21 October 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
BSE SENSEX
27,288
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,252
CAIR IN
1,874.9
292 / 121
3/-26/-47
580
40.1
CMP: INR154
Neutral
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 288.7/4.4
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Div. Yield (%)
2015 2016E 2017E
146.5 97.0 113.8
96.2 46.4 58.0
69.5 20.1 21.5
23.9 13.7 11.5
-63.3 -42.6 -16.2
314.0 321.3 329.7
12.0
4.3
3.5
12.2
4.0
4.9
28.4 24.6 24.6
4.2
0.5
1.5
5.8
11.2
0.5
3.2
1.9
13.4
0.5
2.1
1.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
EBITDA in line; stock trading at a premium to proposed merger ratio
EBITDA in line:
Cairn India reported largely in-line EBITDA at INR9.8b (-65% YoY, -
29% QoQ). However, PAT was above est. at INR6.7b led by deferred tax credit
(effective tax negative) of INR1.8b and higher-than-expected forex gain of INR3.8b
(est. INR2.2b; +109% QoQ, +58% YoY).
2QFY16 revenue stood at INR22.4b (inline; -44% YoY, -15% QoQ). Impact of lower
than expected Rajasthan production (2% lower) and net realization (discount to
Brent at 14.3% vs est of 11%) was neutralized by lower profit petroleum.
Rajasthan 2QFY16 production averaged 168kbpd (-2% QoQ):
Rajasthan
production declined to average 168kbpd (-6% YoY, -1% QoQ), led by natural
decline in core fields. The management maintained its flat production guidance for
FY16; it had earlier indicated that the growth is contingent on oil price increase.
Rajasthan realization at USD43.3/bbl implies 14.3% discount to Brent (v/s 9.9% in
1QFY16). The management expects production contribution from Mangala
IOR/EOR from 4QFY16.
Focusing on cost savings:
Crude price fall has led to capital cost reduction by ~15%
and increased operational efficiency, reduction of opex/boe to USD5.5/boe from
USD 5.8/boe in FY15.
Valuation and view
DCF value of Cairn is INR192/sh (WACC: 12%; including cash per share of
INR116/sh) at long-term Brent of USD65/bbl. However, the value of Cairn on the
proposed merger with Vedanta at swap ratio of 1:1 (plus one INR10 RPS—
redeemable preference share) works out to INR100.
Cairn’s stock price performance has diverged from the proposed swap ratio
(adjusted for RPS) Since the beginning of July, which implies an expectation of
more favorable swap ratio for Cairn shareholders due to lower risk profile of
balance sheet (high cash balance). Cairn is trading at a premium of INR50-70/sh
rather than a premium of INR10/sh as per the proposed merger.
Our target price implies an upside of 25%, but there remains a downside risk as
current commodity prices are ~20% lower than our long term crude price
assumptions. The stock trades at 13.4x FY17E EPS of INR11.5.
