20 April 2016
4QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Wipro
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
25,844
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,915
WPRO IN
2,470.7
1,485.8 / 22.4
613 / 509
6/9/12
860
26.7
CMP: INR601
TP: INR600(0%)
Revenue growth turnaround will have to wait
1Q guidance again dampens full year prospects:
As has been the case in recent years,
WPRO’s dampener of a 1Q guidance yet again ruled out the likelihood of growth gap to
peers bridging in the full year. Its 1-3% QoQ CC guidance for revenue growth in 1QFY17
implies organic growth guidance of -1% to +1% as per our estimates. Assuming 0% at
the midpoint, even a 3% CQGR in the remainder of the year will leave the company
with 6% organic growth in CC in FY17.
Sluggish revenue performance ex-acquisitions:
This year’s weak 1Q guidance was
compounded by a tepid 4Q performance with CC revenue growth of 2.7%, which after
excluding acquisitions, was only 0.5% as per our estimates. IT Services EBIT margin of
20.1% was flattish QoQ (in line) and overall EBIT margin declined 50bp QoQ to 17.4%,
again below our estimate (of 18.4%), due to continued losses in the product segment.
PAT was INR22.35b, -0.4% QoQ, in line with our estimate of INR22.15b.
Payout up after adding buyback to dividends:
WPRO announced a total of INR6/share
in Dividends (pre-tax dividend of INR14.7b) and up to INR25b through the buyback.
Total payout of up to INR40b on PAT of INR89.22b in FY16 implies payout of ~45%,
compared to 34% in FY15. The company guided at sustaining ~40% payout going
forward.
Maintain Neutral on revenue underperformance:
Growth underperformance to peers
is only a part of revenue concern at WPRO. What is also notable is that the single digit
CC organic growth is lopsided in favor of India / Middle East (+20.7% YoY CC in FY16)
and APAC (+11% YoY CC), whereas Americas grew 8.5% and Europe was flat. Lest that is
addressed, even the margins will be at risk. We now expect USD revenue CAGR of 9.6%
over FY16-18 and earnings CAGR of 7.8%. Likely continued revenue underperformance
in FY17 curtails optimism at relatively lower valuation to INFO and TCS. Our target price
of INR600 discounts forward earnings by 14x. Maintain Neutral.
(INR Million)
FY15
FY16
3Q
4Q
1,795
1,775
1.3
-1.2
119,929 121,420
2.6
1.2
6.4
4.2
30.9
32.0
11.6
12.0
22.3
22.7
21.8
22.0
19.3
20.0
5,147
4,858
22.0
21.4
21,928 22,750
5.2
3.7
8.8
2.2
8.9
9.2
156,866 158,217
78.8
80.5
16.5
46.3
1814-
1850
55.5
1Q
1,794
1.1
122,376
0.8
9.9
30.7
12.2
21.3
21.0
18.5
5,286
21.2
21,877
-3.8
4.0
8.9
161,789
81.9
16.4
45.4
1821-
1857
54.5
2Q
1,832
2.1
125,135
2.3
7.1
31.4
12.4
21.8
20.7
19.0
5,138
22.4
22,354
2.2
7.2
9.1
168,396
82.3
16.4
46.1
1841-
1878
53.4
3Q
1,838
0.3
128,605
2.8
7.2
29.8
12.0
20.8
20.2
17.9
5,715
21.8
22,341
-0.1
1.9
9.1
170,664
78.0
16.3
46.2
1875-
1912
55.9
4Q
1,882
2.4
136,324
6.0
12.3
29.7
12.3
20.6
20.1
17.4
5,426
22.7
22,350
0.0
-1.8
9.1
172,912
77.5
45.8
FY16
7,346
3.7
512,440
9.1
30.4
12.2
21.1
20.5
18.2
21,565
22.1
88,922
2.7
36.1
172,912
74.9
45.9
FY17E
8,019
9.2
593,783
15.9
29.2
12.0
20.3
18.8
17.2
14,158
22.7
89,152
0.3
36.2
189,162
76.4
44.0
FY18E
8,820
10.0
675,310
13.7
29.9
11.9
21.0
19.5
18.0
11,107
22.7
101,653
14.0
42.0
207,812
76.7
44.2
Est.
4QFY16
1,910
3.9
137,354
6.8
13.1
30.2
11.8
21.3
19.9
18.4
3,158
21.8
22,153
-0.8
-2.6
9.0
175,709
80.0
45.0
Var.
(% / bp)
-1.5
-152bp
-0.7
-80bp
-85bp
-50bp
49bp
-73bp
-99bp
71.8
93bp
0.9
88bp
86bp
-1.6
-250bp
85bp
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
512.4 593.8 675.3
EBITDA
108.1 120.6 141.6
PAT
88.9
89.2 101.7
EPS (INR)
36.1
36.2
42.0
Gr. (%)
2.9
0.3
15.9
BV/Sh (INR)
189.7 200.3 229.9
RoE (%)
20.3
18.6
19.4
RoCE (%)
16.7
16.4
18.6
P/E (x)
16.6
16.6
14.3
P/BV (x)
3.2
3.0
2.6
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Quarterly Performance (IFRS)
Y/E March
Revenue (USD m)
QoQ (%)
Revenue (INR m)
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
GPM (%)
SGA (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
IT Serv. EBIT (%)
EBIT Margin (%)
Other income
ETR (%)
PAT
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
EPS (INR)
Headcount
Util excl. trainees (%)
Attrition (%)
Offshore rev. (%)
Rev Guidance (USDm)
Fixed Price (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
1,740
1.2
111,358
-4.4
14.5
32.7
12.3
22.9
22.8
20.4
4,449
21.9
21,032
-5.5
29.6
8.5
147,452
77.9
2Q
1,772
1.8
116,838
4.9
8.5
30.8
12.2
21.2
21.4
18.6
5,443
22.8
20,848
-0.9
7.9
8.5
154,297
79.4
16.1
16.5
16.5
45.7
46.3
45.7
1715-
1755 1770-1810 1808-1842
52.1
53.1
55.1
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.