24 July 2014
2QCY14 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Ambuja Cements
BSE SENSEX
26,272
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
7,831
ACEM IN
1,548.0
244/148
-5/9/-17
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
31.5
2.4
13.0
22.8
2.2
9.1
16.9
2.1
5.9
2014E 2015E 2016E
102.8 120.9 141.2
19.8
13.7
6.9
2.4
92.7
9.8
14.3
65.0
27.7
18.9
9.6
37.9
10.1
14.8
52.6
36.5
25.6
12.9
35.2
12.8
18.6
43.2
CMP: INR218
TP: INR235
Neutral
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 337.9/5.6
97.2 104.6
Volume growth and realizations beat estimates:
ACEM’s 2QCY14 net sales grew
by 15.4% YoY (+3% QoQ) to INR27.1b (v/s est of INR25.1b). Both dispatch volume
and realizations surprised positively. Cement volume stood at 5.84mt (v/s est
5.6mt), +7.1% YoY (-4% QoQ), and realizations of INR4,631/ton (v/s est of
INR4,456/ton), +6.4% QoQ (+7.8%YoY).
EBITDA/ton at INR982 (7% beat), despite cost push:
EBITDA grew 17% YoY (flat
QoQ) to ~INR5.7b (v/s est ~IN5.2b), translating into margin of 21.2% (+0.6pp
QoQ). EBITDA/ton stood at ~INR982 (v/s est ~INR920), up INR81/ton YoY
(+INR33/ton QoQ). Cost push negatively surprised with 7.2% QoQ increase driven
by (1) higher freight cost, (2) higher other expenses (ad expense and repair cost
led )and (3) higher employee costs. As a result, PAT stood at INR4.1b (v/s est of
INR3.8b), a growth of ~26% YoY. (-9% QOQ). Board has approved payment of
interim dividend of INR1.8/share.
Capacity addition at Marwa Mundwa deferred:
ACEM is yet to commence work
for capacity addition of 4.5mt at Marwa Mundwa, Rajasthan. It would finalize
timeline, as it gets more clarity on scheme of global merger between Holcim and
Lafarge and its implication in India.
Outlook:
Although macro-economic condition remains challenging, construction
activity is expected to pick up pace considering favorable announcement in the
Union Budget for infrastructure & housing.
Revising estimates, maintain Neutral:
We are revising EPS for CY14/CY15 by -
0.5%/+6% to INR6.9/9.6 respectively, to factor in for (1) higher volume growth at
5.5%/8% for CY14/15 (v/s 3.5%/6%), (2) increasing realizations by INR75/ton to
factor in for 2QCY14 beat, and (3) higher tax. ACEM trades at an 9.1x CY15E
EV/EBITDA and USD141/ton (on fully diluted equity and excluding synergies).
Maintain
Neutral
with target price of INR235 (at ~USD160/ton).
(INR Million)
Quarterly Performance
Y/E December
Sa l es Vol ume (m ton)*
YoY Cha nge (%)
Rea l i za ti on (INR/ton)
YoY Cha nge (%)
QoQ Cha nge (%)
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT before EO Item
Extra ordi na ry Inc/(Exp)
PBT after EO Exp/(Inc)
Ta x
Ra te (%)
Reported Profit
Adj PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
1Q
5.96
-3.6
4,271
0.3
-0.5
25,448
-3.3
5,118
20.1
1,204
132
1,339
5,121
1,741
6,862
1,983
28.9
4,879
3,641
-28.3
CY13
2Q
3Q
4Q
5.46
4.89
5.29
-3.1
2.0
-1.8
4,297 4,103 4,142
-5.7
-9.2
-3.5
0.6
-4.5
0.9
23,457 20,049 21,913
-8.6
-7.4
-5.3
4,920 2,554 2,890
21.0
12.7
13.2
1,223 1,246 1,228
171
178
169
1,051
940 1,019
4,578 2,070 2,512
0
481 1,046
4,578 2,551 3,558
1,336
891
393
29.2
34.9
11.0
3,242 1,660 3,165
3,242 1,346 2,234
-30.9
-60.1
-2.8
1Q
6.06
1.7
4,352
1.9
5.1
26,378
3.7
5,757
21.8
1,197
161
1,434
5,832
948
6,780
1,579
23.3
5,200
4,473
22.9
CY14
2Q
3QE
4QE
5.84
5.18
5.70
7.1
6.0
7.8
4,631 4,431 4,631
7.8
8.0
11.8
6.4
-4.3
4.5
27,064 22,949 26,414
15.4
14.5
20.5
5,741 3,391 4,953
21.2
14.8
18.8
1,242 1,275 1,308
203
200
188
1,518 1,100 1,198
5,815 3,016 4,655
0
0
0
5,815 3,016 4,655
1,728
890 1,403
29.7
29.5
30.1
4,087 2,126 3,252
4,087 2,126 3,252
26.1
57.9
45.5
CY13
21.60
-1.8
4,207
-4.4
90,868
46.1
15,482
17.0
4,901
651
4,349
14,280
3,269
17,549
4,603
26.2
12,946
10,464
-32.2
CY14E
22.79
5.5
4,511
7.2
102,805
45.3
19,841
19.3
5,022
752
5,250
19,317
948
20,265
5,600
27.6
14,665
13,717
31.1
Est.
2QE
5.6
3.0
4,456
3.7
1.8
25,053
6.8
5,172
20.6
1,225
160
1,175
4,962
0
4,962
1,191
24.0
3,771
3,771
16.3
Var.
(%)
3.9
135.1
4
110.6
250.4
8
126.0
11
2.7
1
27
29
17
17
45
23.8
8
8
59.6
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

