23 July 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Technology
KPIT Technologies
BSE SENSEX
28,371
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. INR
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
14%
2015
29.9
3.3
2.4
11.8
-7.9
64.9
18.4
17.9
9.4
5.6
2016E
31.5
3.4
1.9
9.7
-18.2
75.0
13.9
17.9
11.5
5.2
2017E
34.1
4.5
2.7
13.3
37.1
88.3
16.3
21.6
8.4
3.4
n
n
S&P CNX
8,590
KPIT IN
196.0
40.8/0.7
233 / 124
-32/-27/-48
225/1195
78.3
CMP: INR115
n
TP: INR125 (+9%)
Upgrade to Neutral
Product segment drags revenues; margins begin to recover
Revenues decline on sharp seasonal swing in ITS:
Revenues declined 3.3%
QoQ to USD118.3m, below our estimate of USD123m. Revenue miss was a
function of greater-than-anticipated impact in the Products & Platforms
segment, which declined by over USD7.5m QoQ due to cyclical nature of
Intelligent Transportation Solutions (ITS). ITS declined to USD1.16m from
USD6.13m in 4Q. Excluding ITS, revenues were flat QoQ. Cummins declined
8.2% QoQ, in line with our estimate.
Steady start to margin recovery:
EBITDA margin was 9.5% (in line) compared
with normalized EBITDA margin (excluding one-offs) of 8% in the previous
quarter. Steady uptick in profitability through FY16 would be a positive. At
INR444.13m, PAT was slightly ahead of our estimate of INR421m. This was led
by lower depreciation of INR164m compared to our estimate of INR203m.
Outlook of revenue growth from 2Q:
KPIT cited that the profitability actions
have been put in place and those should drive margin expansion from
3QFY16. Focus from 2Q has returned to revenue growth. KPIT expects to stem
two consecutive quarters of revenue decline and deliver growth, going
forward.
Downside limited; upgrade to Neutral:
KPIT has corrected ~33% post last
quarter’s results. Despite weak revenues during the quarter, we don’t see any
significant downside from current levels, especially with gradual revenue
uptick anticipated in the remainder of the year, accompanied with margin
recovery. Margin recovery should drive near-term valuations. Further re-
rating would be driven by full-year revenue growth, which is likely to be
evident only from FY17. We upgrade our rating to
Neutral,
with a price target
of INR125 (9x FY17E EPS).
n
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.