17 March 2015
Update | Sector: Automobiles
Tata Motors
BSE Sensex
28,736
S&P CNX
8,723
CMP: INR572
TP: INR690 (+21%)
Buy
JLR Feb-15 wholesale de-grew 1.2% YoY (in-line)
Downgrade EPS by 6-9% to factor delayed JLR volume recovery
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
TTMT IN
3,218.9
1,840/29.3
612/379
2/4/14
65.7
n
n
n
n
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol‘000 2,747/5,659
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E March
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
2,621 3,125 3,645
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
12.5
2.3
4.5
0.3
8.9
1.8
3.6
0.3
7.4
1.5
2.8
0.5
434
147
45.6
3.4
20.1
24.3
5.3
510
207
64.4
41.1
22.9
25.1
3.7
595
247
76.8
19.3
21.9
25.2
4.7
n
n
249.4 313.0 387.8
n
n
n
JLR Feb-15 wholesales have de-grew by 1.2% YoY (up 5.5% MoM) to 38,541
units (est 38,663 units) as both Jaguar and LandRover face pressure.
Land Rover de-grew by ~1% YoY to 32,093 units (est 33,025 units), while
Jaguar de-grew by 2.8% YoY to 6,448 units (est 5,639 units).
FY15YTD wholesale volumes for Land Rover grew by 10.5%, whereas Jaguar
has de-grew 4.2% on YTD basis, resulting in ~8% overall volume growth.
In terms of regional retail sales performance, China volumes declined by
20.3% YoY; US volumes grew by 11.2% YoY and Asia Pacific Volumes were
up by 14.2% YoY and UK volumes also grew by 14.2% YoY.
Jaguar’s retail volumes continue to decline (except F-Type) with XF de-
growing by 21% YoY (19.3% MoM); XJ also de-grew by 18.1% YoY (26.5%
MoM).
Land Rover’s retail volumes de-grew by 4% YoY with Discovery growing by
32.6% YoY (down 29.2% MoM) and Range Rover (incl. new) growing by
31.2% YoY (down 10.9% MoM). Freelander’s phase out has resulted in de-
growth of 58.4% YoY.
Commenting on the July retail performance Andy Goss, Jaguar Land Rover
Group Sales Operations Director said:
“The
Range Rover achieved its best
ever February performance this month, with sales of 4,310 vehicles. This
was also the case for the Jaguar F-TYPE, which retailed 795 vehicles in
February. With sales underway for the Discovery Sport and soon to begin for
the Jaguar XE, we are excited to see the success of our ever-evolving product
portfolio.”
JLR’s volumes have been impacted due to several transitory events
including a) brownfield capacity expansion at Solihull (by Dec-14) impacting
production at existing lines, b) captive engine plant (started in Oct-14), c)
China Chery JV plant (started in Oct-14) resulting in gradual transition of
manufacturing of select products from UK to China, d) Launch of Discovery
Sport (phasing out of Free Lander 2), and e) Jaguar XE launch (4QFY15). We
expect JLR’s wholesale volumes to normalize from 1QFY16 onwards.
We lower our EPS estimate for FY15/FY16/FY17 by 14%/8.5%/6% to
INR46/64/77 to factor in for delayed recovery in JLR volumes. The stock
trades at 8.9x/7.4x FY16/FY17 consol EPS of INR64/77. Maintain
Buy
with
TP of INR690 (FY17 SOTP-based) for ordinary shares and INR482 for DVR
(~30% discount to TP for ordinary shares).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jay Shah
(Jay.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Tata Motors
Exhibit 1:
TATA MOTORS : JLR [Wholesale]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Feb-15
38,541
6,448
32,093
Feb-14
39,011
6,634
32,377
YoY (%)
chg
-1.2
-2.8
-0.9
MoM
YTD
MoM FY15-
FY14-YTD
Jan-15
(%) chg YTD
36,527
5.5 416,666 386,550
5,298
21.7 68,164 71,128
31,229
2.8 348,502 315,422
(%)
FY15
Gr.
