16 November 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Agri
BSE SENSEX
25,760
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,807
KSCL IN
68.5
41.2/0.6
1077 / 380
-11/-48/-49
226
42.5
CMP: INR389
TP: INR414 (+6%)
Kaveri Seeds
Neutral
Results below estimates; guidance cut for FY16
Results below estimates:
KSCL reported revenue of INR934m (est. of INR1,528m)
in 2QFY16 as against INR2,037m in 2QFY15, marking a 54% YoY de-growth. Lower
cotton and corn seed sales (due to erratic monsoon and shift of acreage toward
pulses and oilseeds) impacted sales. Sales return increased significantly to INR490-
500m in 2QFY16, with corn contributing bulk of the sales returns at INR340m
compared with INR150m-160m in 2QFY15. Consequently, KSCL’s total cotton seed
packet sales declined 33% YoY—from 8.4m packets in 1HFY15 to 5.6m packets in
1HFY16. During 1HFY16, cotton revenue declined 22% YoY (from INR7.4b to
INR5.7b) and corn revenue 23% YoY (from INR1.9b to INR1.5b); rice business
posted was up a robust 28.5% YoY—from INR370m to INR450m.
EBITDA slips to a loss:
EBITDA stood at INR-453m (est. of INR91m) as against
INR328m in 2QFY15. High sales returns and consequent write-offs drove EBITDA in
the red. The total disputed royalty amount was INR660m, of which INR650m was
provided in 1QFY16; hence, impact of royalty on EBITDA was miniscule during
2QFY16. Bottom-line stood at a loss of INR475m (est. of INR102m profit) in
2QFY16 as against a profit of INR335m in 2QFY15.
Management confident of 25% growth in cotton in FY17:
Led by new product
launches like Super Duper, participation in credit markets and focus on HDP
varieties of seeds, the management is confident of regaining lost market share in
cotton. Consequently, it expects cotton seed packets to grow 25% in FY17 to 7.2m
as against 5.8m in FY16. Market share in its largest geography—Andhra Pradesh—
is expected to improve from 32%; however, the 40% level as clocked in FY15 looks
difficult in FY17. On the cotton seeds production front, management plans to
produce 9m-10m packets in FY17.
Valuation and view:
While we build in FY16 cotton sales at 5.8m packets, we cut
FY17 sales forecast from 8.4m packets to 7.2m packets; we maintain our estimates
of royalty payments in FY16, while modeling full royalty of INR180/packet in FY17.
We cut FY16/17 EPS by 31%/29%. Maintain
Neutral
(PT of INR414; 13x FY17E EPS).
Financials & Valuation (INR B)
Y/E MAR
Sales (INR b)
2015 2016E 2017E
11.6
8.8
2.0
1.9
27.5
10.9
2.3
2.2
31.8
EBITDA (INR b) 3.1
NP (INR b)
3.0
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
ROE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
43.7
42.5
47.4
48.8
8.9
3.6
-37.0 15.7
23.4
24.4
14.1
3.1
23.8
24.8
12.2
2.7
109.6 125.5 142.2
-29%
-38%
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.