Neutral.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Cairn India
Exhibit 1:
Cairn India: Operating Performance
1Q
Gross oil production (kbpd)
Ravva
Cambay
Rajasthan
Sub-total
Gross gas production (mmscmd)
Ravva
Cambay
Rajasthan
Sub-total
Gross total (kboepd)
Net oil production (kbpd)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Rajasthan (70%)
Sub-total
Net gas production (mmscmd)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Rajasthan (70%)
Sub-total
Net oil + gas production (kboepd)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Rajasthan (70%)
Net Total (kboepd)
Key Operating Metrics
Fx rate (INR/USD)
Brent (USD/bbl)
Rajasthan realization (USD/bbl)
Disc. to Brent (%)
Natural gas (USD/mmbtu)
Average realization (USD/boe)
Average realisation (INR/boe)
21.9
8.6
172.8
203.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
1.6
211.8
FY14
2Q
22.6
6.8
175.5
205.0
1.1
0.3
0.1
1.4
213.3
3Q
21.9
8.2
186.4
216.5
1.0
0.3
0.1
1.4
224.5
4Q
18.8
7.3
190.9
217.1
0.9
0.3
0.3
1.3
224.4
1Q
19.5
8.4
183.2
211.1
0.7
0.4
0.2
1.2
217.9
FY15
2Q
20.5
8.4
163.3
192.1
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
194.5
3Q
23.4
8.9
180.0
212.3
0.7
0.4
0.2
1.1
218.9
4Q
26.9
8.5
174.0
209.3
0.8
0.2
0.3
1.0
215.3
FY16
1Q
25.2
7.8
172.2
205.2
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.8
209.7
2Q
22.5
9.6
168.1
200.2
2QFY16 (%)
YoY QoQ
9.8
(10.9)
14.7
23.2
3.0
(2.4)
4.2
(2.4)
8
35.0
0.0
14.9
(2.1)
0.6 2,049
0.3
(31.3)
0.3
12.5
0.9 110.4
205.4
5.6
4.9
3.4
121.0
129.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.5
5.1
2.7
122.8
130.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.5
4.9
3.3
130.5
138.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.4
4.2
2.9
133.6
140.8
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
4.4
3.4
128.2
136.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
4.6
3.4
114.3
122.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.3
3.6
126.0
134.8
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
6.0
3.4
121.8
131.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
5.7
3.1
120.5
129.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
5.1
3.8
117.7
126.6
9.8
(10.9)
14.7
23.2
3.0
(2.4)
3.6
(2.1)
8
35.0
0.0
18.3
0.1 2,049
0.1
(31.3)
0.2
12.5
0.2
50.8
6.4
4.3
121.5
132.1
6.6
3.5
123.8
133.8
6.3
4.1
131.5
141.9
5.5
3.7
134.8
144.0
5.4
4.3
129.3
139.0
4.6
4.3
114.3
123.2
6.3
4.4
126.0
136.7
7.1
3.8
121.8
132.8
6.4
3.6
120.5
130.5
5.9
4.5
117.7
128.0
26.5
4.9
3.0
3.9
(8.7)
24.7
(2.4)
(1.9)
55.9
102.8
94.3
(8.3)
4.8
93.3
5,215
62.5
110.6
96.0
(13.2)
5.7
95.3
5,956
62.0
109.2
95.6
(12.5)
5.7
94.9
5,884
62.0
107.7
95.2
(11.6)
5.9
94.4
5,853
59.8
109.7
97.5
(11.1)
5.4
93.3
5,577
60.5
102.0
91.5
(10.3)
7.1
95.3
5,766
61.8
76.0
68.3
(10.8)
6.1
68.1
4,209
62.2
55.2
48.6
(12.0)
6.0
48.4
3,010
63.7
61.9
55.8
(9.9)
6.4
56.0
3,567
65.0
7.4
2.0
50.5
(50.5) (18.4)
43.3
(52.7) (22.4)
(14.3)
38.9
45.1
6.8
(4.1)
6.1
43.7
(54.1) (22.0)
2,841
(50.7) (20.4)
Source: Company, MOSL
21 October 2015
2

Cairn India
Exhibit 2:
