16 March 2015
Update | Sector: Metals
Hindustan Zinc
BSE Sensex
28,438
S&P CNX
8,633
CMP: INR168
TP: INR212 (+26%)
Buy
Roadmap to 1.2mtpa mine capacity
We visited Rampura Agucha open cast (RAM-OC), underground (RAM-UG) and
Sindesar Kurd underground mines (SKM) of Hindustan Zinc (HZ) during Mar
12-13, 2015. Key takeaways are:
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol‘000
Free float (%)
n
HZ IN
4,225.3
710.7/11.3
190117
-2/-6/13
260/1,625
35.1
n
n
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
Sales
150.2 155.4 159.1
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr(%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
8.3
1.6
5.0
1.1
9.1
1.4
4.2
2.1
8.8
1.2
3.4
2.1
77.6
85.9
20.3
24.7
20.8
22.9
11.0
79.4
78.1
18.5
-9.1
16.3
19.4
22.2
79.7
80.4
19.0
3.0
14.8
17.7
21.5
n
n
106.5 120.9 135.8
Ultimate depth of RAM-OC has increased from 372 meters to 420 meters to
compensate for the slower progress on sinking of shaft, while the closure dates
remain unchanged at 2020.
RAM-UG shaft sinking has reached ~600 meters. The progress has been slower
than initially envisaged due to geological challenges (such as water pockets). The
3.75mtpa 950 meters deep main hoisting shaft sinking and commissioning is
expected to be completed by end-2018. Meanwhile, production from UG will be
ramped up through two declines.
SK mines shaft sinking has reached 1,000 meters (ultimate depth is 1,050 meters).
The shaft commissioning will be completed by end-2018. Ore production will
increase from 2mt in FY15E to 3mt in FY17E and 3.75mtpa on commissioning of
the shaft in FY20.
Silver production will increase by 21% to 400t in FY16E, as the production of
silver-rich SK mines ramp up.
Total ore production capacity will increase from 10mtpa to 15mtpa once the
USD1.5b (USD1b remaining) capex is completed. Hence, zinc and lead metal
production will increase a bit slower by 22% at ~1.1mt on tapering of production
at high grade RAM. Production of lead and silver will increase at a faster rate.
The site visit reaffirmed our mine production growth estimate of 6%/2% in
FY16E/17E. We expect mine production to increase to 952kt by FY17E, from
881kt in FY15E, driven primarily by the ramp-up at SK mines and expansion of
other smaller mines. At RAM, we expect the declining production from OC will
be largely offset through an increase in production from declines as the mine
transitions to underground by FY20-21. Silver production is expected to grow by
21%/8% in FY16E/17E on ramp-up of silver-rich SK mines.
At our LME zinc price estimate of USD2,200/t and lead price of USD1,900/t, our
12-month EV/EBITDA based target price is INR212, implying an upside of 26%.
Maintain
Buy.
Zinc prices are likely to remain supported going forward, in our
view, on the back of a few key mine closures globally (660kt is expected to get
closed in CY15, representing ~5% of global demand). This, along with a steady
demand growth, is likely to turn the zinc global market into a deficit in the
medium term, thereby supporting prices.
At spot LME zinc of USD2,000/t and lead of USD1,800/t, our EBITDA for
FY16E/17E will be cut by 13%/14%. Thus, the 12-month implied value will stand
reduced to INR193, still implying an upside of 15%.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.