chg estimate (%)
7.8 459,405 6.9
-4.2 75,549 -4.7
10.5 383,857 9.5
Residual Residual FY15 YTD
Growth Monthly Monthly
(%)
Run rate Run rate
-1.3 42,739 37,879
-9.7
7,385
6,197
0.6 35,355 31,682
Exhibit 2:
TATA MOTORS : JLR [Retails]
YoY
Company Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
Feb-15
37,137
5,505
31,632
Feb-14
39,106
7,000
32,106
YoY (%) chg
-5.0
-21.4
-1.5
MoM
MoM (%)
Jan-15
chg
41,392
-10.3
6,963
-20.9
34,429
-8.1
YTD
FY15YTD
403,728
67,548
336,180
FY14YTD
379,128
68,791
310,337
(%) chg
6.5
-1.8
8.3
Region-wise Retail Sales
Region
UK
US
Europe
China
Asia Pacific
RoW
Total JLR
Feb-15
1,292
6,898
7,959
5,508
2,191
4,841
28,689
Feb-14
1,131
6,204
7,789
6,909
1,918
6,536
30,487
YoY %
14.2
11.2
2.2
-20.3
14.2
-25.9
-5.9
Jan-15
5,822
7,058
7,146
10,820
2,210
4,081
37,137
MoM %
-77.8
-2.3
11.4
-49.1
-0.9
18.6
-22.7
FY15YTD
65,155
69,014
76,489
108,771
23,861
60,438
403,728
FY14YTD
59,157
68,531
73,131
92,104
20,399
65,806
379,128
YoY %
10.1
0.7
4.6
18.1
17.0
-8.2
6.5
Brand-wise Retail Sales
Brands
XF
XJ
XK
Others (incl. F-type)
Total Jaguar
Defender
Discovery
Freelander
Range Rover (incl. new)
RR Evoque
RR Sport (incl. new model)
Total Land Rover
Feb-15
2,740
912
57
795
4,504
1,164
3,642
1,524
4,310
7,546
5,999
24,185
Feb-14
3,469
1,113
144
574
5,300
1,162
2,747
3,663
3,285
8,273
6,057
25,187
YoY %
-21.0
-18.1
-60.4
38.5
-15.0
0.2
32.6
-58.4
31.2
-8.8
-1.0
-4.0
Jan-15
3,394
1,241
81
789
5,505
1,421
5,142
2,373
4,839
10,335
7,522
31,632
MoM %
-19.3
-26.5
-29.6
0.8
-18.2
-18.1
-29.2
-35.8
-10.9
-27.0
-20.2
-23.5
FY15YTD
39,360
14,964
2,435
10,789
67,548
15,465
42,568
44,839
49,778
110,790
72,740
336,180
FY14YTD
41,340
17,495
2,678
7,278
68,791
14,890
39,917
49,192
40,893
108,585
56,860
310,337
YoY %
-4.8
-14.5
-9.1
48.2
-1.8
3.9
6.6
-8.8
21.7
2.0
27.9
8.3
17 March 2015
2

Tata Motors
Exhibit 3: Revised forecast (INR b)
Key Assumptions
Consolidated
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Profit
Cons EPS (INR)
JLR (IFRS)
Volumes ('000 units)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Profit
Standalone
Volumes ('000 units)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Profit
Rev
2,621
434
16.6
147
45.6
459
3,895
18.0
203
501
-6
-1.7
(35.9)
FY15E
Old
2,697
466
17.3
172
53.3
476
4,205
18.7
227
497
-6
-1.8
(36.3)
Chg (%)
-2.8
-6.8
-70bp
-14.4
-14.4
-3.5
-7.4
-70bp
-10.6
0.7
-5.0
10bp
-0.9
Rev
3,125
510
16.3
207
64.4
552
4,492
17.4
234
632
25
5.4
(4.2)
FY16E
Old
3,207
543
16.9
226
70.4
571
4,822
18.0
252
627
25
5.3
(4.7)
Chg (%)
-2.5
-6.0
-60bp
-8.5
-8.5
-3.3
-6.9
-70bp
-7.4
0.7
2.5
10bp
-10.3
Rev
3,645
595
16.3
247
76.8
626
5,098
17.2
260
806
45
7.5
9.2
FY17E
Old
3,737
626
16.8
264
82.1
647
5,413
17.7
277
Chg (%)
-2.5
-4.9
-40bp
-6.4
-6.4
-3.2
-5.8
-50bp
-6.0
800
0.7
45
1.9
7.5
10bp
8.6
7.3
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 4: TATA MOTORS: Sum-of-the-parts valuation
INR B
SOTP Value
Tata Motors - Standalone
JLR (Adj for R&D capitalization)
HV Axles
HV Transmission
Tata Technologies
Tata Daewoo
Total EV
Less: Net Debt (Ex FCCB & TMFL)
Add: Other Investments
Tata Motors Finance
Other Associates/JVs
Tata Sons
Total Equity Value
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - Ord Sh
Upside (%)
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - DVR
Upside (%)
Valuation Parameter Multiple (x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
