12 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
Cipla
BSE SENSEX
28,534
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
Avg Val,INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
AdjEPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV/TON(USD)
2015E 2016E 2017E
111.6 134.7 157.4
22.2
12.1
15.1
-12.5
11.0
14.7
15.5
0.3
29.1
17.8
22.2
47.1
14.1
18.1
11.8
0.3
36.2
23.5
29.3
31.6
15.9
20.5
10.0
0.4
S&P CNX
8,627
CIPLA IN
802.9
711/367
0/37/20
978/191
63.2
CMP: INR662
TP: INR755 (+14%)
Buy
Operationally in line; await revenue scale-up
Cipla’s (CIPLA) 3QFY15 results were operationally in line. Sales at INR27.7b (+7% YoY,
6% miss) was subdued on capacity constraints. However, higher other operating
income (INR1.4b) resulted in stronger EBITDA margin of 20% (19.3% est.), driving 19%
EBITDA growth YoY (INR5.5b, in-line). Hence, PAT at INR3.3b (up 15%) met estimates.
Capacity constraints impacted revenue offtake:
3Q revenue was constrained on
weaker exports (down 6% YoY) due to (a) bottleneck in API sourcing, (b) order
deferment and (c) sub-optimal demand planning. Domestic formulations sustained
healthy growth at 15% YoY. We expect export traction to build up going forward led by
(a) pick-up in gNexium supplies (high margin) to Teva, (b) scale-up of new tender wins
(USD189m over three years), (c) expanded product portfolio in South Africa under JV
with Teva and (d) potential launch of EU inhalers (mdi) over the next 12-18 months.
We est. Cipla’s revenue to post 19% CAGR over FY15E-17E (v/s 11% in FY15E).
Margins to improve on operating leverage:
3Q EBITDA margin surprise was primarily
aided by higher other operating income, including licensing income from Salix.
However, CIPLA is likely to reap the operating leverage emanating from recent front-
end creation (15 markets) in export markets, including US as revenue momentum
builds up. Moreover, improved product mix resulting from gNexium supplies (more
from 1QFY16) and scale-up of inhaler portfolio (UK launch by FY16-end) would aid
margin expansion from 20% in FY15E to 23% by FY17E.
Valuation and view:
Despite the recent stock outperformance, we expect CIPLA to
sustain the premium valuation due to (a) potential earning upgrades on stronger
market share accretion in EU inhaler launches (mainly UK), (b) strong earnings
trajectory (39% EPS CAGR over FY15E-17E), (c) earlier-than-expected benefit from
front-end strategy in key emerging markets (South Africa) and formidable domestic
franchise. We maintain
Buy
rating with an SOTP-based target price of INR755, valuing
the base business at INR730 (25x FY17E EPS) and including adjusted NPV for inhaler
portfolio (INR25).
Key risks:
Delay in launches of inhalers in EU and execution failure in
other markets.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 531.5/8.5
137.9 157.5 183.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Arvind Bothra
(Arvind.Bothra@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(Amey.Chalke@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.