3 March 2015
Update | Sector:
Consumer
Asian Paints
BSE SENSEX
28,845
S&P CNX
8,757
CMP: INR814
TP: INR900 (+11%)
Neutral
Attractive medium term Paints outlook
Margin expansion may be offset by higher overheads
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
AdjEPS(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
Div. Yld (%)
54.5
16.4
36.6
0.9
39.2
13.4
26.1
1.2
32.0
11.0
21.0
1.5
2015E 2016E 2017E
141.2
20.8
14.3
14.9
16.6
49.5
32.6
35.1
40.2
164.7
28.9
19.9
20.8
38.9
60.6
37.7
42.5
39.7
191.6
35.4
24.4
25.5
22.7
74.2
37.8
43.9
40.1
APNT IN
959.2
923/478
2/19/38
47.2
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 780.9/12.5
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 871/1,316
Following are the key takeaways from our discussion with APNT’s management:
n
Planning for double digit volume growth in next 2-3 years:
APNT’s management
is optimistic on the medium term Decorative paints demand in India and is looking
at double digit volume growth. Weak sentiments impacted demand in 3QFY15.
While rural growth is still higher versus urban, the gap is narrowing. As per
management, expectations of a price cut would not have resulted in any
meaningful change in inventory levels in trade. We note that APNT has taken 2%
price cut effective Mar 1, 2015 in its Decorative paints portfolio. Our channel
checks suggest Decorative paint demand has improved QoQ.
n
Industrial Paints growth revival on the cards:
APNT is witnessing good demand in
both Auto and non-Auto industrial paints and is hopeful of strong performance in
FY16. The segment will also benefit from a lower growth in the base.
n
Cost savings from lower RM has kicked in, benefits to be lower than perceived:
Benefits of lower RM costs post sharp correction in crude prices have kicked in
beginning December 2014. However, the magnitude of correction in crude
derivatives prices is lower versus crude prices. Also, APNT wants to retain its
status as market setter in pricing actions; thus, we expect price cuts to continue if
RM environment remains benign. Overheads costs rose as it ventured deeper into
smaller towns where infrastructure shortfalls remain. Also, power & fuel, rental,
toll costs and transportations costs have gone up. Thus, the extent of margin
expansion at EBITDA level may be lesser than the correction in crude price would
otherwise suggest, as per management.
n
Driving International profitability is a focus; expanding operations in new
geographies:
APNT is looking to drive margin improvement in the International
segment. Profitability and RoCE will remain lower in these markets versus
domestic business. However, management sees good potential to expand its
presence in geographies like Ethiopia (recently-acquired) and Indonesia (recently
got permission to set up business) over the medium term. We note that APNT
built ~25% market share in Bangladesh from nil in a period of 10 years.
n
Ramping up Home Improvement presence:
APNT’s presence in the Home
Improvement segment, via the acquisition of Sleek and Ess Ess, is gradually
expanding. Both these brands were regional in nature, with predominant presence
in Western and Southern geographies. APNT is planning to take these brands
national and bring the service levels to its standards. Some of company’s dealers
already retail home improvement products, and management is bringing the
acquired brands into APNT’s network.
n
Valuation and view:
We estimate 31% EPS CAGR over FY15E-17E, with underlying
gross and EBITDA margin expansion of 420bp and 390bp, respectively. While
improving macros and consumer sentiment should drive volume growth going
ahead, valuations at 39.2x FY16E and 32x FY17E discount the positives, in our
view. Maintain
Neutral
with a target price of INR900 (35x FY17E, three-year
average P/E).
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Asian Paints
Other takeaways
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Government’s programme on housing and smart cities can push up volume
growth for few years. However, APNT is not focused on project customers due
to lower margins. Thus, it may not receive significant benefits from that
programme. Other players like Nippon, Jotun are targeting project-based
customers.
Largely, APNT, Berger and Kansai seem focused on branded retail operations.
APNT is pursuing opportunities in Kitchen and Bath space independent of Paints.
Thus, any change in the growth rate of Paints business will not have any
ramifications on other opportunities.
Over the last 10 years, market share has shifted 500bp in favor of branded
players.
No change in discounting structure of paints companies due to recent RM
correction.
Dealers count stands at 35,000 and it plans to add 1,500 dealers per annum.
28,000 dealers have tinting machines.
Smaller town outlets keep higher inventory due to lower frequency of servicing
by paint players.
GST will marginally help from input cost credit viewpoint. However, APNT would
not change its logistics structure. Currently, it pays excise of 12.5% and VAT of
12-15%.
9 March 2015
2