Ambuja Cements
Volume growth and realizations beat estimates
ACEM’s 2QCY14 net sales grew by 15.4% YoY (+3% QoQ) to INR27.1b (beats est
of INR25.1b). Both dispatch volume and realizations surprised positively.
Cement volume stood at 5.84mt (v/s est 5.6mt), +7.1% YoY (-4% QoQ), and
realizations of INR4,631/ton (v/s est of INR4,456/ton), +6.4% QoQ (+7.8%YoY).
Cost push partially negated realization uptick; EBITDA/ton at INR982 (7%
beat on estimates)
EBITDA grew 17% YoY (flat QoQ) to ~INR5.7b (v/s est ~IN5.2b), translating into
EBITDA margin of 21.2% (+0.6pp QoQ) v/s est of 20.6%. EBITDA/ton stood at
~INR982 (v/s est ~INR920), up INR81/ton YoY (+INR33/ton QoQ).
Cost push negatively surprised with 7.2% QoQ increase driven by (1) higher
freight cost pertaining to northern plants operations, (2) higher other expenses
led by INR360m of ad expense (v/s INR100m in 1QCY14) and repair cost of
INR1.25b (v/s INR0.96b in 1QCY14) and (3) higher employee costs.
However rise in realizations was sufficient to pass on cost inflation, leading to
net improvement in EBITDA/ton sequentially.
Trend in Profitability
EBITDA (INR m)
26.9
16.1
18.5
28.4
28.226.2
18.5 20.1 21.0
EBITDA Margin (%)
21.8 21.2
12.7 13.2
Volumes and realizations surprised positively
Volume (MT)
Net Realization (INR/ton)
5.3 4.8 5.7 6.2 5.6 4.8 5.4 6.0 5.5 4.9 5.3 6.1 5.8
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
EBITDA/ton beat, as ACEM largely passed on cost push
EBITDA (INR/Ton)
Source: Company, MOSL
24 July 2014
2

