15 July 2015
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Thermax
BSE Sensex
28,198
S&P CNX
8,524
CMP: INR1,038
TP: INR1,275 (22%)
Buy
Motilal Oswal values your
support in the Asiamoney
Brokers Poll 2015 for India
Research, Sales and Trading
team. We
request your ballot.
Strategic
‘Reorientation’
Highlighting the broad contours of the journey
TMX has seeded multiple growth levers over the last few years, with several of
these initiatives already witnessing initial traction:
Investments in product development are yielding new growth avenues, with
~15-18 new product lines commercialized in the last few years (aims to
generate 30% revenues from innovations in the last five years).
Indian power BTG ordering is now picking up, with TMX-Babcock JV receiving
initial overseas orders (including an order for a supercritical boiler).
Focus on selective Internationalization by i) setting up manufacturing hub in
Indonesia (for ASEAN region, end-FY17), ii) overseas EPC capabilities (Africa).
Gradual pick-up in large capex segments like cement, hydrocarbons,
fertilizers and nuclear power will be an important medium-term driver.
Expect 43% earnings CAGR in the next five years, strong ‘mid-cycle’ play
During the last cycle, TMX revenues increased ~9x from INR7b in FY03 to
INR60b in FY12. The
Strategic ‘Reorientation’
now provides robust
foundation to capitalize on the next leg of the growth.
Over the next five years, we expect revenues to increase ~2.5x (from INR53b
in FY15 to INR130b) and margins to expand from 8.7% in FY15 to 13.5-14% in
FY20, driven by traction in i) large-sized projects, ii) internationalization, iii)
Power BTG JV; this should drive 25% CAGR stock returns. TMX remains a very
strong ‘mid-cycle’ play on revival in the domestic investment climate.
We have cut FY16/17 EPS by 3.5-4% to factor in the near-term headwinds to
investment climate; maintain
Buy
with target price of INR1,275/sh.
Exhibit 1: Managing transition into the Big league, in the next economic upcycle
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
TMX IN
119.2
1,315/790
5/-2/4
124.4/2.0
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
53.4
59.7
67.6
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
4.6
2.6
21.8
5.4
3.5
29.0
33.2
195.0
14.9
18.4
36.0
5.4
6.8
4.6
38.4
32.4
216.6
17.7
21.8
27.2
4.8
EPS Gr. (%)
-6.0
BV/Sh.
179.3
( )
RoE (%)
12.1
RoCE (%)
P/E (X)
P/BV (X)
16.3
44.1
5.4
TBW has received the initial
order for a super critical boiler
(from Vietnam). Expect BTG
awards of 18-20GW in FY16.
Setting up ASEAN manufacturing
hub in Indonesia (to be
commissioned by FY17); building
EPC capabilities (received orders
of 165MW in FY15 from Africa).
Gradual pick-up in segments like
cement, fertilizers, oil and gas,
metals, etc will be a key driver.
Expect 4-5 Fertilizer plants to be
awarded in FY16.
Commercialized 15-18 new
products in last 4 years. Aims
to generate 30% of revenues
from products launched in last
5 years.
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.