8.0
3.6
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
FY16E
203
1,267
6
5
23
11
1,514
-48
FY17E
363
1,474
8
6
26
12
1,889
-226
P/BV
Carrying Cost
20% discount
Fully Diluted
@ 30% discount
1
34
37
10
11
59
59
1,664
2,222
520
690
-9.0
20.8
363
482
11.2
47.8
Source: Company, MOSL
17 March 2015
3

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Effective Rate (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2010
925,193
30.5
839,051
86,142
9.3
38,871
47,270
4,982
22,397
416
35,226
28.6
15,654
-162.5
2011
1,221,279
32.0
1,043,129
178,150
14.6
46,555
131,595
9,976
23,853
4,295
104,372
11.7
92,736
492.4
2012
1,656,545
35.6
1,419,540
237,005
14.3
56,254
180,751
13,892
29,822
6,618
135,339
-0.3
119,008
28.3
2013
1,888,176
14.0
1,622,487
265,689
14.1
75,693
189,996
20,216
35,533
8,115
136,335
27.7
99,560
-16.3
2014
2,328,337
23.3
1,954,308
374,029
16.1
110,782
263,248
25,652
47,338
8,286
188,690
25.3
141,986
42.6
2015E
2,620,917
12.6
2,187,089
433,827
16.6
133,658
300,170
27,427
39,698
8,532
220,812
32.2
146,864
3.4
2016E
3,125,064
19.2
2,614,689
510,376
16.3
156,085
354,290
30,609
40,562
7,985
283,680
26.8
207,226
41.1
(INR Million)
2017E
3,644,800
16.6
3,049,511
595,290
16.3
183,527
411,762
34,386
40,445
7,807
337,313
26.6
247,169
19.3
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2010
5,706
76,359
82,065
351,924
11,536
447,660
648,518
344,135
304,383
80,680
34,229
22,191
425,296
113,120
71,912
87,433
152,807
417,208
221,875
118,898
8,088
447,660
2011
6,377
185,338
191,715
303,622
14,638
512,440
715,231
396,987
318,245
117,289
35,848
25,443
506,995
140,705
65,257
114,096
178,422
491,378
279,031
112,776
15,616
512,440
2012
6,348
320,638
326,985
471,490
-23,743
777,803
897,791
495,125
402,667
159,458
40,937
89,177
711,679
182,160
82,368
182,381
249,952
626,116
366,863
130,835
85,564
777,803
2013
6,381
369,992
376,373
557,223
-24,094
913,206
1,205,654
570,818
634,836
60,000
41,024
90,577
829,538
209,690
109,427
211,127
280,739
742,769
447,801
134,250
86,769
913,206
2014
6,438
649,597
656,035
549,545
-7,748
1,202,038
1,585,353
681,599
903,754
70,000
49,788
106,867
1,046,103
272,709
105,742
297,118
273,241
974,474
573,157
199,707
71,629
1,202,038
2015E
6,438
796,306
802,744
540,487
-7,748
1,340,544
1,920,848
815,257
1,105,591
70,000
49,788
107,214
1,099,400
287,224
122,070
324,572
268,241
1,091,450
646,253
229,779
7,950
1,340,544
2016E
6,438
1,001,118
1,007,556
537,404
-7,748
1,543,280
2,289,973
971,342
1,318,631
70,000
49,788
107,877
1,255,571
316,787
145,551
421,198
273,241
1,258,588
727,755
273,978
-3,017
1,543,280
(INR Million)
2017E
6,438
1,241,994
1,248,432
534,320
-7,748
1,782,271
2,667,940
1,154,870
1,513,071
70,000
49,788
108,614
1,508,704
369,473
169,758
590,939
278,241
1,467,906
848,789
319,544
40,798
1,782,271
17 March 2015
4

Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Ratios (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Normalized P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2010
5.5
4.9
-4.2
-162.5
19.1
28.8
1.2
63.4
117.5
-135.3
21.7
2.0
19.9
0.2
19.1
10.7
28
45
88
2.1
4.3
2011
29.1
28.8
16.5
492.4
43.7
60.1
4.0
15.8
19.8
34.7
11.2
1.6
9.5
0.7
48.4
26.5
20
42
83
2.4
1.6
2012
37.5
37.0
20.9
28.3
55.2
103.0
4.0
12.4
15.5
27.3
8.5
1.2
5.5
0.7
45.9
29.0
18
40
81
2.1
1.4
2013
31.2
30.9
11.3
