30 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Utilities
NHPC
BSE SENSEX
27,828
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val,INRm/Vol‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr (%)
BV/ShINR
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2015
82.4
52.7
24.3
2.2
7.9
27.8
8.2
7.4
9.2
0.7
2016E 2017E
80.5
49.3
21.9
2.2
2.0
28.8
7.0
7.9
9.0
0.7
83.1
49.6
22.3
2.3
2.2
29.8
6.9
7.9
8.8
0.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
S&P CNX
8,434
NHPC IN
11,070.7
30/18
00/2/-34
194/8461
14.0
CMP: INR20
TP: INR21
Neutral
Adjusted PAT in-line with estimate
4QFY15 adjusted PAT in-line with estimate:
During 4QFY15, NHPC reported
revenue of INR14.7b (up 31% YoY), higher than estimate INR12.5b. EBITDA stood
at INR8.7b vs estimate INR7.5b and reported PAT at INR6.4b, vs estimate INR2.8b.
Reported revenue and EBIDTA were aided by higher tax outgo (31%), vs our
estimate (16%). Also, the company has accrued the regulatory assets pertaining to
Subhanshri Lower project through P&L to the tune of INR5.2b, leading to higher
PAT. Adjusted for the same and prior period revenues, recurring PAT stood at
INR2.8b, in-line with our estimate.
Generation growth in-line with estimate:
During 4QFY15, the generation for
NHPC (standalone) stood at 2.9BUs, up 18% YoY and broadly in-line with our
estimate of 3.0BUs. Generation growth is led by contribution from recently
commissioned projects.
Capacity addition back-ended:
NHPC started work Teesta IV project in November
2014, while attempts to restart the work at Subhanshri Lower project have not
bear fruits. While total project under construction stands at 3.3GW, the
commissioning timelines are beyond FY17E, leading to no growth over FY15-17E.
NHPC has however announced CoD for 4
th
unit of Parabati III (130MW) effective
June 2014.
Re-iterate Neutral:
We expect NHPC to report consolidated net profit of INR22b
each in FY16E/17E. Stock trades at PER of 9x and 0.7x FY16E book. Re-iterate
neutral given lack of near term triggers, muted RoEs.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 223.1/4.0
Nalin Bhatt
(NalinBhatt@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5429
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.