18 April 2016
4QFY16Results Update | Sector: Financials
LIC Housing Finance
LIC Housing Finance
BSE SENSEX
25,816
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. INR b /USD b
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,915
LICHF IN
505.0
235.8/3.5
526 / 389
1/8/20
1141
59.7
CMP: INR485
TP: INR582 (20%)
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E March 2016E 2017E 2018E
NII
PPP
Adj. PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoAA (%)
RoE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
D. Yield (%)
14.9
2.7
1.3
12.1
2.3
1.6
10.0
1.9
1.8
30.0
27.7
16.9
33.5
25.8
1.5
19.9
20.3
36.1
33.5
21.2
42.0
25.4
1.5
21.2
20.3
40.7
37.6
24.0
47.5
12.9
253.8
1.5
20.2
20.3
BV/Sh (INR) 181.9 215.7
LIC Housing Finance’s (LICHF) 4QFY16 net profit grew 18% YoY to INR4.48b (7%
miss). While the spreads and margins improved by 33/23bps YoY; lower than
expected loan growth of 15.5% (led by higher repayments) coupled with higher
operating expenses led to PAT miss.
Loan growth of 15.5% YoY (+6.6% QoQ) was weak led by lower retail growth of
10.4% YoY and higher repayments rate, which inched to 11.9% v/s 8.4% in FY15.
Growth in individual segment was largely driven by LAP, which grew +100% YoY
and 47%QoQ (fastest in last 8 quarters) LAP’s share has grown 240bp sequentially
to 8.8% of the loan book. Developer loans grew at a healthy rate of 26%, and its
share in overall loans increased to 2.75% v/s 2.53% a year ago. Overall
disbursements grew 33% YoY and 57% QoQ.
Calc. book spreads improved 33bp YoY to 1.79% whereas incremental spreads
were at 2.1% v/s 1.74% in FY15, margins stood at 2.71% up 24bp YoY. Strong
growth in high yielding LAP segment coupled with decline in cost of funds
continues to drive spreads improvement.
Higher operating expenses were on account of higher commissions paid for
sourcing LAP loans. Asset quality remained stable YoY with GNPAs/NNPAs at
0.45%/0.2%.
Valuation and view:
Mortgages market remains in hyper competitive mode which
is affecting growth, however, on back of continuous decline in wholesale rates
and stable yields (supported by strong growth in high yielding LAP) LICHF is able
to report superior spread and margins; resulting strong earnings growth. While
impressive performance on spreads and margin it remain key monitorables. We
largely maintain our estimates and may revise them post the earrings call. The
stock is trading at 1.9x FY18 BV.
Maintain Buy valuing stock at 2.25x FY18 P/B.
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com);
+91 22 3982 5415
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.