0
254
899
2,344
6,227
-2,579
-271
302
-2,548
0
-1,586
-254
-778
-2,618
1,061
175
1,235
(INR Million)
2015E
5,342
1,391
0
190
1,335
-1,389
3,861
-2,400
-1,000
339
-3,061
0
0
-190
-1,001
-1,191
-392
1,233
841
2016E
6,628
1,495
0
180
1,657
2,659
8,933
-2,450
-1,000
373
-3,077
0
-500
-180
-1,251
-1,931
3,925
841
4,766
29 April 2014
7

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TVS Motor Company
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Disclosure of Interest Statement
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2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock
3. Broking relationship with company covered
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered
TVS MOTOR CO LTD
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
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29 April 2014
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