Ecoscope: Sowing crosses the two-thirds mark; water levels yet to pick up

COPE

Monsoon Watch: Rains improve at the right time

Sowing crosses the two-thirds mark; water levels yet to pick up



27 July 2015

The Economy Observer

Monsoon Watch

Rainfall slowed during July 2015



After remaining 8% below normal during the 3

week of July,

Normal share for the month (as % of overall

rainfall has improved and is now 5% below normal as per the

normal rainfall)

Month's rainfall so far (as % of overall normal

latest data—it was 28% above normal in the third week of June

rainfall) 33

and 8% below normal a month later. IMD expects rainfall to

improve in coming days and estimates 8% deficit in July (12%

deficit for the season).

While rainfall was surplus in the North-West, it was in deficit in

the remaining regions; despite this, nearly 72% of the country has

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

received normal rainfall.

Sowing has progressed satisfactorily to cover 66% of the normal v/s

Motilal Oswal values your support in the

52% during the same period last year. Acreage for pulses, coarse

Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2015 for India Research,

Sales and Trading team. We

request your ballot.

cereals and oilseeds (for which global prices are higher or domestic

MSP hikes have been higher) has increased significantly YoY.

Water levels now stand at 37% of the total reservoir capacity, and are 15% higher than last year and 8% higher

than the 10-year average. However, water levels failed to progress much during the last week and remained

lower in the western and southern regions.

Below-normal rainfall in most regions barring north-west

(cumulative rainfall up to July 26, 2015)

Actual

Normal

rainfall (mm) rainfall (mm)

Departure

Country as a whole

386.4

405.6

-5%

North-West India

273.7

249.7

10%

Central India

405.5

434.2

-7%

South Peninsula

293.5

344.5

-15%

East and North-East India

678.2

721.6

-6%

No. of

% area of Range (% Dep

Category

Subdivisions

country

from LPA)

Excess

27% 20% to 55%

Normal

45% -15% to 16%

Deficient

28% -20% to -51%

Scanty

Source: IMD, MOSL

Exhibit 1:

Cumulative rainfall below normal in July but

improving now to lower the deficit

-5

-7

8-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 26-Jul

-6

Source: IMD, MOSL

-4

3-Jun 10-Jun 17-Jun 24-Jun 1-Jul

Exhibit 2:

Sowing improves to cover two-third of the area

compared with just half last year

24-Jul-14

24-Jul-15

Target (100 %)

101

Exhibit 3: Water levels are less satisfactory in western and

southern regions

% deviation from corresponding period of last year

% deviation from 10-yr average

15 8

-34

All India Northern Eastern

region

Source: Government, MOSL

Western

Central

-29

Southern

Source: Government, MOSL

Dipankar Mitra

(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405

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