Persisent Systems
BSE SENSEX
24,486
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,436
PSYS IN
80.0
48.6 / 0.7
944 / 575
-1/1/-17
108
61.5
25 January 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR608
TP: INR700(+15%)
Neutral
Marginal beat despite ISV decline
IP-led revenue drives beat; Enterprise traction strong:
Second consecutive
quarter of mid-teens sequential growth in Enterprise revenue helped PSYS
drive 8% QoQ growth in 3QFY16 to USD90m; 4% QoQ organic compared with
our organic growth estimate of 3%. The increase was led by organic growth of
12% QoQ in IP-led revenue v/s our estimate of 1.5%. Despite sluggish ISV, PSYS
has delivered 3-5%+ QoQ organic growth in overall revenue in three out of the
last six quarters.
Revenue-led profitability beat:
EBITDA margin expanded by 10bp to 18.8%,
80bp beat to our estimate, led by higher IP revenue this offset the negative
impact of Aepona amalgamation, lower utilization and higher onsite
proportion. Consequently, PAT grew 7.8% QoQ to INR775m v/s INR682m
estimate.
Sanguine near-term visibility:
With seasonally strong 4Q for IP-led revenue
and deals-led momentum in the Enterprise segment, we see the financial
performance sustaining in the next quarter too. Our earnings estimates for
FY17/18 are up 1.3%/2.3% factoring the strong exit.
Volatility keeps rerating in check:
PSYS is shifting its focus and energies to
growth segments like Platform and EDT, and taking big bets on the same. The
combination of drag in 70% of the business (IP + ISV) and strong traction in the
remaining ~30% has meant volatile revenue growth performance at PSYS. Also,
strong Enterprise growth has come at the cost of margins (down ~2pp in
9MFY16). At 16x FY16E and 14x FY17E P/E, valuation upside at PSYS would be a
function of consistent revenue growth at a stable EBITDA margin. Our current
target multiple of 14x factors the inherent volatility in the business and lack of
pick-up in bulk of revenues (ISVs). Maintain
Neutral.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
18.9
22.5
27.3
EBITDA
3.9
4.3
5.3
PAT
2.9
3.0
3.5
EPS (INR)
36.3
37.6
43.3
Gr. (%)
16.6
3.6
15.1
BV/Sh (INR)
180.9 205.6 235.3
RoE (%)
22.1
20.0
20.2
RoCE (%)
24.4
19.6
19.5
P/E (x)
16.7
16.2
14.0
P/BV (x)
3.4
3.0
2.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585