13 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
SAIL
BSE SENSEX
29,095
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
AvgVal(INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,806
SAIL IN
4,130.4
309.8/5.0
113/54
-10/-20/-19
556/6,749
25
CMP: INR75
TP: INR44 (-41%)
Downgrade to Sell
In-line; pricing pressure ahead; downgrade to Sell
SAIL’s 3Q performance was weak, as expected. PAT, adjusting for INR2b gain on sale of
cement JV, declined 36% QoQ to INR4.2b. EBITDA declined 10% QoQ to INR12.1b,
driven by lower margins and lower volumes.
n
Sales volume declined 3% QoQ:
Steel sales volume declined 3% QoQ to 2.86mt on
poor demand. Inventories increased by 96kt to 1.354mt. Saleable steel production
declined 3% as well. ISP lit new blast furnace on 30 November and produced 155kt
hot metal, but hardly contributed to saleable steel.
n
Steel realization declined 4% QoQ:
Net sales realization (NSR) declined by
~INR950/t QoQ (-2%), while steel realization was down 4% QoQ to INR35,175/t.
Non-steel revenue increased INR1.1b QoQ.
n
EBITDA/t declined INR329 QoQ to INR4,224:
Lower P&F cost and coking coal
costs helped reduce cost of production by INR625/t partially absorbing NSR loss.
n
PBT declined 31% QoQ on capitalization:
Interest and depreciation increased 3%
and 19% QoQ due to capitalization of ISP, Burnpur from 30 November. PBT
(before EO) declined 31% QoQ to INR5.2b (in-line).
n
Pricing pressure ahead:
NSR is likely to decline further by INR1,500/t QoQ in
4QFY15, with more downside risk because import prices are 4,000-5,000/t lower
than current domestic steel prices. Build-up of steel inventories (3mt in 9MFY15 in
India) and continued import pressure could force another price cut.
n
Volumes significantly off target:
Despite commissioning of two new blast
furnaces, SAIL will once again finish the year with near flat volumes, significantly
missing the target of 8.3% growth in FY15. SAIL is unable to reap the benefit of
operating leverage due to delay in production ramp-up, and poor market
conditions.
n
Target price cut 37%; downgrade to Sell:
We are reducing FY16E realization and
EBITDA/t by USD20 to USD60/t and volumes by 100k to 14.2mt (+16.4% YoY). We
cut FY16E EBITDA by INR18b to INR53b and our target price by 37% to INR44.
Sell.
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr(%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV
EV/EBITDA (x)
2015E 2016E 2017E
478.8 526.8 605.6
56.7
22.1
5.3
58.9
9.3
2.3
72.7
12.3
3.0
32.1
2.8
25.1
0.7
9.3
16.5 -57.8
5.0
14.0
0.7
10.0
2.1
33.2
0.7
10.6
108.2 108.1 108.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
37%
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.