Ambuja Cements
Income statement (INR/ton)
2QCY14
Net Realization
Raw Material
Staff Cost
Power & Fuel
Freight
Other exp
Total Cost
EBITDA
4,631
298
241
1,068
1,181
861
3,649
982
2QCY13
4,297
189
242
1,018
1,125
822
3,396
901
YoY (%)
7.8
58.0
-0.4
4.9
5.0
4.7
7.5
1QCY14
4,352
433
213
954
1,088
714
3,402
QoQ (%)
6.4
-31.1
13.1
11.9
8.6
20.5
7.2
950
3.4
Source: Company, MOSL
Higher tax restrict PAT, other income up on treasury profit booking
Reported PAT stood at INR4.1b (v/s est of INR3.8b).
Other income was higher on account of profit booking with shift in treasury
investment from growth to dividend model.
Nonetheless, higher tax (29.5% v/s est of 24%) limit PAT growth to 26% YoY (-9%
QOQ)
No major capacity addition in foreseeable future
In the context of global merger between Holcim and Lafarge, ACEM has been re-
visiting capex plan especially of 4.5mt Greenfield capacity addition at Marwa
Munda (Rajasthan).
It has guided for INR8b in FY15. Grinding units in Rabriawas (0.8mt) and Sainkrail
(0.8mt) are the only expansion currently underway.
Board has declared interim dividend of INR1.8/share.
Outlook
Although macro-economic condition remains challenging, construction activity is
expected to pick up pace considering favorable announcement in the Union
Budget for infrastructure & housing.
The company continues to work on improving efficiencies and focus on
customer and commercial excellence. The company believes that these
initiatives will help to preserve and also improve performance.
Revising CY14/15 EPS by -0.5%/+6%
We are revising EPS for CY14/CY15 by -0.5%/+6% to INR6.9/9.6 respectively, to
factor in for:
Higher volume growth at 5.5%/8% for CY14/15 (v/s 3.5%/6% respectively).
Increasing realizations by INR75/ton to factor in for 2QCY14 beat, implying
~INR300/INR400 per ton increase in realizations in CY14/CY15 (v/s earlier
~INR230/ton in CY14).
Higher tax rate.
We are assuming cash payout for acquisition of ACC’s stake by end 4QCY14. We
are yet to consolidate our estimates for ACC. We adjust ACEM’s EV for pro-rata
fair value of ACC (based on our TP).
24 July 2014
3

Ambuja Cements
Revised Estimates
(INR b)
Volumes (MT)
Realizations (INR/Ton)
Net Sales
EBITDA (INR/Ton)
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
Rev
22.8
4,511
102.8
871
13.7
6.9
CY14E
Old
22.4
4,437
99.2
836
13.8
7.0
Chg (%)
1.9
1.7
3.6
4.1
-0.5
-0.5
Rev
24.6
4,911
120.9
1,126
18.9
9.6
CY15E
Old
23.7
4,837
114.6
1,088
17.9
9.0
Chg (%)
3.9
1.5
5.5
3.5
5.8
5.8
Source:MOSL
Valuations and view
Ambuja Cement offers favourable market mix (negligible exposure to weak
southern market), well diversified fuel mix and efficient operations, translating
into above average profitability.
Management expects to derive upto INR9b of synergy benefits (8-10% cost
savings) over the next 2-3 years. We are yet to factor in resultant synergies in
our estimates, which in our view may lead to 10-16% EPS accretion over CY14-
15.
The stock trades at an EV of 9.1x CY15E EBITDA and USD141/ton (on fully
diluted equity and excluding synergies). We value ACEM with target price of
INR235 (at ~USD160/ton or implied EV/EBITDA 10.6x CY15E EV/EBITDA,
including synergy benefits on fully diluted equity). Maintain
Neutral.
24 July 2014
4