Asian Paints
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Revenue to post 16.5% CAGR over FY15E-17E
Sales (INR b)
24.0
22.3
15.6
24.3
13.3
15.7
16.6
12.2
16.3
Sales growth (%)
Exhibit 2: APNT has taken 2% price cut in Deco paints
4.2
2.6
2.9
1.0
1.2
4.4
Price Increase/Decrease(%)
3.2
2.5
2.2 2.0
1.82.1
1.3
1.2
1.2 1.0
1.01.2
0.4
-0.3
-2.0
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: Gross margin to expand 420bp over FY15E-17E
Gross Margin (%)
46.7
43.8
42.1
38.3
39.8
41.0
41.7
42.9
47.1
Exhibit 4: EBITDA margin to expand 390bp over FY15E-17E
EBITDA Margin (%)
18.4
17.2
15.4
12.3
15.3
14.8
14.7
17.5
18.5
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 5: PAT to post 31% CAGR over FY15E-17E
PAT (INR b)
107.9
PAT growth (%)
Exhibit 6: Return Ratios (x)
57.3
RoE (%)
43.3
36.7
38.9
-3.9
FY09
FY10
1.0
FY11
17.3
FY12
12.7
FY13
10.3
16.6
22.7
40.1
36.3
37.7
33.1
32.6
37.8
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Source: Company, MOSL
9 March 2015
3

Asian Paints
Financials and valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Raw Materials
Gross Profit
Margin (%)
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Int. and Fin. Charges
Other Income
Profit before Taxes
Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PBT Before Minority
Minority Interest
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Exceptional/Prior Period inc
Reported PAT
FY11
77,223
15.6
44,746
32,477
42.1
19,196
13,281
8.2
17.2
1,131
232
680
12,597
3,502
282
30.0
8813
381
8,432
1.0
10.9
0
8,432
FY12
95,983
24.3
57,770
38,213
39.8
23,465
14,749
11.1
15.4
1,211
410
1,413
14,541
4,274
61
29.8
10206
319
9,887
17.3
10.3
0
9,887
FY13
108,744
13.3
64,130
44,614
41.0
27,936
16,677
13.1
15.3
1,546
367
1,788
16,552
4,364
593
29.9
11595
456
11,139
12.7
10.2
0
11,139
FY14
125,816
15.7
73,406
52,411
41.7
33,762
18,649
11.8
14.8
2,457
422
2,674
18,444
5,378
338
31.0
12729
440
12,289
10.3
9.8
-100
12,190
FY15E
141,223
12.2
80,707
60,516
42.9
39,746
20,770
11.4
14.7
2,705
330
3,427
21,162
6,242
317
31.0
14602
268
14,334
16.6
10.1
0
14,334
FY16E
164,692
16.6
87,753
76,939
46.7
48,071
28,868
39.0
17.5
3,090
300
3,946
29,424
8,827
588
32.0
20009
98
19,911
38.9
12.1
0
19,911
(INR Million)
FY17E
191,603
16.3
101,307
90,296
47.1
54,907
35,389
22.6
18.5
3,429
225
4,424
36,159
10,847
723
32.0
24589
161
24,428
22.7
12.7
0
24,428
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Other Liability
Minority Interest
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current
Non-current
Curr. Assets, L&A
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liab. and Prov.
Account Payables
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Godwill on Cons.
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
FY11
959
20,915
21,874
2,334
979
1,099
26,287
19,878
7,151
12,727
433
4,290
3,665
625
28,284
13,054
5,731
6,262
3,237
19,819
10,874
5,277
3,668
8,465
372
26,287
FY12
959
26,526
27,485
3,411
1,063
1,367
33,326
21,043
8,453
12,590
6,171
3,547
2,850
697
34,398
15,989
7,813
6,243
4,354
23,796
12,625
6,722
4,449
10,602
415
33,326
FY13
959
32,884
33,843
2,510
1,638
1,608
39,598
33,851
9,884
23,967
592
2,957
1,456
1,501
39,887
18,303
9,809
7,367
4,408
28,247
14,416
8,438
5,394
11,639
442
39,598
FY14
959
39,433
40,393
2,492
1,970
2,460
47,314
36,621
12,419
24,202
716
7,212
5,291
1,921
46,829
20,699
11,103
9,317
5,711
33,059
17,457
8,923
6,679
13,770
1,414
47,314
FY15E
959
46,553
47,512
3,000
2,301
2,728
55,541
40,121
15,125
24,997
716
12,271
11,483
788
50,746
22,054
11,607
10,614
6,471
34,603
18,132
9,825
6,646
16,144
1,414
55,541
FY16E
959
57,203
58,162
2,000
2,905
2,826
65,894
45,121
18,215
26,907
716
16,986
16,198
788
59,269
25,719
13,988
12,228
7,334
39,398
19,233
10,818
9,346
19,871
1,414
65,894
(INR Million)
FY17E
959
70,181
71,140
2,000
3,646
2,988
79,774
50,121
21,643
28,478
716
26,706
25,918
788
68,266
30,446
16,798
12,705
8,317
45,806
22,204
11,914
11,687
22,460
1,414
79,774
9 March 2015
4

