India Politics | 16 October 2014
India Politics
Please refer to our India MODI-fied
Vol 4 note titled “Make in India”
dated 27 September 2014
Exit polls indicate BJP lead in Assembly Elections
Maharashtra single largest party, very close to absolute majority in Haryana
Exit polls indicate clear lead for BJP:
Exit polls in recently concluded state
elections show BJP consolidating its grip at the state level. BJP is slated to get
absolute majority in Haryana and emerge as a very dominant single largest party
in Maharashtra.
Chanakya predicts sweep for BJP in both:
Incidentally, Today’s Chanakya
forecast agency that had successfully predicted both the 2014 General Elections
and also the emergence of AAP in Delhi elections, has predicted clear majority
for BJP in both the states.
Exit and opinion polls accurate in State elections:
Past track record suggests
that exit and opinion polls usually predict the state assembly elections
accurately even as their record is chequered at the national level.
Opinion and exit polls predict BJP as single largest party but
short of absolute majority in Maharashtra
BJP
41
13
62
82
44
46
2009
Exit polls
Opinion polls
136
Shiv Sena
Congress
7
7
33
37
68
NCP
MNS
19
10
30
36
57
136
Others
Exit polls predict close to absolute majority for BJP in
Haryana, to do better than opinion polls
BJP
9
31
INLD
Congress
3
4
12
27
HJC
Others
4
6
17
28
35
Opinion polls
40
6
4
2009
45
Exit polls
Note: Opinion and exit polls are average of the polling
agencies; Source: Media, MOSL
Note: Opinion and exit polls are average of the polling agencies;
Source: Media, MOSL
Higher than average voter turnout in Maharashtra
1990
70
1995
1999
2004
2009
2014
One of the highest voter turnout in Haryana
1991
1996
2000
2005
2009
2014
76
72
72
63
61
58
60
64
64
68
69
1990
1995
1999
2004
2009
2014
1991
1996
2000
2005
2009
2014
Source: Media, MOSL
Source: Media, MOSL
Ashish Gupta
(Ashish.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5544
Dipankar Mitra
(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825405
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

India Politics
Results hold significant consequence
While we would await declaration of results on October 19
th
, the trend is of
significant consequence.
First, it would re-establish political rating of Narendra Modi who campaigned
extensively for these state elections and the BJP for repeating the success of
national election.
Second, it would imply a quick recovery of BJP from the defeat of Bye-polls and
a success of a strategy that relied back on issues of governance and
development away from the sectarian appeal adopted in Bye-polls.
Third, as the Maharashtra elections show, going solo has been a winning
strategy that helped them emerge out of the shadow of a regionally dominant
party and accommodate electoral ambitions of internal cadres fully. In Haryana
the rise from a relatively smaller presence to the dominant party imply that
strength of BJP at the current juncture to upscale its presence relatively fast.
Fourth, strong anti-incumbency against Congress has cost them two critical
states further marginalizing their position both in these states as well as at the
national scene.
Fifth, the events to unfold might have far reaching consequence for the shape of
coalition politics and centre-state relations which would be revealed in greater
detail once the final results are declared.
Finally political consolidation of Modi/BJP would provide the ruling dispensation
at the centre necessary political capital to tread the path of economic agenda
more decisively and accelerate the reform process.
16 October 2014
2

India Politics
Annex I Details of Maharashtra State Assembly Elections
Exit polls: BJP to emerge as single-largest majority in Maharashtra
Parties
BJP
Shiv Sena
Congress
NCP
MNS
Others
Total
2009
46
44
82
62
13
41
288
Avg exit poll
136
68
37
33
7
7
288
Swing
90
24
-45
-29
-6
-34
0
C Voter
129
56
43
36
12
12
288
ABP News
Nielsen
127
77
40
34
5
5
288
Todays
Chanakya
151
71
27
28
11
288
Opinion polls: Most polls indicated hung assembly with BJP a few seats short of absolute
majority
Parties
BJP
Shiv Sena
Congress
NCP
MNS
Others
Total
Average
136
57
36
30
10
19
288
India Today-Cicero
(Oct 9 '14)
Seats
133
57
30
33
10
25
288
Vote (%)
30
19
14
14
5
18
100
ABP News- India TV C
Hansa Research-The
Nielsen (Oct Voter (Oct
Week (Oct 9 '14)
10 '14)
11 '14)
Seats
154
47
25
17
10
35
288
Vote (%)
37
17
12
6
5
23
100
Seats
120
67
46
36
8
11
288
Seats
137
55
43
36
11
6
288
Past Assemblies trend: The pattern of stable seat share of four major parties in
Maharashtra seem to be broken with far higher seats for BJP
Parties
BJP
SHS
INC
NCP
MNS
Others
Total
1990
42
52
141
1995
65
73
80
1999
56
69
75
58
30
288
2004
54
62
69
71
32
288
2009
46
44
82
62
13
41
288
53
288
70
288
16 October 2014
3

India Politics
Annex II Details of Haryana State Assembly Elections
Exit polls: BJP likely to form government in Haryana on its own strength
Parties
BJP
INLD
Congress
HJC
Others
Total
2009
4
6
40
31
9
90
Average
45
27
12
4
3
90
Swing
41
21
-28
-27
-7
0
C Voter
37
28
15
6
4
90
ABP News Nielsen Todays Chanakya
46
52
29
23
10
10
2
5
3
90
90
Opinion polls: Predicted a more moderate tally of BJP, though still single largest
Parties
BJP
Congress
INLD
HJC
Others
Average
35
17
28
6
4
90
India TV-Cvoter
Seats
34
16
27
9
4
90
(Oct 12'14)
Vote (%)
33
21
28
10
8
100
Total TV News (Oct 12'
14)
Seats
35
18
29
3
5
90
Past Assemblies trend: Haryana political landscape to vastly alter with BJP increasing its
tally dramatically from the smaller presence of the past
Parties
BJP
INC
HJC
INLD
Others
Total
1991
2
51
1996
9
2000
6
21
47
16
90
2005
2
67
9
12
90
2009
4
40
6
31
9
90
37
90
81
90
16 October 2014
4

India Politics
Exit polls have fared better during recent Assembly elections
The exit polls however, have been a fairly accurate predictor during Assembly
elections.
For most occasions during the last two years of state elections, exit polls have at
least been directionally correct although they underestimated the magnitude of
swing.
The rise of AAP in Delhi, however, were nearly unpredicted.
The above experience suggests while exit polls have failed to detect the
emergence of a new phenomenon, if there is a dominant mood swing in a state
level context, exit polls by and large predicted the change accurately.
Karnataka: Fairly accurate
Avg Exit polls
120 122
Actual seats
Exit polls have fared much better for Assembly elections
Uttar Pradesh: Direction correct but not the extent
Avg Exit polls
224
170
98
70
47
51
28
SP
BSP
Actual seats
80
15 24
Others
47
40
30
40
14
6
13 16
Others
BJP
Congress
BJP
Congress
JD(S)
KJP
Chhattisgarh: Spot on
Avg Exit polls
48
49
38
39
Actual seats
Delhi: Could not predict the AAP surge
Avg Exit polls
35
31
Actual seats
28
18
8
16
3
4
BJP
Congress
2
BJP
Congress
AAP
2
Others
Others
Madhya Pradesh: Fairly accurate
Avg Exit polls
165
141
77
Actual seats
Rajasthan: Direction correct not the extent of it
Avg Exit polls
163
126
Actual seats
58
12
7
BJP
55
21
Congress
19
16
BJP
Congress
Others
Others
Source: Media, MOSL
16
October
2014
5

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