28 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
NMDC
BSE SENSEX
27,507
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,319
NMDC IN
3,964.7
196/123
2/-4/-37
20.0
n
n
CMP: INR131
n
TP: INR105 (-20%)
Sell
EBITDA beat; off-take weak, price cut unavoidable
EBITDA beat largely due to change in revenue recognition:
NMDC 4QFY15 EBITDA
declined 42% YoY to INR14.1b, but was 13% ahead of our estimates. The beat was
driven by higher sales volume at 7.7mt (v/s. est. of 6.9mt). E-auction sales are now
accounted immediately as against earlier practice of recognizing the same on
dispatch. The revenues were boosted by change in reorganization of revenue by
INR943.5m toward iron ore and INR115m toward diamonds.
PAT stood at INR14b (-17% YoY/; -12% QoQ), as lower operating profit, which was
partly offset by higher other income (38% YoY increase to INR7.3b).
We expect further price cut:
NMDC has already cut prices by ~INR1,100/t since
December 2014. We expect additional cut of INR600/t on further easing of
domestic supply, sluggish domestic demand, expected DMF at 100% of royalty and
weak international iron ore price INDEX of USD50/dmt for 62% Fe.
Volumes under pressure:
Despite a price cut in April, dispatches continue to suffer
as RINL & Essar have cut steel production due to poor demand and margins. On
the positive side, JSW has resumed off-take with marginal purchases for Dolvi.
Capex accelerating:
Investment in 3mtpa steel plant at Nagarnar is accelerating.
Capex will increase from INR31b in FY15 to INR35b FY16. NMDC has signed an
MoU to set up ultra mega size steel plants in Bastar. Capital allocation in low-RoI
and high capital-intensive projects will de-rate the stock.
Maintain Sell:
Although NMDC paid the highest-ever dividend (in its history) of
INR8.55/share in FY15, we expect it to cut dividend in FY16 on fall in profit and
increase in capex. Our estimates are largely unchanged. We expect NMDC’s
EBITDA/t to decline to INR1,280/INR1,170 in FY16/17E (from INR1,848 in 4QFY15)
on lower realization. Maintain
Sell.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 519.4/8.1
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 466/2,967
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj.EPS(INR)
EPS Gr(%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV
EV/EBITDA(x)
2015 2016E 2017E
123.6
77.8
65.9
16.6
3.1
20.8
20.8
7.9
1.6
4.3
75.6
43.4
41.4
10.4
-37.2
16.0
16.0
12.5
1.5
7.7
78.9
44.4
41.1
10.4
-0.9
11.5
11.5
12.7
1.4
7.9
n
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
n
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.