8 February 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Tourism
BSE SENSEX
24,617
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,489
COXK IN
136.5
41.8/0.7
344 / 188
-11/-9/-18
103
51.3
Cox & Kings
CMP: INR206
TP: INR290 (+41%)
Buy
Revenues in-line; revival in Europe tourism key
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2016E 2017E 2018E
24.3
8.1
2.4
13.8
-41.7
8.5
11.1
15.0
1.2
27.8
9.5
3.6
21.2
53.8
11.7
13.4
9.7
1.1
32.0
11.0
5.0
29.0
37.1
217.3
14.2
16.1
7.1
0.9
171.9 190.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
13%
11%
Revenues in-line, margins miss:
COXK reported overall revenue of INR5.1b (est. of
INR5.1b) in 3QFY16 as against INR4.7b in 3QFY15—a YoY growth of 9.9%. EBITDA
margin contracted from 32.7% in 3QFY15 to 21.7% in 3QFY16 (est. 31.8%).
Revenues excluding camping and Laterooms de-grew 1% to INR4.6b while EBITDA
came in at 26% v/s/ 31.4% in 3QFY15. Exchange gain stood at INR49m as against a
loss of INR652m in 3QFY15. Exceptional gains of INR1.6bm included INR1.7b from
the sale of Explore Worldwide, a subsidiary of Holidaybreak net off other
expenses. Interest cost de-grew 25% YoY to INR625. Consequently, adjusted PAT
stood at a loss of INR398m as against loss of INR556m in 3QFY15; reported PAT
stood at INR1b (est. of INR542b) as against loss of INR139 in 3QFY15.
Growth for Leisure International and Education impacted by Paris attacks:
During the quarter, Leisure India’s revenue was up 11% YoY to INR1.25b. EBITDA
grew 16% to INR570m with margins at 45.6% v/s 43.4% in 3QFY15. The Paris
attacks and severe weather conditions in UK impacted over Europe and resulted in
subdued performance of Leisure International and Education business. Leisure
International’s revenue (ex Laterooms) was flat at INR1.5b and margin contracted
from 39.5% in 3QFY15 to 25.2%. Margins were impacted by lower revenues and
higher ad spends (INR60m) in Superbreak part. Education and Meininger business
de-grew of 9%, with revenue at INR1.5b in 3QFY16 and margin declined 320bp to
22.2%. Laterooms acquired in 2QFY16 clocked revenues of INR482m and an
EBITDA loss of INR95m due to higher offline brand spends (INR250m) and
transition costs of ownership.
Revival seen beginning 4QFY16:
Management highlighted that the businesses in
Europe impacted are seeing revival now with Laterooms expected to bring
synergies. Debt reduction is on track, expected to reduce by INR5b YoY as at FY16.
Valuation and view:
Factoring in a weak 3Q, with demand pressure in Europe and
weak growth and margin in Leisure International & Education, Meininger business,
we downgrade our FY16/17/18 EPS estimates by 23%/20%/13%. We believe COXK
is on the right track for balance sheet de-leveraging, which will reduce net
debt/equity from 0.9x in FY15 to 0.3x by FY18.
The stock trades at 15x/10x/7x FY16/FY17/FY18 EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a PT of
INR290, 10x FY18 EPS (rolled over to FY18).
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +912239825422/Kaustubh
Kale
(Kaustubh.Kale@MotilalOswal.com); +912230102498
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.