CAIRN quarterly P&L (INR b)
INR B
Gross revenues
Less: Profit Petroleum
Less: Levies (Cess + Royalty)
Net Revenues
Less: Opex
EBITDA
Less: Exploration w/off
Less: D,D&A
EBIT
Less: Interest
Add: Other Income
PBT prior to FX fluctuations
Forex gain / (loss)
Exceptionals
PBT
Tax
Tax rate adj. for forex & exceptionals (%)
PAT
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS
1Q
59.9
10.5
15.9
33.5
3.4
30.1
1.0
5.2
23.9
0.1
1.3
25.1
6.8
31.9
0.6
2.4
31.3
31.3
16.7
FY14
2Q
3Q
69.8 73.9
12.4 12.8
18.3 18.9
39.2 42.3
3.9
5.3
35.3 36.9
0.5
1.0
5.5
5.9
29.3 30.0
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.4
30.3 31.3
4.3 (1.3)
34.6
0.8
2.6
33.9
33.9
18.1
30.0
1.2
3.7
28.8
28.8
15.4
4Q
73.5
12.0
17.8
43.7
5.2
38.4
1.6
6.4
30.5
0.1
4.1
34.4
(2.4)
32.0
1.6
4.8
30.4
30.4
16.2
1Q
73.3
17.8
18.0
37.5
4.5
33.1
2.5
7.2
23.3
0.0
4.2
27.5
1.0
(16.3)
12.2
1.3
4.7
10.9
27.2
5.8
FY15
2Q
60.2
11.3
15.6
33.3
5.4
27.9
1.3
7.0
19.5
0.1
3.5
22.9
2.4
25.3
2.6
11.2
22.8
22.8
12.1
3Q
51.5
9.5
14.2
27.8
5.9
21.8
1.6
8.9
11.4
0.1
1.6
12.9
3.5
16.4
2.9
22.8
13.5
13.5
7.2
4Q
35.4
4.0
11.5
19.9
6.5
13.4
5.5
2.6
5.3
0.1
3.6
8.8
(1.7)
(5.1)
2.1
4.5
51.1
(2.4)
6.1
(1.3)
FY16
2QFY16 (%)
1Q 2Q
YoY
QoQ
41.3 32.3
(46.4)
(21.8)
9.0 5.4
(52.7)
(40.4)
12.9 11.3
(28.0)
(12.7)
19.4 15.6
(53.0)
(19.2)
5.6 5.9
9.1
3.9
13.7 9.8
(64.9)
(28.7)
0.8 0.7
(49.1)
(17.3)
8.8 8.6
23.0
(1.4)
4.1 0.5
(97.6)
(88.8)
0.0 0.1
12.7
256.2
3.8 1.2
(65.2)
(68.4)
7.9 1.6
(93.0)
(79.7)
1.8 3.8
58.5
n.a.
0.0 0.0
n.a.
n.a.
9.8 5.4
(78.6)
(44.5)
1.4
(1.3) (151.2) (193.1)
17.7
(81.4)
8.3
8.3
4.5
6.7
6.7
3.6
(70.5)
(70.5)
(70.5)
n.a.
(19.4)
n.a.
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3:
CAIRN quarterly P&L (USD/bbl)
USD/bbl
Gross revenues
Less: Profit Petroleum
Less: Levies (Cess + Royalty)
Net Revenues
Less: Opex
EBITDA
Less: Exploration w/off
Less: D,D&A
EBIT
Less: Interest
Add: Other Income
PBT prior to FX fluctuations
Forex gain / (loss)
Exceptionals
PBT
Tax
PAT
Adj. PAT
1Q
89.1
15.7
23.6
49.8
5.1
44.8
1.5
7.7
35.6
0.2
1.9
37.3
10.1
-
47.4
0.9
46.5
46.5
FY14
2Q
90.8
16.1
23.8
51.0
5.0
45.9
0.7
7.1
38.2
0.1
1.4
39.4
5.6
-
45.0
1.0
44.0
44.0
3Q
91.3
15.8
23.3
52.2
6.6
45.6
1.2
7.4
37.0
0.1
1.7
38.7
(1.6)
-
37.1
1.4
35.6
35.6
4Q
91.5
14.9
22.2
54.3
6.5
47.8
2.0
7.9
37.9
0.1
5.1
42.9
(3.0)
-
39.8
2.0
37.8
37.8
1Q
97.0
23.5
23.8
49.7
5.9
43.8
3.4
9.5
30.9
0.0
5.5
36.4
1.3
(21.5)
16.2
1.7
14.5
36.0
FY15
2Q
87.8
16.5
22.8
48.5
7.8
40.7
2.0
10.3
28.5
0.1
5.0
33.5
3.5
0.0
37.0
3.7
33.2
33.2
3Q
66.2
12.2
18.3
35.7
7.6
28.1
2.0
11.5
14.6
0.1
2.1
16.6
4.5
0.0
21.2
3.8
17.4
17.4
4Q
47.6
5.4
15.5
26.8
8.8
18.0
7.4
3.4
7.2
0.1
4.8
11.9
(2.3)
(6.8)
2.8
6.1
(3.2)
8.1
FY16
1Q
54.5
11.9
17.1
25.6
7.4
18.1
1.1
11.6
5.5
0.0
5.0
10.5
2.4
0.0
12.9
1.9
11.0
11.0
2Q
42.1
7.0
14.7
20.4
7.6
12.8
0.9
11.3
0.6
0.1
1.6
2.1
5.0
0.0
7.1
(1.7)
8.8
8.8
2QFY16 (%)
YoY
QoQ
(52.0) (22.7)
(57.6) (41.1)
(35.5) (13.7)
(57.9) (20.1)
(2.3)
2.7
(68.6) (29.5)
(54.4) (18.2)
10.1
(2.5)
(97.9) (88.9)
0.9 252.1
(68.8) (68.8)
(93.7) (80.0)
41.9 106.8
n.a.
