21 September 2015
Suzlon Energy
spotlight
The Idea Junction
Stock Info
Bloomberg
CMP (INR)
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR m)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
SUEL IN
22
4,825.8
106.2/1.6
31/11
-7/-13/10
Poised for a Turnaround
Multiple tailwinds at play
Suzlon Energy (SUEL) is poised for a turnaround. Sale of its German subsidiary, Senvion
for USD1.2b and preferential issue of INR18b to Dilip Shanghvi and Associates (DSA)
should help deleverage its balance sheet and reduce interest costs.
Wind energy presents a strong growth opportunity. The government targets to install
60GW wind power capacity by 2022. The market is likely to expand from 2.3GW in
FY15 to 4-5GW per annum in the medium term, aided by restoration of incentives like
accelerated depreciation (AD) and generation-based incentives (GBI).
We expect SUEL to turn profitable at 1,300MW volume sales, which we believe will be
achieved in FY18.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015
199.5
3.2
-28.5
-10.2
-16.7
-26.1
38.8
-5.5
NA
NA
2016E 2017E
76.5 93.8
6.3 10.3
-5.3 -1.5
-0.9 -0.3
-91.3 -71.3
-5.8 -6.1
15.2
4.2
9.0 18.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
Putting house in order:
Over the last few months, SUEL has taken several steps
to put its house in order. These include: (a) stake sale in overseas subsidiary,
Senvion for USD1.2b (INR72b); it intends to use INR60b to repay high cost debt
and the balance INR12b for working capital, and (b) bringing in strategic partner,
Dilip Sanghvi and Associates, who would infuse INR18b by subscribing to a
preferential issue of 1b shares; the cash infusion would help scale up the business.
Post the Senvion sell-off, SUEL is focusing on the domestic market and should
regain market share in India, given its strong execution track record (installed
base of 10GW) and client relationships. Given the balance sheet resurrection
measures and prevailing favorable industry dynamics, we believe SUEL is poised
for a turnaround in FY18.
Enabling industry environment:
The wind energy sector in India had witnessed a
sharp fall in capacity addition from 3.2GW in FY12 to 1.2GW in FY13, led by
withdrawal of key incentives like Accelerated Depreciation (AD) and Generation-
Based Incentives (GBI) in March 2012. However, renewable energy is now a key
focus area for the government, which has ambitious plans to set up an installed
capacity base of 60GW in the wind energy segment by 2022 (versus 23GW as at
end FY15). We believe there are multiple tailwinds that will help drive the size
of the Indian wind energy market from 2.3GW in FY15 to 4-5GW in the medium
term.
Expect PAT breakeven in FY18:
SUEL is a turnaround story, given the company's
recent steps to deleverage its balance sheet (offloading overseas business,
infusion of equity through strategic partner, and focus on domestic business)
and the government's thrust on renewable energy. Though the management is
guiding breakeven in FY17 versus a loss of INR92b in FY15, we expect SUEL to
break even in FY18 at 1.3GW, which implies 29% market share in India installations.
The stock currently trades at an EV of 19x FY17E EBITDA.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Jun-15 Mar-15
Promoter 21.8
28.4
DII
15.6
21.8
FII
12.5
14.9
Others
50.1
35.0
Jun-14
38.8
23.4
6.4
31.4
Notes: FII includes depository receipts
Stock performance (1 year)
Interesting: Currently, the analyst
believes that this is an interesting
stock based on its fundamental
strength
Cautious: Currently, the analyst
does not have adequate
conviction based on fundamental
assessment of the stock
In Transition: Currently, the
analyst thinks that the stock is in
transition from "Cautious" to
"Interesting"
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1
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Ankur Sharma
(ankur.vsharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5449