5 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Godrej Consumer
BSE SENSEX
28,851
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR M)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,712
GCPL IN
340.3
1,134/701
8/17/7
160/181
36.7
CMP: INR1,078
TP: INR1,200 (+11%)
Neutral
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 366.7/5.9
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj.EPS
(INR)
Gr. (%)
2015E 2016E 2017E
83.2
13.5
9.0
26.4
21.8
97.2
18.1
12.3
36.0
36.5
158.7
22.7
25.8
29.9
6.8
114.0
21.5
14.9
43.7
21.3
191.9
22.8
26.8
24.7
5.6
BV/Sh.(INR) 133.2
RoE (%)
19.8
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
21.8
40.8
8.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
5%
9%
Godrej Consumer’s 3QFY15 results were ahead of expectations with consolidated
sales growth of 12.5% to INR22.3b (est. INR22.8b), EBITDA growth of 26.5% to
INR3.9b (est. INR3.6b) and Adj. PAT growth of 34.8% at INR2.6b (est. INR2.3b).The
performance was led by broad based improvement in International division.
Consolidated organic constant currency sales posted healthy 16% growth with
12% growth in domestic entity and 20% growth in international business.
Consol Gross margins expanded modest 30bp YoY to 53.6% (despite strong 350bps
expansion in domestic entity). EBITDA margins expanded 200bp to 17.5% (est.
16%) on account of savings in other expenses (down 20bp YoY to 16.8%), ad
spends (down 170bp to 9.8%). Consequently, EBITDA reported robust 26.5% YoY
to INR3.9b. PBT and PAT posted 34% and 34.8% YoY growth, resp.
Standalone business
posted 12% YoY growth. According to management, GCPL’s
India business grew 1.6x of HPC growth rates. Home Insecticide registered 16%
sales growth (exit market share at all time high) while Hair care reported 10%
growth (37% growth in base quarter). Soaps revenues were up 11% while the
category growth was in low single digits, as per management.
International sales grew 12%
to INR 10.6b (20% organic constant currency
growth) primarily led by 19%, 25% and 36% constant currency sales growth in
Indonesia, LATAM and Africa, respectively. Organic constant currency EBITDA
grew 43%; margins expanded 260bp to 15% primarily due improved performance
in the Indonesian (up 330bs) and Latin American (up 270bps) entities.
Valuation and view:
We are revising our estimates upwards by 4-6% to bake in 3Q
beat. The stock trades at 29.9x FY16 and 24.7x FY16/17 EPS respectively, at a
discount to sector. GCPL’s 50% revenues come from International division which
has remained volatile. The discount to sector is warranted, in our view given the
higher exposure to international business and consequent higher volatility and
attendant currency risks. Maintain Neutral with revised target price of INR1200
(27x FY17 EPS, 20% discount to HUL). Spike in input cost and heightened
competitive intensity post commodity cost correction constitute key risks.
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.