9 February 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Metals
SAIL
BSE SENSEX
24,021
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,298
SAIL IN
4,130.1
160.9 / 2.4
79 / 38
-14/-20/-30
213
25.0
CMP: INR39
TP: INR30(-23%)
Sell
Operating losses continue to rise; struggling to mend operations
Another stressed quarter for SAIL amid decline in realization and its elevated cost
structure. 3QFY16 LBITDA (-ve EBITDA) of INR13.8b was higher than our estimate
of INR11.3b (and v/s. adj. INR7.6b in 2Q) led by sharp fall in realization and tepid
volume growth. Interest cost rose 12% QoQ to INR5.2b. Loss after tax (LAT)
increased 45% QoQ to INR15.3b.
Realization down 9% QoQ/volumes +1% YoY:
Blended realization declined ~9%
QoQ (or ~INR3,000/t) to INR30,825/t on cheaper imports (higher than our estimate
of ~INR2,000/t QoQ decline). Sales volume grew by just 1% YoY (6% QoQ) to 2.9mt,
underperforming JSW Steel’s (+7%) and Tata Steel’s (+10% YoY) domestic sales
growth. Finished steel inventory at the end of the quarter stood at 1.4mt, down
26kt QoQ / up 60kt YoY.
USD72/t LBITDA:
LBITDA per ton increased by ~INR1,960 QoQ to INR4,764 on
account of lower realization, partly offset by some savings in cost. Staff cost per ton
declined by INR699/t QoQ to INR8,345 on operating leverage; Power and fuel cost
declined INR456 QoQ to INR4,765.
Struggling to mend operations; Maintain Sell:
SAIL needs to aggressively focus on cutting costs, resolving operational issues so
that production can increase, and liquidate inventories to reduce leverage. None of
these efforts are visible so far.
Although measures like MIP, quality order, safeguard duties are likely to curb
imports, yet we see marginal impact on long product pricing (due to rising imports
of scrap). Flat product pricing is likely to improve by ~10% over couple of months,
in our view. However, this will not be enough to pull SAIL out of operational losses.
Therefore, we maintain Sell.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
Sales
382.9 459.8 542.4
EBITDA
-29.5 -16.0
0.5
NP
-45.8 -63.6 -59.7
Adj. EPS (INR)
-11.1 -15.4 -14.5
EPS Gr(%)
-312.4
38.8
-6.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
93.6
75.8
59.0
RoE (%)
-11.1 -18.2 -21.4
RoCE (%)
-5.9
-5.1
-3.9
P/E (x)
-3.5
-2.5
-2.7
P/BV (x)
0.4
0.5
0.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033