21 November 2014
Update | Sector: Financials
Kotak Mahindra Bank
BSE Sensex
28,068
S&P CNX
8,402
CMP: INR1,157
TP: INR1,149
Neutral
Taking a big leap
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
KMB IN
771.4
1,164/631
16/15/-8
892.5
14.4
Opportunities galore; Integration is a key
The boards of Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) and ING Vysya Bank (VYSB) have approved
merger with swap ratio of 0.725:1 (KMB: VYSB). We believe these two banks
complement each other well in terms of branch presence, product offerings and
places KMB as a serious competition for the large private banks. Post merger, we
expect FY16E cons BV to increase by INR40 (up ~12%). RoE of the merged entity would
decline by ~100bp; however, after factoring in post-merger synergies, decline in RoE
would not be significant.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
NII
62.3 73.8 89.2
OP
42.3 50.8 62.8
NP
25.1 30.1 37.5
NP#
36.9 44.7 54.9
NIM (%)
4.2
4.1
4.0
EPS# (INR)
40.6 49.2 60.4
EPS Gr. (%)#
NA 21.2 22.8
BV. (INR)#
324.5 370.6 427.3
RoE - Std (%) 12.3 13.2 14.4
RoA - Std (%) 1.6
1.6
1.6
RoE - (%)#
13.3 14.2 15.1
Valuations
P/E. (X)#
28.5 23.5 19.2
P/ BV (X)#
3.6
3.1
2.7
# Consolidated post VYSB merger /
* Earnings for banking entity
unless stated
Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-14 Sep-14 Nov-14#
Promoter
DII
FII
40.3
1.8
35.3
40.1
2.0
34.7
34.0
19.1
33.6
Deal values VYSB at 2.0x trailing BV:
The deal values VYSB at ~INR150b
(INR790/share, +16% over 30D avg. share price) and will lead to ~18% equity
dilution for KMB. Merged entity will be the fourth largest private sector bank
with a loan book of INR1.2t and market share of 1.8% of loans. VYSB is valued at
0.2x deposits and INR268m/branch, one of the highest in private bank mergers.
Significant strategic benefits for KMB:
a) KMB, which has strong presence in
North and West regions (80% of KMB branches), will get deep inroads into the
southern region (64% of VYSB branches). b) KMB can utilize strong expertise of
VYSB in business banking (36% of loans, 9% for KMB) and LAP segment and also
get access to healthy CA float of VYSB, helped by cash mgmt and SME business
and c) continued access to ING global clients (ING will remain a large
shareholder (6.5%) in the bank and will have a board seat) and ING expertise in
digital banking role out and d) VYSB branch network can be better utilized for
consumer and auto loans penetration where KMB has strong expertise.
Pro-forma ROAs to moderate; significant scope for improvement:
KMB (std)
makes healthy ROA of ~1.9% whereas, VYSB makes ~1.1%. On a pro-forma
merged basis ROA would come down to ~1.6% however, merger synergies (low
hanging fruits for generating retail business from VYSB franchise) can be
significant in terms of improvement. KMB has INR1.85b and INR24.8m business
and profits per branch whereas, for VYSB it is INR1.38b and INR11.8m resp.
Key risks:
(a) Integration of workforce of VYSB with KMB especially old
employees linked to IBA payroll (~3K) (b) Overlapping of branches in some of
the key centers (c) Improving the VYSB branch productivity levels
Value-accretive deal:
Merger will be BV accretive by ~INR55 (32%) and ~INR42
(15%) for KMB at standalone and consolidated level. Merger places KMB in a
sweet spot for the next growth cycle with strong presence across geographies,
expertise in key product lines and continued healthy capitalization (CAR of
16.5%). KMB premium multiples are likely to sustain considering strong growth
in the coming years. While we are positive on the business, valuations at
3.1x/2.7x Cons BV (pro-forma merged nos.) of INR371/INR427 and 24x/19x
consolidate PE limit upside. As swap ratio is in place, VYSB is expected to track
KMB price performance. Our revised KMB SOTP target price comes to INR1,149.
(3.1x FY16 Cons. BV and 24x Consolidated earnings). Maintain
Neutral.
Others
22.6
23.2
13.3
# Post-merger with VYSB
*FII includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Sensex - Rebased
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Vallabh Kulkarni
(Vallabh.Kulkarni@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5430
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Exhibit 1: BV accretive merger; ROE dilution of ~100bp can be compensated by merger synergies
KMB - Std (BV)
Combined entity (BV)
change (%)
KMB - Std (EPS)
Combined entity (EPS)
change (%)
KMB - Std ROE
Combined entity ROE
FY15E
181.7
236.7
30.3
23.5
27.6
17.8
13.8
12.3
FY16E
208.7
266.9
27.9
28.4
33.1
16.7
14.5
13.2
FY17E
242.1
304.3
25.7
35.1
41.3
17.5
15.6
14.4
KMB - Consolidated (BV)
Combined entity (BV)
change (%)
KMB - Cons (EPS)
Combined entity (EPS)
change (%)
KMB - Cons ROE
Combined entity Cons ROE
FY15E
285.3
324.5
13.7
38.7
40.6
4.7
14.5
13.3
FY16E
331.2
370.6
11.9
47.3
49.2
3.9
15.4
14.2
FY17E
387.2
427.3
10.3
57.7
60.4
4.6
16.1
15.1
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 2: Shareholding of Mr. Uday kotak and ING in the combined entity to come down to 34% and 6.5% respectively
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 3: Geographical presence: KMB and VYSB complement each other very well
Source:
MOSL, Company
Exhibit 4: Combined entity will have branch network of 1,212 with presence in 29 states
Except for certain metro
locations, branch overlap
will be low
*ex-Maharashtra
Source: MOSL, Company
21 November 2014
2