n.a.
(80.9) (45.1)
(145.8) (192.0)
(73.6) (20.4)
(73.6) (20.4)
Source: Company, MOSL
21 October 2015
3

Cairn India
Exhibit 4:
Rajasthan Gross Production averaged 168kbpd, down 2% QoQ
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 5:
CAIRN Net O+G Production down QoQ led by Rajasthan (kboepd)
Ravva (22.5%)
Cambay (40%)
Rajasthan (70%)
127 129 128 127 132 134
94 100 94 100 99 99
45
26
19 25
31
4 11 12
107
131 135 129
Net Total (kboepd)
123
137 133 131
128
142 144 139
81 87 83 88 88 88 96
117 120 119 118 122 124
114
126 122 121 118
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6:
Updates on key development projects at Rajasthan field
Source: Company, MOSL
21 October 2015
4

Cairn India
Rajasthan discount to Brent at ~14.3%
The discount to Brent was highest ever and management indicated that it was
led by oversupply of heavy crudes. Lower cracks for bottom of barrel products
led to higher demand of light crudes.
Rajasthan realization stood at ~USD43.3/bbl (-53% YoY, -22% QoQ), implying
discount to Brent at ~14.3% (v/s 9.9% in 1QFY16).
Cairn continues to guide Rajasthan realization discount to Brent between 8-13%.
Exhibit 7:
Rajasthan discount to Brent at 14.3% in 2QFY16 v/s 9.9% in 1QFY16
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 8:
Update on Cairn’s Key Exploration blocks
No.
1
Exploration Blocks
KG-ON-2003/1 block
(Cairn: 49%)
KG-OSN-2009/3 block
(Cairn: 100%)
1QFY16 update
- Submitted FDP to the Management Committee
for approval in 1QFY16
- Well site surveys commenced and completed in
Q1FY16.
- Additional 2D seismic data acquired and PSDM
seismic data interpretation ongoing.
- Expect drilling in 1HFY16.
- Regional work continuing with options for
acquisition of 3D seismic data under consideration
pending the outcomes of the 2D interpretation
- In Q1FY16, continued prospect evaluation and
optimization drilling locations to be ready for the
FY16 work program.
2QFY16 update
- Same as before
2
- Preliminary depth migrated preliminary seismic data
have been interpreted
- Expect drilling in Q3FY17.
3
MB-DWN-2009/1 block
(Cairn: 100%)
4
PR-OSN-2004/1 block
(Cairn: 35%)
Srilanka Block SL 2007-
01-001
(Cairn: 100%)
South Africa Block 1
(Cairn: 60%)
- Regional prospectivity analysis completed along with
interpretation of new data
- Assessment of implications on prospects and future
exploration program underway
- In Q2FY16, continued prospect evaluation and
optimization of drilling locations
- Submitted the closure documents to Petroleum
Resources Development Secretariat
(PRDS)
- Under review, expected closure in October 2015.
5
6
- Robust portfolio of prospects generated and two
drillable prospects matured during Q1FY16.
