12 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Capital Goods
Voltas
BSE SENSEX
27,512
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
8,349
VOLT IN
330.7
98.9/1.5
360/199
-4/20/38
n
CMP: INR299
n
TP: INR360 (+20%)
Buy
Operating performance above estimates; UCP reports margin expansion
1QFY16 performance in line: Revenue down 9.1% YoY to INR15.9b (estimate of
INR16.3b) and EBIDTA down 0.7% YoY to INR1.3b (above estimate of INR1.2b).
Adjusted net profit stood at INR1b, down 8% YoY (in line with estimate).
UCP
reported revenue decline of 5.2% YoY as unseasonal rains led to muted
demand for ACs; we had modeled a revenue decline of 4.5% YoY. Still, EBIT
margins stood at 11.9% v/s 11.6% in 1QFY15 despite negative operating leverage.
VOLT continues to maintain its market leadership position.
EMP
business reported revenue of INR5.6b (in line), a decline of 11% YoY—led by
slow pace of execution of projects, given the constrained macro environment.
EBIT margins stood at 1.3% (estimate of 1%)—this is the fifth consecutive quarter
of positive EBIT in the EMP business. Time and cost overruns on legacy projects
are impacting margins. Importantly, capital employed corrected meaningfully from
INR6.9b in 1QFY15 to INR5.4b in 1QFY16 (stable QoQ). Thus, asset turn improved
from the lows of 3.1x in 2QFY15 to the present 4x.
Avg Val,(INRm)/Vol ‘000 765/2804
Free float (%)
69.7
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
2015 2016E 2017E
51.8
4.1
3.4
10.2
51.1
63.6
16.1
21.9
22.6
3.6
58.2
4.7
3.9
11.9
15.9
72.1
16.4
22.3
25.2
4.1
66.9
6.0
5.0
15.1
27.7
82.7
18.3
24.5
19.8
3.6
n
Project business sustains intake run-rate; book-to-bill ratio at 1.9x
Calculated order inflow for 1QFY16 stood at INR7bn and is similar to the run-rate
witnessed in the last six quarters. Order book stands at INR40.4b and is up 7% YoY.
Book-to-bill stands at 1.9x and is near its highest levels in the last 5-6 years.
Maintain earnings; retain Buy
We maintain
Buy
with a SOTP-based price target of INR360 (UCP business at 25x
FY17E EPS, MEP at 16x, and engineering products at 20x). We expect growth rates in
UCP business to rebound in the medium term, led by i) possible inflexion point in the
AC segment, ii) pent-up demand in FY16 and iii) incremental growth from air coolers.
At CMP, VOLT trades at 25.2x/19.8x its FY16E/FY17E EPS.
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.