31 January 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
JSW Steel
BSE SENSEX
29,183
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR M) Vol ‘000
Free float
S&P CNX
8,809
JSTL IN
241.7
1,365/805
-13/-29/33
737/660
60.4
CMP: INR977
TP: INR1,176 (+20%)
Buy
EBITDA in-line; WC up; RM cost reduction to protect margins
Consolidated EBITDA declined 18% QoQ to INR23b in-line with estimates. Interest
cost increased 10% QoQ to INR9.37b on increase in working capital and
refinancing cost. Adjusted PAT declined 57% QoQ to INR3.2b..
Steel prices impacted standalone margin:
EBITDA declined 19% QoQ to INR21.2b
although sales volumes declined only 1% QoQ to 3.03mt. EBITDA per ton declined
sharply by INR1546/t QoQ to INR6,988/t largely because of correction in
realization (NSR) by INR1,291/t QoQ. Share of value added products (VAP)
increased 2pp QoQ to 35%. There was no correction seen in raw material cost.
Subs too were hurt:
EBITDA contribution from subsidiaries declined 7% QoQ to
INR1.8b due to decline in margins at JSW coated and widening of overseas losses.
Net debt up on working capital increase:
Net debt increased by INR35b QoQ to
INR39.6b (excluding acceptances of USD1.425b) due to increase in working capital
on account of iron ore imports, and steel inventories increase (by 135kt).
Volumes guidance intact:
Despite challenges of weak demand, rising imports and
pricing pressure, JSW Steel is on track to deliver 12.2mt sales volumes in FY15.
Margins to be resilient, in our view:
raw material costs is likely to be lower QoQ
by INR1500-2000/t on account of fall in iron ore prices (by USD11-13/t) and fall in
coking coal sea freights (by USD6/t). The margins are likely to be protected as raw
material cost reduction will offset realization decline to the extent of US30/t.
Target price cut, Maintain Buy:
We have cut FY16 EBITDA and target prices by 4% and
9% to INR97.8b and INR1,176/share (upside 20%) respectively. JSW Steel is one of few
Indian steel companies that can protect margins through cost reduction. Expansion of
capacity by 1.7mtpa is on schedule to be completed during FY16. JSW Steel may
review further capex to manage financial leverage.
Maintain Buy.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 236.2/3.8
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
2015E 2016E 2017E
538.7
102.4
23.2
95.5
147.6
10.3
10.0
10.2
1.0
6.5
535.9
97.8
20.0
81.6
-14.5
8.2
8.7
12.0
1.0
6.7
573.5
100.4
19.6
79.9
-2.1
7.6
8.6
12.2
0.9
6.5
9%
11%
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.