- Prospects being evaluated
Source: Company, MOSL
Other key highlights
Profit petroleum in 2QFY16 stood at INR5.4b (v/s INR11.3b in 2QFY15 and INR9b
in 1QFY16).
Rajasthan royalty share stood at INR4.3b (v/s INR9b in 2QFY15 and INR6b in
1QFY16).
21 October 2015
5

Cairn India
Other income stood at INR1.2b (v/s INR3.5b 2QFY15 and INR3.8b in 1QFY16)
impacted by mark to market loss of USD20m on bonds and lower interest
recognition led by timing difference.
Foreign exchange gain stood at INR3.8b (v/s gain of INR1.8b in 1QFY16 and gain
of INR2.4b in 2QFY15).
Valuation and view
Cairn India production growth potential and reserve upgrades is contingent on
the higher oil price from current levels (~USD50.5/bbl). We await clarity on any
change in the reserve number.
Operational updates to watch out are (1) Rajasthan production trend, (2)
Updates on reserves and (3) Update on other exploration blocks and (4) clarity
on Rajasthan PSC extension.
DCF value of Cairn is INR192/sh (WACC: 12%; including cash per share of
INR116/sh) at long-term Brent of USD65/bbl. However, the value of Cairn on the
proposed merger with Vedanta at swap ratio of 1:1 (plus one INR10 RPS—
redeemable preference share) works out to INR100.
Cairn’s stock price performance has diverged from the proposed swap ratio
(adjusted for RPS) Since the beginning of July, which implies an expectation of
more favorable swap ratio for Cairn shareholders due to lower risk profile of
balance sheet (high cash balance). Cairn is trading at a premium of INR50-70/sh
rather than a premium of INR10/sh as per the proposed merger.
Our target price implies an upside of 25%, but there remains a downside risk as
current commodity prices are ~20% lower than our long term crude price
assumptions.
The stock trades at 13.4x FY17E EPS of INR11.5. Neutral.
Exhibit 9:
Cairn India: Key Assumptions
Y End: March 31
Exchange Rate (USD/INR)
Brent Crude Price (USD/bbl)
Disc. for Rajasthan Crude (USD/bbl)
Rajasthan net realization (USD/bbl)
FY11
45.6
86.7
12.0%
76.3
FY12
47.9
114.5
9.4%
103.7
FY13
54.5
110.5
11.0%
98.3
FY14
60.6
107.6
11.4%
95.3
FY15E FY16E FY17E
61.1
65.2
67.0
85.7
54.4
60.0
12.3% 12.3% 11.0%
75.2
47.7
53.4
Source: Company, MOSL
21 October 2015
6

Cairn India
Story in charts
Exhibit 10:
Well diversified portfolio with assets ranging from
Exhibit 11:
Cairn’s pipeline gives access to majority of
exportation to production as well as 2 overseas assets
domestic refineries as well as export option
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 12: Cairn has continually upgraded in-place
resource base
Exhibit 13: …as well as estimated
(mmboe)
ultimate
recovery
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
21 October 2015
7

Cairn India
Exhibit 14:
…however Mangala decline, slower Bhagyam
ramp-up, halted Rajasthan production ramp-up in FY15
170
128
99
181
175
172
177
190
Exhibit 15:
Management vision to produce 300kbpd at
Rajasthan
300
190
170
99
128
181
175
172
177
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 ……
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 16:
Cairn’s Rajasthan
discoveries till date
block
has
reported
38
Exhibit 17: Cairn stock trading at a premium to Vedanta
since June-15 (INR/sh)
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
(5)
(10)
(15)
1
0
1
2
4
4
6
4
2
1
0
0
0
0
5
7
1
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 18:
Cairn guides for Rajasthan realization discount at