-16.3
54.9
118.0
2.0
7.4
18.5
50.6
7.8
1.1
4.8
0.3
28.3
23.4
21
41
87
2.1
1.5
2014
44.1
44.1
17.8
42.6
78.5
203.8
2.0
5.3
13.0
32.1
5.3
0.9
2.8
0.3
27.5
25.7
17
43
90
1.9
0.8
2015E
45.6
45.6
18.1
3.4
87.1
249.4
2.0
5.3
12.5
31.5
4.5
0.7
2.3
0.3
20.1
24.3
17
40
90
2.0
0.7
2016E
64.4
64.4
27.0
41.1
112.9
313.0
2.0
3.7
8.9
21.2
3.6
0.6
1.8
0.3
22.9
25.1
17
37
85
2.0
0.5
2017E
76.8
76.8
37.7
19.3
133.8
387.8
3.0
4.7
7.4
15.1
2.8
0.5
1.5
0.5
21.9
25.2
17
37
85
2.0
0.4
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2010
25,711
2,786
38,826
-12,292
26,009
17,647
-2,631
96,055
-84,532
6,416
-78,116
15,889
41,279
-28,553
-3,496
25,119
43,058
22,241
65,300
2011
92,736
4,115
46,510
-13,912
-40,484
29,639
-7,773
110,830
-81,128
4,158
-76,970
32,550
-11,677
-24,691
-10,195
-14,013
19,848
67,920
87,768
2012
135,165
5,376
56,209
-17,679
-22,801
24,401
8,549
189,219
-137,829
-72,976
-210,804
1,386
113,054
-33,737
-15,031
65,672
44,087
104,244
148,330
2013
98,926
8,115
75,693
-38,062
27,540
547
-876
171,884
-208,404
-1,400
-209,804
-42,124
85,733
-35,533
-7,414
662
-37,259
148,330
111,071
2014
139,910
8,286
110,782
-31,301
101,131
-8,263
-2,777
317,768
-389,700
-16,290
-405,989
147,284
-7,678
-47,338
-7,532
84,735
-3,485
111,071
107,586
2015E
149,123
8,532
133,658
-71,183
91,133
853
3,334
315,450
-335,495
-347
-335,842
5,344
-9,057
-39,698
-7,758
-51,169
-71,561
107,586
36,025
2016E
207,226
7,985
156,085
-76,109
107,593
1,008
0
403,788
-369,125
-663
-369,788
5,344
-3,084
-40,562
-7,758
-46,059
-12,059
36,025
23,966
(INR Million)
2017E
247,169
7,807
183,527
-89,683
125,926
1,198
0
475,945
-377,967
-737
-378,704
5,344
-3,084
-40,445
-11,636
-49,822
47,419
23,966
71,385
17 March 2015
5

Tata Motors
Corporate profile: Tata Motors
Company description
Exhibit 5: Sensex rebased
Ø
Tata Motors is the largest CV manufacturer in India
Ø
with 55% market share in MHCV and 37% in LCVs.
Ø
It also manufactures passenger cars and UVs. In
FY09, it acquired Jaguar & Land
Ø
Rover from Ford for
Ø
USD2.5b.
Ø
Ø
Ø
Ø
Ø
Ø
Ø
Exhibit 6: Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-14
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
34.3
11.0
47.4
7.3
Sep-14
34.3
10.6
47.8
7.3
Dec-13
34.3
9.6
48.5
7.6
Exhibit 7: Top holders
Holder Name
LIC of India
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd
% Holding
3.3
1.4
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 8: Top
management
Name
Mr. Ravindra Pisharody
Mr. Mayank Pareek
Mr. C Ramakrishnan
Dr. Timothy Leverton
Dr Ralf Speth
Designation
Executive Director (Commercial
Vehicles)
President (Passenger Vehicle
Business Unit)
President and Chief Financial
Officer
President and Head, Advanced
and Product Engineering
CEO (JLR)
Exhibit 9:
Directors
Name
Cyrus P Mistry
Ratan N Tata
Subodh Bhargava*
Vinesh K Jairath*
R A Mashelkar*
Falguni Nayar*
Name
Nusli N Wadia*
Nasser Munjee*
Ralf Speth
Ravindra Pisharody
Satish B Borwankar
*Independent
Exhibit 10:
Auditors
Name
Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP
Mani & Co
Type
Statutory
Cost Auditor
Exhibit 11: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
FY15
FY16
FY17
MOSL
forecast
45.6
64.4
76.8
Consensus
forecast
57.7
68.3
80.2
Variation
(%)
-21.0
-5.6
-4.2
17 March 2015
6

Tata Motors
NOTES
17 March 2015
7

Tata Motors
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