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Exhibit 5: 68% of KMB’s branches in North/West India; 66% VYSB’s branches in South India
KMB
%
1.2
0.5
0.9
0.6
1.4
0.2
0.5
14.3
4.1
0.0
0.2
0.8
4.3
1.2
2.9
31.7
0.2
10.1
1.2
0.2
2.9
5.7
0.2
5.4
2.5
0.2
4.0
0.5
2.5
100
VYSB
100
1
2
3
4
1
3
16
8
2
1
2
123
24
3
49
0
25
7
1
33
5
0
38
69
0
22
3
15
560
%
17.9
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.2
0.5
2.9
1.4
0.4
0.2
0.4
22.0
4.3
0.5
8.8
0.0
4.5
1.3
0.2
5.9
0.9
0.0
6.8
12.3
0.0
3.9
0.5
2.7
100
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chandigarh
Chhattisgarh
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
NCT Of Delhi
Odisha
Puducherry
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Telangana
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
Total Branches
8
3
6
4
9
1
3
93
27
0
1
5
28
8
19
207
1
66
8
1
19
37
1
35
16
1
26
3
16
652
KMB+
VYSB
108
4
8
7
13
2
6
109
35
2
2
7
151
32
22
256
1
91
15
2
52
42
1
73
85
1
48
6
31
1212
%
8.9
0.3
0.7
0.6
1.1
0.2
0.5
9.0
2.9
0.2
0.2
0.6
12.5
2.6
1.8
21.1
0.1
7.5
1.2
0.2
4.3
3.5
0.1
6.0
7.0
0.1
4.0
0.5
2.6
100
KMB which has strong
presence in north and west
region (80% of branch
network) will get deep in
roads into southern region.
VYSB has 365 branches into
southern region which is
rd
2/3 of its network
Source: MOSL, RBI
Exhibit 6: Branch density complementary in Key Cities
Top 8 cities would
rd
contribute 1/3 of the
branch network of the
combined entity
Source: Company, MOSL
21 November 2014
3

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Exhibit 7: Branch market share of each entity in top 5 states of presence (%)
KMB
1.9
2.1
1.7
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.2
1.4
1.6
VYSB
Significant synergy benefits
possible for merged entity;
In top 6-7 states combined
entity will have ~2% market
share vs Pan India market
share of ~1%
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4 0.4
0.5 0.5
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 8: Funding mix is likely to remain stable in the combined entity
Source:
MOSL, Company
Exhibit 9: Complementarity to Drive Higher Customer Wallet Share
Source:
Company
21 November 2014
4

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Exhibit 10: KMB would look to leverage upon the expertise of VYSB in business banking and SME space
Source:
MOSL, Company
Value per branch is largely
similar to CBOP-HDFCB
merger however, PBV on
trailing basis one of the
lowest at 2x vs other deals
of 3-5x
Exhibit 11: VYSB valued at ~INR268m per branch and 0.2x deposit base
Value per
Acquirer
Deal value
Value/
Targe Bank
Year
Branches
branch
Bank
(INR b)
Deposit (x)
(INR m)
CBoP
HDFC Bank Oct-08
112.2
394
285
0.54
Sangli Bank
ICICI Bank
Apr-07
3.5
200
18
0.18
United Western BankIDBI Bank
Sep-06
3.5
229
15
0.05
Lord Krishna Bank CBoP
Aug-07
3.3
118
28
0.17
Bank of Rajasthan ICICI Bank
May-10
30.5
463
66
0.20
ING Vysya Bank
KMB
Nov-14
150
560
268
0.20
Source:
MOSL, Company
Exhibit 12: Operating performance per branch/employee significantly better for KMB
INR m
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Business/Employee
- KMB (A)
51
56
62
73
64
- VYSB (B)
71
76
64
75
77
A/B (x)
0.7
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.8
Business/Branch
- KMB (A)
1794
1825
2186
2277
1853
- VYSB (B)
921
1053
1204
1339
1383
A/B (x)
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.3
Profit/Branch
- KMB (A)
22.5
25.5
30.6
31.1
24.8
- VYSB (B)
5.0
6.2
8.6
11.2
11.8
A/B (x)
4.5
4.1
3.6
2.8
2.1
Profit/Employee
- KMB (A)
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.9
- VYSB (B)
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
A/B (x)
1.6
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.3
Opex/Branch
- KMB (A)
47.8
48.4
51.7
50.6
42.0
- VYSB (B)
16.8
20.1
20.9
23.3
26.8
A/B (x)
2.8
2.4
2.5
2.2
1.6
Opex/Employee
- KMB (A)
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.5
- VYSB (B)
1.3
1.5
1.1
1.3
1.5
A/B (x)
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.0
Source:
MOSL, Company
There is plenty of scope to
improve the efficiency of
VYSB’s existing branch
network
21 November 2014
5