8-13% to Brent crude price; 2QF16 could be aberration
(USD/bbl)
Exhibit 19:
1 Yr Fwd Cairn India P/B Chart
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
PE (x)
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
64.3
Min(x)
14.7
4.2
13.4
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
21 October 2015
8

Cairn India
Financials and valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Change in Stock
Employee Costs
Operating Costs
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
D,D&A (incl. w/off)
Interest
Other Income
EBIT
Forex Fluctuations
Exceptional Item
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
2011
102,779
533.3
-264
1,105
16,709
85,228
82.9
-13,596
-2,909
1,288
70,011
-1,112
0
68,899
5,556
7.9
63,343
63,343
502.6
2012
131,130
27.6
-263
861
22,475
108,056
82.4
-17,391
-2,220
3,194
91,639
6,148
-13,552
84,235
4,857
5.3
79,378
92,929
46.7
2013
175,241
33.6
-274
1,033
39,603
134,880
77.0
-23,008
-687
7,228
118,414
3,134
1,888
123,436
2,351
2.0
121,085
119,198
28.3
2014
187,617
7.1
-141
2,741
44,233
140,784
75.0
-27,098
-415
7,834
121,106
7,390
0
128,496
4,178
3.4
124,318
124,318
4.3
2015
146,462
-21.9
-11
1,105
49,162
96,207
65.7
-36,675
-204
12,849
72,177
5,244
-21,326
56,095
11,299
15.7
44,796
69,531
-44.1
2016E
97,028
-33.8
-302
1,270
49,618
46,442
47.9
-35,426
-104
13,317
24,230
5,627
0
29,856
4,158
17.2
20,071
20,071
-71.1
(INR Million)
2017E
113,766
17.3
0
1,461
54,272
58,032
51.0
-42,420
-99
15,208
30,722
0
0
30,722
9,184
29.9
21,537
21,537
7.3
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Total Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Prod. Proper.(net of depletion)
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr. Assets, L & Adv.
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Adv. and Other CA
Current Liab. & Prov.
Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2011
19,019
383,913
402,932
26,782
5,750
435,465
59,236
20,850
39,819
253,193
10,945
3,277
14,829
44,847
16,655
2012
19,074
463,847
482,921
0
6,841
489,762
59,294
30,207
45,002
253,193
18,356
8,268
14,968
70,135
35,010
2013
19,102
457,892
476,994
0
4,641
481,635
60,645
33,366
43,850
151,889
103,823
6,420
22,852
55,568
61,600
2014
19,076
555,301
574,377
0
7,356
581,733
60,193
38,644
56,969
151,922
163,638
2,971
25,124
17,619
139,829
2015
18,749
569,954
588,702
0
12,718
601,420
59,212
25,336
59,067
151,784
152,334
3,439
11,250
8,517
197,405
2016E
18,749
583,697
602,446
0
13,203
615,648
71,325
14,478
56,188
151,784
152,334
6,646
14,621
808
197,405
(INR Million)
2017E
18,749
599,469
618,217
0
13,817
632,035
79,651
4,961
47,943
151,784
152,334
7,792
17,143
27,273
197,405
12,638
16,628
50,342
435,465
24,828
19,946
83,608
489,762
17,399
40,978
88,063
481,635
27,166
48,009
110,367
581,733
40,180
26,743
153,688
601,420
22,307
27,633
169,539
615,648
26,156
28,095
195,362
632,035
21 October 2015
9

Cairn India
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Adjusted EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
Adj. Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / BOE (in USD, 1P basis)
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (No. of Days)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Net Debt / Equity (x)
2011
33.3
33.3
39.6
211.9
78.7
0.0
0.0
2012
41.6
48.7
49.2
253.2
120.4
0.0
0.0
2013
63.1
63.1
72.8
249.7
170.2
11.5
21.2
2014
65.2
65.2
77.2
301.1
221.5
12.5
22.1
2015
23.9
37.1
37.6
314.0
233.0
9.0
28.4
2016E
13.7
13.7
31.1
321.3