Ambuja Cements
Story in Charts
Near-term expansion visibility limited
Capacity (MT)
95
18
19
75
25
19
81
25
20
78
28
21
79
28
22
75
29
22
77
30
23
83
30
25
Dispatches (MT)
Cap. Util (%)
28.4
87
30
27
17.6
18.7
18.2
19.4
26.4
24.7
Trend in profitability
EBITDA
22.8
25.5
17.0
19.3
Margin (%)
22.9
25.8
24.7
15.5
19.8
27.7
36.5
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
EBITDA/ton has upside potential from synergies
EBITDA/ton
EBITDA margin (%)
37 36
32
28
27
27 27
26 25
23
Synergies (INR/ton)
Trend in EPS
EPS (Rs)
10.0
EPS Growth (%)
9.6
37.9
2.4
-32.4
CY12
CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E
35.2
12.9
26
35
81 150
23 26
7.6
7.8
8.1
8.2
6.9
6.8
22.4
17 19
2.1
-11.2
CY08
CY09
4.3
0.6
CY10
CY11
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Trend in return ratios
22.2
19.4
17.9
S/A RoE
16.2
18.1
11.4
12.8
16.2
Consol RoE
B/S strength to address cash outgo on merger
CFO (Rs mn)
12
CAPEX (Rs mn)
14
9
7
21
14
9
21
9
10
26
15
33
13
FCF (Rs mn)
16
18
9.8
9.3
10.1
12.4
9
17
-3
12
13
22
11
8
19
17
6
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13 CY14E CY15E CY16E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
24 July 2014
5

Ambuja Cements
Ambuja Cements: an investment profile
Company description
Ambuja Cement, a part of the Holcim group, is the third
largest cement company in India with total capacity of
28.8mt under its control. It is one of the lowest cost
producers of cement, with focus on structurally sound
markets of North, West and East. It is also the largest
exporter of cement from India.
Recent developments
Board has approved payment of interim dividend of
INR1.8/share.
Valuation and view
Key investment arguments
Best positioned geographically (#1 and #2 in North
and West, respectively) to benefit from current
upturn in cement prices.
Geographical location gives flexibility to choose
between domestic and export market.
Financially well placed (zero net debt) to drive
further consolidation in the industry.
We are revising EPS for CY14/CY15 by -0.5%/+6% to
INR6.9/9.6 respectively, to factor in for (1) higher
volume growth at 5.5%/8% for CY14/15 (v/s 3.5%/6%
respectively), (2) increasing realizations by INR75/ton
to factor in for 2QCY14 beat, and (3) higher tax
The stock trades at an EV of 9.1x CY15E EBITDA and
USD141/ton (on fully diluted equity and excluding
synergies). We value ACEM with target price of
INR235 (at ~USD160/ton or implied EV/EBITDA 10.6x
CY15E EV/EBITDA, including synergy benefits on fully
diluted equity). Maintain Neutral.
Key investment risks
Weakening of balance sheet strength on INR35b of
cash outgo in Holcim India merger.
Holding company discount the company is expected
to get on ACC stake.
Lack of timely capacity addition could restrict
volume growth, if volume recovery is sharp.
Levy of royalty by Holcim over and above the
payment of technical services fees.
Sector view
Demand and pricing environment may deteriorate in
monsoon but expected to revive in 2HFY15.
Stable government and focus on infrastructure
should drive demand and pricing recovery
Structural increase in cost base (both capex and
opex) would necessitate higher cement prices.
Comparative valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/Ton (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY14E
CY15E
CY14E
CY15E
CY14E
CY15E
CY14E
CY15E
GACL
31.5
22.8
2.4
2.2
145
141
13.0
9.1
ACC
29.5
18.4
3.4
3.2
125
127
17.1
10.8
UTCE
28.3
25.9
5.3
4.5
224
209
16.6
14.4
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL
Forecast
6.9
9.6
Consensus
Forecast
8.6
10.4
Variation
(%)
-19.3
-7.9
CY14
CY15
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
218
Target
Price (INR)
235
Upside
(%)
7.5
Reco
Neutral
Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-14
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
50.4
9.2
32.6
7.8
Mar-14
50.5
9.4
32.2
8.0
Jun-13
50.6
10.2
31.0
8.3
Stock performance (1-year)
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
24 July 2014
6

Ambuja Cements
Financials and valuation
24 July 2014
7

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24 July 2014
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