29 July 2015
2QCY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Nestle India
BSE SENSEX
27,563
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR B)
Y/E DEC
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
2014 2015E 2016E
98.1
20.6
12.6
85.5
18.3
10.9
99.3
21.4
13.2
137.3
21.3
267.2
50.1
66.2
44.8
23.0
S&P CNX
8,375
NEST IN
96.4
592.7/9.3
7,500/5,005
4/-9/13
332/53
37.2
CMP: INR6,147
TP: INR5,750 (-6%)
Neutral
Adj. EPS(INR) 130.2 113.2
EPS Gr. (%) 6.8 -13.1
BV/Sh.(INR) 294.3 280.7
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
48.2
53.9
47.2
20.9
39.4
52.3
54.3
21.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Marred by Maggi; underlying volume weakness persist even ex-Maggi
n
Nestle’s reported 2QCY15 performance was marred by issues pertaining to Maggi
recall. Net sales declined 20.1% YoY to INR19.3b (est. INR22.3b). During the
quarter net sales of INR2.88b was reversed pertaining to Maggi Noodles stocks
being withdrawn from trade partners and market. EBITDA and Adjusted PAT came
in at INR3.6b (down 26% YoY, est. of INR4.6b) and INR2.3b (down 22% YoY, est. of
INR2.8b), resp. Nestle booked an exception loss of INR 4.5b pertaining to stocks
withdrawn from the market and consequent incidental costs (storage,
transportation and incineration costs). Exports declined 12.7% YoY driven by lower
coffee exports to Russia. Even adjusted for Maggi, rest of the portfolio would have
posted 3-4% revenue decline, per our estimates.
n
In a conference call management highlighted that typical EBITDA margin analysis
for 2QCY15 will not be relevant as certain expenses in P&L line item above EBITDA
have been classified in exceptional items due to accounting regulations and
therefore reported margins are overstated to that extent. Reported gross margins
expanded 330bp YoY to 55.8%. Lower absorption of fixed costs due to reduced
sales resulted in Reported EBITDA margin contraction of 150bp YoY to 18.6%. Thus
EBITDA posted 26.1% decline YoY to INR3.6b (est. INR 4.6b). Adjusted PAT
declined 22% YoY to INR2.3b (est. INR2.8b). Reported PAT posted loss of INR644m
due to exceptional costs of INR 4.5b.
n
Valuation and view:
We cut our estimates by 3-5% to incorporate 2QCY15 miss.
While we expect Nestle to eventually address the regulatory issues around Maggi,
uncertainty around the timelines will keep the near term estimates volatile. Given
the context of weak volume growth (even adjusting for Maggi issue), we find
valuations expensive at 54.3x CY15E and 44.8x CY16E EPS. While we appreciate
that near term P/E will look expensive due to depressed near term profits owing
to Maggi issue, the rest of the portfolio volumes are also not picking up. Thus, we
maintain
Neutral
with a revised target price of INR5,750 (38x CY16E EPS, 5-year
average P/E).
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
/ Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.