240.4
2.9
24.6
2017E
11.5
11.5
29.7
329.7
248.8
2.4
24.6
2.4
2.0
0.9
3.2
0.5
8.1
4.2
4.1
1.5
3.7
0.5
5.8
11.2
5.0
3.2
3.7
0.5
1.9
13.4
5.2
2.1
3.0
0.5
1.6
17.1
17.9
21.0
20.3
24.8
24.5
23.6
22.9
12.0
12.2
4.3
4.0
3.5
4.9
32
1.5
41.5
1.8
39.4
2.1
46.7
2.1
45.3
1.1
55.0
0.6
55.0
0.6
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Profit /(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Other op activities
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
Free Cash Flow
Related party loan
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Interest & dvd received
CF from Inv. Activity
Change in Equity
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Other fin, activities
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc / ( Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance b/f deposit
Bank deposit
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
21 October 2015
2011
68,900
12,226
4,935
-12,592
-10,088
63,381
-25,648
37,733
-24,438
903
-49,183
670
-7,348
-2,052
0
-8,730
5,468
6,223
11,691
33,156
44,847
2012
84,235
14,709
-6,915
-21,291
-29
70,710
-29,558
41,152
-196
2,449
-27,306
566
-14,419
-1,363
0
-15,216
28,188
11,467
39,656
30,480
70,135
2013
121,548
18,873
-1,448
-22,687
-5,730
110,556
-16,313
94,243
-117,506
3,238
-130,581
589
-12,500
-968
-11,098
-23,977
-44,002
44,463
462
55,106
55,568
2014
128,496
23,545
-773
-26,227
-14,113
110,928
-28,733
82,195
-55,700
3,142
-81,291
-945
0
-358
-27,939
-29,242
395
463
858
16,762
17,619
2015
51,091
47,545
1,501
-10,873
5,938
95,202
-55,744
39,458
-77,425
68,298
5,458
-59,414
-11,071
-47
-121
-23,094
-34,334
1,455
833
2,288
6,229
8,517
(INR Million)
2016E
29,856
32,547
261
-3,674
-23,560
35,431
-31,982
3,449
0
2,617
-29,365
0
0
0
-11,954
-11,954
-5,889
2,270
-3,619
4,426
808
2017E
30,722
34,174
4,292
-8,570
642
61,260
-32,982
28,278
0
3,954
-29,029
0
0
0
-5,765
-5,765
26,466
808
27,273
27,273
10

Cairn India
Corporate profile
Company description
Cairn India, an E&P company, listed in January 2007
through an IPO after it spun off from its parent Cairn
Energy Plc. Cairn Energy sold its majority stake to
Vedanta group making it a parent with ~60% stake. Cairn
has working interest in 9 E&P blocks. Ravva and Cambay
blocks produce about 34kboepd (Cairn WI 9.2kbpd). The
Rajasthan block, which accounts for ~80% of Cairn’s
reserves, produced at ~191kbpd (Cairn WI ~ 134kbpd) in
4QFY14.
Exhibit 20: Sensex rebased
Exhibit 23: Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-15
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
59.9
10.5
13.5
16.2
Mar-15
59.9
10.4
14.3
15.5
Jun-14
59.9
9.7
16.9
13.5
Exhibit 24: Top holders
Holder Name
Cairn UK Holdings Ltd
LIC of India
% Holding
9.8
9.1
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 25:
Top management
Name
Navin Agarwal
Mayank Ashar
Sudhir Mathur
Mike Yeager
Darran Lucas
Designation
Chairman
Managing Director & CEO
CFO
Chairman, Operations
Review Board
Director, Exploration
Exhibit 26: Board of director
Name
Navin Agarwal
Mayank Ashar
Aman Mehta*
Omkar Goswami*
Name
Edward T Story*
Naresh Chandra*
Tarun Jain
Priya Agarwal
*Independent
Exhibit 27: Auditors
Name
S R Batliboi & Associates LLP
Shome & Banerjee
Type
Statutory
Cost Auditor
Exhibit 28: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
FY16
FY17
MOSL
forecast
13.7
11.5
Consensus
forecast
19.3
19.1
Variation
(%)
-29.1
-39.9
21 October 2015
11

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