Dalmia Bharat
BSE SENSEX
24,455
S&P CNX
7,438
15 January 2016
Update
| Sector:
Cement
CMP: INR767
TP: INR1,015 (+32%)
Buy
Structure simplified; KKR to have a holding in Parent
Exit valuation in line with expectations
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
Avg Val ( INR m)
Free float (%)
DBEL IN
81.3
885/408
3/41/76
62.3/0.9
3.93.9
37.237.2
DBEL Board approved mechanism for KKR exit in an equity plus cash deal.
Exit value (INR12.2b) in line; with partial exit, KKR to hold 8.5% in “Parent”.
Simplifying the structure should enhance investors comfort. Maintain Buy
Structure simplified; KKR to have a holding in Parent
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015
2016E
Net Sales
33.7
61.2
EBITDA
4.5
12.5
PAT
0.0
1.5
EPS (INR)
1.1
16.9
Gr. (%)
-209.2
1,393.5
BV/Sh (INR)
378.1
431.0
RoE (%)
0.3
4.3
RoCE (%)
4.5
8.7
P/E (x)
681.8
45.7
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
2.0
28.8
76
1.8
11.2
89
2017E
72.0
15.5
3.7
42.1
149.4
470.7
Exit valuation in line; lock in of 1 year for KKR’s full exit
9.3
While KKR’s exit was anticipated via reverse merger of DCBL and DBEL, we
find the present form of transaction a combination of management efforts
10.8
to balance out gearing and long-term potential of the business.
18.3
1.6
The transaction values 15% stake of KKR in DCBL at INR12.2b (in line with
8.9
87
Dalmia Bharat (DBEL), in its board meeting held on January 15, 2016,
approved the acquisition of 15% stake of KKR in Dalmia Cement Bharat
Limited (DCBL)—which is ~85% subsidiary of the listed entity DBEL. KKR
invested ~INR5b in DCBL in May 2010 for ~15% stake.
The acquisition will be through a mix of equity and cash where (a) DBEL will
issue 7.5m share on preferential basis (8.5% of DBEL’s new equity base) at
INR825/share and (b) will pay INR6b of cash to KKR (DBEL will raise debt of
INR3b and pay the rest from internal accruals).
This is clearly a strong step forward toward simplifying the group structure
with partial exit of KKR and shifting the holding structure from step down
subsidiary (DCBL) to parent (DBEL).
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
our assigned value), implying EV/ton of USD98-100 (16-17% IRR for KKR).
Management guided for another 45-60days for statutory approvals for deal
conclusion and 1 year lock-in for KKR’s 8.5% stake.
Net debt of the company will rise to INR66b (net debt: EBITDA of 5.5x and
net debt: Equity of 1.7x v/s 5.0x/1.8x earlier. Post the transaction,
our target price remains unchanged (<1% cut) at INR1,015/share.
Leverage play already on, structure simplification to aid comfort
KKR’s exit mechanism has been a long-pending worry for investors. We
expect the proposed mechanism and subsequent simplification of
corporate structure to aid comfort. The acquisition of balance 24% stake in
Calcom (call option for 2 years) and consolidation of other subsidiaries
(MMDR Act needs to be eased off) could be the final leg of implication.
DBEL is poised to witness benefits of operating and financial leverage, with
(a) fourth largest cement capacity (and high utilization levers), (b) balanced
market mix (45% each in south and east and 10% in Northeast), (c) ongoing
cost tailwinds and (d) visibility of de-leveraging.
The stock trades at 6.1x FY18E EV/EBITDA and USD80/ton on effective
capacity of 21.9mt. We value DBEL at USD95/ton (implied EV/EBITDA of
7.3x FY18E) at INR1,015/share. Prudent capital allocation, fast asset
sweating and de-leveraging would be key triggers ahead.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Aashumi Mehta
(aashumi.mehta@motilaloswal.com);
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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