30 January 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Financials
IDFC Bank
Buy
BSE SENSEX
24,871
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
12-Week Range (INR)
S&P CNX
7,564
IDFCBK IN
3,392.6
178.1/2.6
74 /43
CMP: INR53
TP: INR70 (+33%)
Maiden quarter: Good start (ROA of 1.2%) to a long journey
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E March
2H2016E 2017E 2018E
NII
8.1 21.5 28.4
OP
8.0 18.3 24.4
NP
5.0 11.6 15.3
NIM (%)
2.6
2.9
EPS (INR)
3.4
4.5
EPS Gr. (%)
32.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
40.4 43.1 46.5
ABV/Sh. (INR)
39.5 41.8 44.8
RoE (%)
8.2 10.1
RoA (%)
1.2
1.4
Payout (%)
20.0 20.0 20.0
Valuations
P/E(X)
15.4 11.6
P/BV (X)
1.2
1.1
P/ABV (X)
1.3
1.2
Div. Yield (%)
1.3
1.7
IDFC Bank (IDFCBK) reported PAT of INR2.4b, with 1.2% RoA—led by trading gains
(INR1.7b), which contributed ~45% to PBT. With the pick-up in balance sheet, core
operations are likely to contribute meaningfully to profits from 2HFY17. Near-term
profitability is likely to be driven by trading gains (significant excess liquidity is built
up on the balance sheet).
IDFCBK started with trough NIM of 2%.
However, loan NIMs were 3.2% as the
bank has built up significant excess liquidity (investments: +32% QoQ)—
lowering overall NIMs. Current quarter NIMs include the full impact of negative
carry on CRR (~11bp) and SLR (~11bp, assuming investment yield of ~7.5%). We
expect NIMs to expand from the current levels, led by redeployment of excess
liquidity, moderating borrowing costs and low-cost deposit mobilization.
Stressed loans unchanged:
No slippages were reported in 3Q and overall
stressed loans (including unrecognized portion) were unchanged at INR88b
(20.5% of loans). Also, while it may not be stress as defined by regulatory body,
interest earned is accounted only on cash basis—which compresses overall
NIM
C/I ratio stood at 35.6%.
The bank opened just one branch during 3Q;
however, it expects to add 50-60 branches in next couple of quarters.
Management also reiterated that major investment related to technology is
already done. The investment is reflected in capital WIP in the balance sheet
and its impact will be visible in P&L in the ensuing quarters.
Other highlights:
1) Loans grew 3% QoQ to INR430b and customer assets stood
at INR469b (of which credit substitutes were ~2%). 2) Requirement of PSL of
INR150b, assuming Dec-15 base. 3) Tier 1 ratio remains healthy at 19.6%.
Valuation and view:
In the near term, quarterly trends are not relevant,
considering that bank is stabilizing operations. Over time with higher leverage, low
cost-to-assets and higher share of infra bonds will lead to higher sustainable ROE.
Buy with a target price of INR70 (1.6x FY17 Residual Income Growth Model)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Dhaval Gada
(dhaval.gada@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505