26 October 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Agro
UPL
BSE SENSEX
27,362
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,261
UPLL IN
428.6
192/3
576/300
-10/-6/32
1018
70.2
CMP: INR448
TP: INR590 (+32%)
Buy
Forex loss hurts performance despite strong volume growth of 13%
2QFY16 performance was below estimate, with ~5% YoY revenue growth (v/s est.
13%) and adj. PAT of ~INR1.9b (v/s est. ~INR2.5b), impacted by Fx and higher tax.
Consolidated revenue grew 5% YoY to ~INR28b (v/s est. ~INR30b). India revenue
grew ~5% YoY and international revenue growth was ~5%. International revenue
was driven by 10% growth in the US and ~12% in RoW. While volumes grew ~13%,
pricing growth was ~2% and forex impacted growth by 11%.
Gross margin of 39.1% improved 50bp YoY, translating into EBITDA margin
improvement of 70% YoY to 18.7% (v/s est. ~18.6%).
Net forex loss of ~INR610m (~INR360m in interest cost and ~INR250m in other
income) and higher tax further impacted adj. PAT, which was ~INR1.9b (+6% YoY).
Working capital increased by 7 days YoY (~17 days QoQ) to 110 days, impacted by
~10 days YoY increase in inventory. Net debt continued to increase and stood at
~INR37.8b (~INR10b QoQ, ~INR13b YoY).
Key highlights from call:
a) Continuous pressure on soft commodity prices, dry
weather in Asia (including India) and volatility in LatAm’s Fx were the key factors
hurting revenue growth. b) Maintains guidance of 12-15% revenue growth
(excluding forex impact) and 60-100bp margin expansion. c) Continued
devaluation in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia is resulting in distributors delaying
purchases. d) Higher sowing area for soya in LatAm would benefit UPL. e) Europe
crop cycle is shortened due to dry and high temperatures, impacting fungicide
demand. f) In France, ‘Eco-Tax’ on Mancozeb has reduced its attractiveness.
Valuation & view:
We cut our FY16/17 EPS estimates by ~12.5%/8% to ~INR30/39
to factor in for weakness in demand and Fx impact. The stock trades at 15x/11.4x
FY16E/17E EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR590 (~15x FY17E EPS).
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. INR
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
120.9 133.6 150.3
23.6 26.4 30.6
11.5 12.8 16.9
26.9 29.9 39.3
11.2 11.2 31.4
136.7 162.6 197.8
20.8 20.0 21.8
21.7 22.1 24.2
16.6 15.0 11.4
3.3
2.8
2.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
8-12%
8%
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.