7 November 2015
2QFY16 Result Update | Sector:
Financials
BSE SENSEX
26,265
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val(INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,954
UNBK IN
630.3
103/1.6
254/130
-9/25/-21
908
36.6
Union Bank of India
CMP: INR163
TP: INR215 (+32%)
Buy
Headline beat; Judicious use of capital continues; NSL low at 6.6%
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
ABV/Sh. INR
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
Valuations
P/E(X)
P/BV (X)
Div. Yield (%)
88
61.9
24.9
2.4
36.2
29.6
312
223
12.5
0.6
4.5
0.52
3.3
103
74.4
30.6
2.5
44.5
22.9
348
246
13.5
0.7
3.7
0.47
4.1
119
87.4
36.7
2.5
53.4
19.9
392
280
14.4
0.7
3.1
0.42
4.9
Union Bank’s 2QFY16 PAT grew by +77% YoY to INR6.6b (26% beat), driven by
one-off provision reversal of INR3.2b on restructured loans and INR1.1b
investment provision write back (40%+ of PBT).
Core PPoP (adj. for INR794m one-off expense) grew 3% YoY (-11% QoQ) –
impacted by muted loan growth (4% YoY) and decline in NIMs (down 20bp YoY).
Despite healthy trading gains (+3.5x YoY); revenue growth was muted at 2% YoY.
Slippages increased QoQ to INR19.3b (3.2% of loans, annualized) v/s INR15.1b
(2.6%) – impacted by one construction sector exposure of INR8b+ and relapse
from RL of INR9.8b (v/s INR6.2b in 1Q). Fresh restructuring was lower at INR4.1b
(INR7.5b in 1Q). Three accounts were restructured under 5:25 scheme amounting
to INR9b (v/s INR62.4b in 1Q). There was no SDR / sale to ARC in 2Q.
OSRL declined 2% QoQ to INR139.1b. OSRL (ex-SEB) remains the lowest (3.2% of
loans) among peers. Overall NSL (ex SEB) increased to 6.6% (+30bp QoQ).
Loan growth remains subdued at 3% YoY (flat QoQ). With the lower CET1 7.9%
focus remains on lower risk weighted RAM (Retail, Agriculture and MSME) for
growth (10% YoY/2% QoQ) which is also increasing granularity of balance sheet.
Valuation and view:
UNBK has one of the lowest restructured loans amongst the
peers and has aggressively recognized NPAs. While capitalization is low, focus on
conserving capital and moderate risk weighted asset growth is positive. Earnings
sensitivity to credit cost and NIMs has increased significantly with low ROAs. Lower
net stress additions in the ensuing quarters can result in strong earnings upside.
Valuations at 0.5x PBV and 12-13% ROE provide comfort. We raise FY16/17 earnings
estimates by 3-10%. Reiterate Buy with a target price of INR215 (0.6x FY17E BV).
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Dhaval Gada
(Dhaval.Gada@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.