11 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Utilities
Coal India
Buy
BSE SENSEX
22,952
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
6,976
COAL IN
6,316.4
1,926.8 / 28.2
447 / 287
4/-1/2
1730
20.4
CMP: INR305
TP: INR445(+46%)
Cash EBITDA beat of 6%; cost deflation & operating leverage visible
Coal India’s (COAL) cash EBITDA (OBR adj.) was up 10% YoY to INR49.3b, 6% beat
on lower costs. Cost of production (CoP) of composite (OBR+coal) is down 14% YoY
on operating leverage and deflation in inputs. Stripping ratio has jumped from 1.8x
to 2.22x on advance stripping, which has eroded some of the gains. CoP of coal is
down 4% YoY to INR1,023/t. Other income was down 10% YoY to INR19.8b. Adj.
PAT was up 14% YoY to INR36.8b.
Revenue in-line; E-auction offset lower ACQ:
Revenue grew 7% YoY to
INR189b on ~10% dispatch growth (to ~137mt). E-auction volumes at 15.2mt
(v/s. estimate of 14mt) represented 11% of the mix. E-auction realization
surprised positively increasing 4% QoQ to INR1,866/t. ACQ realization were
down 1.4% YoY to INR1,277/t on weaker mix. ACQ volumes grew just 1.2% YoY
to 116mt on higher base. Last year, E-auction volumes were diverted to power
linkages.
EBITDA up 10% YoY, 6% beat on cost benefit:
cost deflation was very
prominent in diesel and explosive expenses. Wage bill too was down 2% YoY
due to net attrition and lower inflation. Higher stripping ratio (although slightly
lower QoQ to 2.2x) and CSR expenses eroded the benefits partly. If COAL sticks
to its guidance of 1050-1100mt OBR removal in FY16, the stripping ratio will be
significantly lower in 4QFY16.
Valuations & dividend yield attractive; Maintain Buy:
We are cutting E–
auction realization by 8% to INR1849/t and adj EBITDA by 7% to INR249b for
FY17E. FY18E estimates remain unchanged. Although demand is subdued, we
expect substitution of imports to continue. We expect adjusted EBITDA to grow
at CAGR of 15% over FY16-20E driven by operating leverage, rising net
attrition, and strong 10% CAGR in volumes. The stock is trading at
undemanding adjusted EV/EBITDA of 6x FY17E and 4.8x FY18E, which is pricing
in uncertainties of price hike. Dividend yield is attractive at 6.1%. Maintain Buy.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
767.2 879.6 996.5
EBITDA
161.0 183.9 238.0
PAT
144.5 160.4 198.1
EPS (INR)
22.9
25.4
31.4
Gr. (%)
5.2
11.0
23.5
BV/Sh (INR)
66.2
68.7
71.9
RoE (%)
34.6
37.0
43.7
RoCE (%)
55.3
58.2
67.9
P/E (x)
13.3
12.0
9.7
P/BV (x)
4.6
4.4
4.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com);+9122 3982 5412/Nalin
Bhatt
(NalinBhatt@MotilalOswal.com) +9122 3982 5429
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +9122 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.