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Exhibit 13: Higher share of retail (ex mortgages) leading to higher NIMs for KMB (%)
NIM (%)
5.4
5.8
KMB
6.3
5.2
4.6
4.3
2.6
2.9
3.1
4.0
3.1
4.6
VYSB
Combined entity
Lower NIMs of VYSB one of
the key reasons lower ROAs
vs KMB
4.3
3.4
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.1
3.3
4.6
4.1
3.3
4.7
4.2
3.4
4.6
4.1
3.3
4.6
4.0
3.2
2.7
2.4
*KMB Standalone
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 14: Gross NPA performance largely similar
GNPA (%)
3.0
2.5
3.3
KMB
VYSB
Combined entity
KMB has lower restructured
loans of 26bp whereas,
VYSB has 1.4%
2.2
2.6
2.7
1.9
3.0
2.4
2.2
2.3
1.7
2.0
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.8
1.3
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.0
0.5
*KMB Standalone
Source:
MOSL, Company
Exhibit 15: Cost to income ratio performance largely similar; reasons different
Cost to income ratio (%)
69
KMB
VYSB
Combined entity
Strong branch expansion
and higher retail business is
leading to high c/I ratio for
KMB whereas, productivity
issues drove high C/I ratio
for VYSB
66
66
62
60
67
65
65
67
56
51
48
57
62
59
55
56
53
52
51
57
53
50
55
54
53
53
51
51
54
53
52
52
*KMB Standalone
Source:
MOSL, Company
21 November 2014
6

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Exhibit 16: Return on Assets likely to decline - merger synergies a key (%)
Strong branch expansion
and higher retail business is
leading to high c/I ratio for
KMB whereas, productivity
issues drove high C/I ratio
for VYSB
RoA (%)
1.7
1.2
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.9
KMB
1.9
1.4
VYSB
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.8
1.5
Combined entity
1.9
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
*KMB Standalone
Source:
MOSL, Company
Exhibit 17: Improving productivity levels of VYSB a key to improve ROEs (%)
RoE (%)
14.6
13.6
12.7
12.8
11.5
11.9
8.2
9.7
7.0
11.6
12.5
13.8
KMB
15.4
15.0
13.4
15.4
15.3
14.3
VYSB
16.3
15.9
14.6
13.4
11.4
14.4
Combined entity
14.3
15.0
16.0
Marginal dilution in ROEs
for combined entity;
However merger benefits
will compensate for the
same
14.8
12.7
13.5
12.2
10.5
9.7
*KMB Standalone
Source:
MOSL, Company
Other highlights related to deal
21 November 2014
Post merger foreign shareholding will be 46.9% vs maximum permissible limit of
74%. FII shareholding (excluding ING group of 6.5%) will be 33.5% which is lower
than maximum permissible of ~40% for KMB as pre board resolution and RBI
notification dated 18th July 2014. There remains a confusion regarding
treatment of ING group shareholding and mgmt expects it to be considered as
FDI.
Overall foreign investment in combined entity will be 46.9% vs maximum
permissible limit of 74%
Combined customer base increases to ~10m (8m of KMB group and 2m of VYSB)
CEO designate Mr Uday Sareen will be inducted into Kotak’s top management.
He will report directly to Uday Kotak
Combined CAR (including 1H PAT) will remain healthy at ~16%. As of 1HFY15,
CAR of KMB group was 17.59% and VYSB was 14.59%
ING group is likely to get board sheet in combined entity
Post merger KMB will strong presence in the important geographies. Combined
entity will have 30%, 27% and 28% of the branch network in West, North and
South
Management expects to complete the merger process by end of March 2015.
In terms of technology, KMB runs on Finacle platform and VYSB is on FIS system
7

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Financials and valuations
(KMB – pre-merger)
21 November 2014
8

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Financials and valuations
(KMB – pre-merger)
21 November 2014
9

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Financials and valuations
(VYSB – pre-merger)
21 November 2014
10

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Financials and valuations
(VYSB – pre-merger)
21 November 2014
11

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Financials and valuations
(KMB+VYSB - proforma-merger)
21 November 2014
12

Kotak Mahindra Bank
Financials and valuations
(KMB+VYSB - proforma-merger)
21 November 2014
13

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