12 February 2016
Q4CY15 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Nestle India
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
22,986
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
6,981
NEST IN
96.4
487.6 / 7.5
7,500/5,010
0/-1/-6
448
37.2
CMP: INR5,057
TP: INR6,000(+19%)
Volume pain persists even ex-Maggi; gradual recovery ahead
Sales/EBITDA below estimates:
Net sales declined 22.6% YoY to INR19.5b (est.
INR21.3b). EBITDA declined 36% YoY to INR3.5b (est. INR3.9b) and adjusted PAT
declined 36.7% YoY to INR2.1b (est. INR2.1b). NEST booked an exceptional loss of
INR247m pertaining to stocks withdrawn from the market and consequent
incidental costs (storage, transportation and incineration costs). Exports declined
2.2% YoY, driven by
Maggi
issue and lower coffee exports. We note that
Maggi
Noodles was re-launched during the quarter on 9
th
November’2015. However, it
will take time before it covers the entire distribution reach of Nestle. Also, till date
only Masala variant of Maggi was available, it has now launched the Chicken
variant on 11
th
Feb’16. We expect sequential traction for Maggi to gather steam as
it rebuilds the equity and mindshare.
Reported gross margin expanded 310bps YoY to 58.5%.
Higher staff costs (up
370bps YoY to 13.1%) and other expenses (up 310bps YoY to 27.4%) resulted in
EBITDA margin contraction of 370bps YoY to 17.9% (est. 18.3%). EBITDA declined
36% YoY to INR3.5b (est. INR3.9b). Adjusted PAT declined 36.7% YoY to INR2.1b
(est. INR2.1b). Reported PAT declined 44% YoY to INR1.8b due to exceptional costs
of INR247m.
CY15 Highlights:
Sales declined 17.2% YoY to INR81b, EBITDA declined 22% YoY to
INR16b and Adj. PAT declined 21.4% YoY to INR9.8b. Net cash increased to
INR14.6b in CY15 from INR9.3b in CY14 due to increase in current investments.
Company has declared a final dividend of INR18.5/share – total dividend for CY14
stood at INR48.5/share vs. INR63/share in CY14.
Valuation and view:
We cut our estimates by 3-4% to account for the
topline/EBITDA misses. Volume growth for the portfolio (even adjusting for Maggi
issue) is flattish and reflects the underlying stress as well as competitive intensity in
Nestle’s portfolio. We like the focus of new CEO towards volume and also its
newfound aggression in some categories (price cuts/promotions in Dairy). Despite
the recent correction, stock is richly valued at 34x CY17E. Maintain
Neutral
with a
revised TP of INR6,000 [roll-over to CY17 – 40x CY17EPS].
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2015 2016E 2017E
81.2
98.3 115.3
Net Sales
16.0
19.4
22.8
EBITDA
9.8
12.0
14.5
PAT
101.8 124.2 150.4
EPS (INR)
-21.3
21.9
21.1
Gr. (%)
300.8 311.4 324.0
BV/Sh (INR)
34.2
40.6
47.3
RoE (%)
43.1
52.9
61.9
RoCE (%)
49.7
40.7
33.6
P/E (x)
16.8
16.2
15.6
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
3-4%
4%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029/
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com)