Asian Paints
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Working Capital Ratios
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
FY11
8.8
10.0
22.8
3.7
36.4
FY12
10.3
11.6
28.7
4.6
38.8
FY13
11.6
13.2
35.3
5.4
39.6
FY14
12.8
15.4
42.1
6.2
41.4
FY15E
14.9
17.8
49.5
7.0
40.2
FY16E
20.8
24.0
60.6
9.7
39.7
FY17E
25.5
29.0
74.2
11.9
40.1
92.6
81.7
10.0
58.2
35.7
0.5
79.0
70.4
8.1
52.5
28.4
0.6
70.1
61.6
7.1
46.4
23.1
0.7
63.5
53.0
6.1
41.1
19.3
0.8
54.5
45.8
5.4
36.6
16.4
0.9
39.2
34.0
4.6
26.1
13.4
1.2
32.0
28.0
3.9
21.0
11.0
1.5
43.3
51.5
40.1
45.4
36.3
41.5
33.1
37.3
32.6
35.1
37.7
42.5
37.8
43.9
27
3.6
30
4.1
33
3.1
32
3.3
30
3.4
31
3.5
32
3.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Net interest
Direct Taxes Paid
(Incr)/Decr in WC
CF from Operations
Incr in FA
Pur of Investments
CF from Invest.
Incr in Debt
Dividend Paid
Int./Div. Received
Interest Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Incr/Decr of Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
FY11
12,597
1,131
-448
-3,502
-1,771
8,007
-1,235
1,951
717
42
-3,571
680
-232
-440
-3,521
5,204
1,058
6,262
FY12
14,541
1,211
-1,004
-4,274
-2,156
8,318
-6,903
742
-6,161
1,077
-4,459
1,413
-410
202
-2,177
-19
6,262
6,243
FY13
16,552
1,546
-1,421
-4,364
87
12,400
-7,230
591
-6,639
-902
-5,155
1,788
-367
-2
-4,638
1,123
6,243
7,367
FY14
18,444
2,457
-2,252
-5,378
-181
13,090
-2,894
-4,255
-7,149
-18
-5,904
2,674
-422
-321
-3,991
1,950
7,367
9,317
FY15E
21,162
2,705
-3,097
-6,242
-1,076
13,452
-3,500
-5,059
-8,559
509
-6,734
3,427
-330
-467
-3,595
1,298
9,317
10,614
FY16E
29,424
3,090
-3,646
-8,827
-2,113
17,928
-5,000
-4,715
-9,715
-1,000
-9,259
3,946
-300
14
-6,598
1,615
10,614
12,229
(INR Million)
FY17E
36,159
3,429
-4,199
-10,847
-2,113
22,429
-5,000
-9,720
-14,720
0
-11,447
4,424
-225
15
-7,233
476
12,228
12,705
9 March 2015
5

Asian Paints
Corporate profile: Asian Paints
Company description
Asian Paints is India's largest paint manufacturer
and marketer, with a dominant share in the
decorative segment. For the industrials and
automotive segment, it has a JV with PPG of the
US. Asian Paints acquired Berger International of
Singapore to expand its operations in other
markets in Asia, the Middle East and the Caribbean.
Exhibit 7: Sensex rebased
Exhibit 8: Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-14
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
52.8
9.9
17.3
20.1
Sep-14
52.8
9.2
18.1
19.9
Dec-13
52.8
7.9
19.5
19.9
Exhibit 9: Top holders
Holder Name
Life Insurance Corpn.Of India
Ojasvi Trading Private Limited
Aberdeen Global Indian Equity (Mauritius) Ltd
% Holding
5.5
4.9
1.5
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 10: Top management
Name
Ashwin Choksi
Ashwin Dani
K B S Anand
Jayesh Merchant
Designation
Chairman
Vice Chairman
Managing Director & CEO
Company Secretary
Exhibit 11: Directors
Name
Ashwin Choksi
Ashwin Dani
K B S Anand
Jayesh Merchant
Amar Vakil
Mahendra Choksi
S Sivaram*
S Ramadorai*
*Independent
Name
Dipankar Basu*
Mahendra Shah*
Deepak Satwaleka*r
Malav Dani
M K Sharma*
Vibha Paul Rishi*
Amrita Vakil
Exhibit 12: Auditors
Name
BSR & Co LLP
Shah & Co
RA & Co
Type
Statutory
Statutory
Cost Auditor
Exhibit 13: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS (INR)
FY15
FY16
FY17
MOSL
forecast
14.9
20.8
25.5
Consensus
forecast
15.6
21.3
25.9
Variation (%)
-4.6
-2.3
-1.4
9 March 2015
6

Asian Paints
NOTES
9 March 2015
7

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